Lyn Alden on Gold, Real Bond Yields, and the Treasury s Bloated War Chest

Crypto Wednesday: Ari Paul, CIO & managing partner of BlockTower Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the launch of Paul's fund, value accrual in the crypto space, and how far along we are in this crypto bull market. Paul explains how he views the risk curve and how he filters through crypto projects. He describes the importance of understanding timing in the markets and how he believes crypto markets have dramatically more alpha in them than traditional markets. He closes by discussing the recent regulatory attention that the crypto space has received. Key Learnings: Paul explains the game theoretical concerns of crypto hard forks and how minority chains are insecure. He believes, "We are only in the 4th inning of this bull market cycle." Paul and Pal state that there is significantly more alpha to be found in crypto markets over traditional markets, and they expect it to remain this way for the foreseeable future. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

20 Jan 20211h 21min

DAILY BRIEFING: Tony Greer of TG Macro tells senior editor Ash Bennington why he has derisked as market sentiment spikes and the bond market continues to sell-off. Looking at indicators such as the put-to-call ratio and open call positions, Tony explains why he has sold off a series of his risk positions, most notably because of the inauguration tomorrow of President Elect Biden. Tony shares with Ash his plan of attack for various assets including grains, fertilizer stocks, and railways, which he sees as an apt way to trade rising inflation expectations. Ash and Tony discuss the continuing ascent of cryptocurrencies, and Tony describes the signals he is looking for in order to go full risk-on. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin recaps the market sentiment the day before President-elect Biden’s inauguration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

19 Jan 202135min

Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley source questions from Real Vision members via The Exchange in this special, pre-recorded edition of The Real Vision Daily Briefing. Max and Jack discuss everything from how quantitative easing impacts the economy, to who their favorite contributors are, to how the evolution of their macro frameworks have evolved as a result of working at Real Vision. In addition to sharing their thoughts on stocks, bonds, and crypto, Max and Jack consider how their relatively young age should impact their risk tolerance and portfolio construction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

18 Jan 202156min

REAL VISION LIVE REPLAY'S: Last time Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow,” was on Real Vision, he discussed why the central banks’ constant money printing to combat deflation is only a losing battle and how technology contributes to the strengthening of secular deflationary trends. With the arrival of COVID-19 this year, Jeff and Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, discuss how the pandemic has catalyzed this scenario by contextualizing it within the current market environment, as well as explore what will maintain purchasing power in the long term and avoid monetary debasement. Recorded on Sep 24, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

18 Jan 20211h 13min

Recorded on October 28, 2020. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of "fiscal dominance" where huge budget deficits invite inflation the likes of which the U.S. hasn’t seen since the 1970s. In this inflationary regime, White and Yang argue, hard commodities will be a source of massive returns. Their thesis is also shaped by their theories on capital scarcity, in which the less capital is deployed in a sector, the greater potential for return. Key learnings: Tian Yang and Simon White argue the world is on the brink of a new inflationary regime, driven by "fiscal dominance" and swollen central bank balance sheets, in which hard assets such as gold, silver, oil, gas, and coal will finally have their heyday. You can read more on the commodity supercycle here: https://rvtv.io/35kVFAd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Jan 202153min

Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a nuanced discussion of how the economic recovery will evolve over the next few months. Raoul and Ed interpret today’s dismal retail sales figures, which indicate a contraction of total retail activity for the third straight month. With the new B117 COVID-19 variant on the move, Raoul expects economic activity to continue to decline, ebbing away at the dominant reflationary trades that are short U.S. Treasurys as well as the U.S. dollar. Ed asks Raoul his thoughts on the recent storming of the U.S. Capitol, the approaching inauguration of President Elect Joe Biden, and Biden’s new $1.9 Trillion stimulus plan. Lastly, Raoul and Ed wax philosophical about “the death of macro”: what would happen if the volatility of interest rates and currencies – the bread and butter of macro investing – were extremely low over the next decade? In the intro, editor Jack Farley provides context on bank earnings and the recent short squeeze of GameStop Corp ($GME). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Jan 202145min

Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Real Vision’s new president, Travis Kimmel, to the Daily Briefing. Travis shares his Real Vision journey from an entrepreneur to a self-taught investor and outlines his macro framework for thinking inflation, credit creation, and currency flows. Travis explains why he isn’t fully convinced by the reflation narrative and why he believes that fiscal aid is more likely papering over the cracks than truly providing economic stimulus. Travis shares his view of Bitcoin, which he calls “a curious beast” and “a tabula rasa for narratives.” Lastly, Travis tells Ed about his concerns about the stable coin Tether. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the markets reacting ahead of President-elect Biden’s stimulus speech this evening, and the implications of the jobless claims rising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Jan 202143min

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Max Wiethe to discuss why he thinks US treasury yields—and not the dollar—is the key to the success or failure of the reflation trade. Together Ed and Max discuss the recent action in the bond market, the knock-on effects this has had for other reflation assets like precious metals, commodities, and equities, and the three discrete outcomes that Ed believes could arise in 2021 depending on the direction and speed of bond market moves. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of the latest Consumer Price Index data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Jan 202122min