The Interview - w/ Parrilla and Pal - A Macro Masterclass in Portfolio Construction and Management

Christian Alexander of Macro Link is one of the best-connected insiders in the hedge fund industry -- a "Jerry Maguire" figure with a broad and deep list of contacts. Three years ago, he spoke with Roger Hirst about the future of the industry, when "easy money" was the dominant regime. And, in November, he shared his thoughts on inflation with Maggie Lake, before wholesale and consumer prices spiked to multi-decade highs. Chris joins Maggie for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to update his thesis on hedge funds’ future as the Federal Reserve prepares to launch its first rate-hiking cycle since 2015-18. How will hedge funds adjust to the new reality? And what's Chris hearing from hedge-fund insiders about inflation, markets, specific assets, and the economy? Drop your questions for Chris on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3H0f611 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Feb 202237min

“GOLD.” That’s it; that’s the tweet Jared Dillian has published twice in the last couple days, as the yellow metal has surged more than 2%. A store of value (and a medium of exchange) for millennia, gold didn’t respond as inflation fears swelled during 2021. Now that the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index are hitting multi-decade highs, though, alongside still-rising tension in Eastern Europe, it’s back in favor. Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, says 30% of his portfolio is made up of gold, silver, and precious-metals miners. And two weeks ago he tweeted, “I have a hunch that what’s coming next will make it feel like it’s not enough.” Dillian joins Real Vision Daily Briefing host Ash Bennington to talk about gold and why it remains a sound investment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3GREEgR Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

18 Feb 202234min

As detailed in the just-released minutes of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, U.S. central bankers are going to tighten faster than they did during their last rate-hiking cycle. And they’ve accelerated plans to shrink the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Still, Jerome Powell and company will be challenged to rein in inflation while keeping both investors and consumers happy. Meanwhile, Darius Dale sees in the January Producer Price Index data some light at the end of the tunnel, as the numbers suggest global supply-chain and inflation pressures may be abating. Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the big picture, including the question of whether the January stock selloff was merely prologue to a more serious crash later in 2022. Weston Nakamura joins to preview the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting, which kicks off tomorrow in Jakarta, Indonesia. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3uRAu63. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Feb 202234min

The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale prices and a key input for consumer prices, rose 1% in January, doubling the 0.5% consensus forecast. The PPI was up 9.7% year over year, easing from the 13-year-high readings of 9.8% for the previous two months. Increases were registered across the board, but goods prices continue to lead services prices. It’s more fodder for a Federal Reserve poised to start raising interest rates next month. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin has ordered some troops be pulled back from positions along the Ukrainian border and has committed to further diplomatic talks with the U.S. Equity indexes surged on apparent easing of tensions in Eastern Europe, while crude oil and natural gas prices slid on the news. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to discuss today’s developments. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3gQ2miK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Feb 202243min

Equity indexes faded into the close today, as investors continue to weigh prospects for a diplomatic solution to the simmering problem in Eastern Europe. U.S. President Joe Biden issued an ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterated his hawkish stance on inflation, noting that it may be necessary to “front-load” interest-rate hikes. But the Bank of Japan remains on the side of easy money and “yield curve control.” This divergence among central banks could have major ramifications for stock prices, particularly high-growth tech names, as Weston Nakamura explains to Real Vision’s Ash Bennington in today’s Daily Briefing. Be sure to watch Weston's YouTube video here: https://rvtv.io/3uJCXj4. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3oPv7Ax. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Feb 202235min

Renowned author, professional trader and quantitative analyst Euan Sinclair describes the subtle difference between inefficiency and risk premium in options and markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Feb 202210min

Inflation is rampant globally, and the world’s major central banks are all taking decisive measures to tighten policy in their respective ways, with the exception of one major developed market central bank: the Bank of Japan. Weston Nakamura is based in Tokyo, Japan and has been monitoring, analyzing and trading the BOJ throughout Governor Kuroda’s controversial tenure, and explains how the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy has enabled the other major central banks and governments from making tough decisions and allowed for them to keep monetary and fiscal policy loose by “exporting low yields.” Weston also warns of a major potential inflection point ahead, as global central banks retreat from policy accommodation, leaving the BOJ the sole source of policy continuity in the QE-era. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Feb 202241min

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February read 61.7, down from 67.2 in January, well short of a median estimate of 67, and the lowest print since October 2011 – even lower than April 2020, when the global economy was locked down. “To put it bluntly,” notes Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, “this was not a good report.” And the decline was largely attributable to waning confidence among the investor class, which fears the stock-market implications of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Regular consumers are simply in fear of falling behind because of inflation. An emerging Wall Street consensus now sees seven rate hikes coming down the pike, a process that could result in an inverted yield curve. And an inverted yield curve often means “recession.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be decoupling from other risk assets, perhaps on the perception that it’s an effective hedge against still-accelerating inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about next moves for the Fed amid increasing chatter about an emergency session ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s next regular meeting in March. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3HLyUX8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Feb 202235min