The Interview - w/ Parrilla and Pal - A Macro Masterclass in Portfolio Construction and Management

The producer price index was up 11.3% year over year in June, the seventh consecutive double-digit gain, and accelerated to 1.1% from 0.9% in May on a month-over-month basis, as inflationary pressure continues to build. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest bank in the U.S. by market cap, reported a 28% decline in earnings and boosted its provision for bad loans by $428 million. And jobless claims surged to a 2022 high. That’s to say nothing of the multiple failures in the crypto space. Financial economist and author Frances Coppola, the self-proclaimed "Notorious Crypto Skeptic," joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about inflation, financial markets, and what happens when banks – both traditional and “shadow” – collapse. We also hear from Harris Kupperman about why “the whole world is going to change.” Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IEtnmu. Watch the full interview with Harris Kupperman and Stephan Clapham here: https://rvtv.io/3O8F0Dt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Jul 202239min

Registering yet another 40-year high, the consumer price index for June came in at 9.1% and solidified at least a 75 basis-point move when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month. The Bank of Canada broke the seal on 100 basis points today, and the probability of a similar move by the Federal Reserve spiked after this morning’s inflation report. Whatever the magnitude of its upcoming rate increase, what the Fed has already done will likely put the economy in recession, according to Eric Johnston, and that means earnings are likely to come down. Eric, the head of equity derivatives and cross asset for Cantor Fitzgerald, joins Maggie Lake to talk about why earnings will catalyze the next leg down for equities markets. We also hear from Shawn Hackett about how to trade amid a correction in the commodities market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ayWL0O. Watch the full Interview with Shawn Hackett here: https://rvtv.io/3uJm1Zf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Jul 202238min

We’ve yet to see the hard domestic economic data sufficient to support the case that the Federal Reserve will pause its monetary tightening program. Perhaps the June consumer price index, due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, will be that data. In the meantime, ZEW survey results for July reflect acute concern in Germany about the potential impact of a complete embargo on Russian gas, with the index of economic expectations falling to minus 53.8 from 28.0 in June. Altogether, the euro dropped to a 20-year low versus the U.S. dollar, approaching parity on fear of an energy crisis and a recession. Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about the implications of euro-dollar parity, when falling crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices will show up in inflation figures, and the complex equation that could end in a global energy crisis. We also take a quick peek at today’s Insider Talks episode with Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden about the increasingly complex macro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3avxK6C. Watch the full Insider Talks episode here: https://rvtv.io/3IxryYo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Jul 202235min

Markets meandered during a mixed Monday session, as investors bide their time ahead of Wednesday’s release of consumer price index data for June. We’re already seeing signs that tighter money is impacting real economic activity in the U.S., with homebuilders reporting steep slowdowns in sales and sharp upticks in cancellations last month. Tighter policy is also encouraging investors seeking safety, putting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar, through knock-on effects, draining even more liquidity from global markets. In his most recent note, Michael Howell reported that CrossBorder Capital’s Global Liquidity Index “is still testing a low reading of 29.5” within a range of 0 to 100. “Liquidity matters,” says Howell, CrossBorder Capital’s founder. He believes central banks are making another major error, this hammering too hard on the brake. “The world economy is now in a recession.” Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to discuss the developing “big liquidity squeeze” and the “world recession” he says is its cost. We also hear from Raoul Pal about the increasingly complex macro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yUwdjU. Watch Friday’s full Daily Briefing episode featuring Raoul Pal and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3nVsvAs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Jul 202236min

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management co-founder Jim Rogers joins Harry Melandri for a special episode of The Next Big Trade. Rogers, discussing the possibility of a bear market, notes that he doesn’t have much confidence in the Federal Reserve. He also explains why he sees a lot of value in precious metals and agricultural commodities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Jul 202232min

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Anne Stevenson-Yang, the co-founder and managing principal at J Capital Research, famously predicted the collapse of Evergrande, one of China’s biggest property developers. In China for 25 years, Anne’s been at the epicenter of its rapid economic ascent, in recent years researching opportunities on the long and short side. She joins Maggie Lake to discuss her unique career path, how her team puts together a report, and China’s history of expansion and retreat. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Jul 202248min

It was already going to be a significant Jobs Friday before the West awoke to news of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, perhaps his country’s most significant postwar leader, certainly its most consequential in the 21st century. U.S. payrolls did grow by 372,000 during June, beating the consensus forecast and pushing pause on talk of an imminent recession. Yields surged and stocks sagged this morning, as investors now anticipate a 75 basis point rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets July 26-27. Like other risk assets, Bitcoin is holding its ground in recent trading, tracking toward its best weekly since March. Raoul Pal is here with Maggie to break it all down and put it back together again. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3asy4mL. To view today's charts click here: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20220708204027/20220708_RVDB_Charts.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Jul 202251min

On the eve of one of the most consequential Jobs Fridays maybe ever, Jeffrey Snider says markets reflect an ongoing struggle between central bankers and investors. The former believe they must continue on their rate-hiking path. The latter, particularly bond investors, are showing far greater concern about economic growth. Snider, the chief strategist for Atlas Financial and the co-host of the popular Eurodollar University podcast, notes that multiple indicators, including eurodollar futures, suggest the Federal Reserve has it all wrong. Recent data show global macro deterioration; combine that with tightening liquidity conditions, and, Jeff notes, we have an equation for rising deflation. Jeff joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about investors, central bankers, and their tug of war. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3RhivyR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Jul 202237min