Richard Koo: How Excessive Corporate Debt Could Thwart Future Economic Growth

Richard Koo: How Excessive Corporate Debt Could Thwart Future Economic Growth

Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, returns to Real Vision to update his framework on how key economic variables such cash, liquidity, savings, and debt have been impacted by the global recession. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Koo applies to the current situation his noted theory of a "balance sheet recession" in which liquidity is ample, but the private sector nevertheless remains focused on paying down debt. Koo and Harrison analyze the interplay between the economic shutdown and economic growth. Lastly, Koo shares his views about quantitative easing, negative interest rates, central bank digital currencies, and ongoing efforts by central banks to stem the damage wreaked by the pandemic. Recorded on January 29, 2021 Key learnings: Koo thinks that the unprecedented interventions of central banks were necessary to meet the once-in-a-lifetime crisis of COVID-19. Like many, Koo expects that economic growth will pick up once pent-up demand is unleashed. However, after this spurt of economic activity, Koo thinks that the overhang of debt could cause a significant balance sheet recession that is contractionary and deflationary. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episoder(2041)

DB-Oct 15, 2020 - Choppy Stocks and Currency Swings

DB-Oct 15, 2020 - Choppy Stocks and Currency Swings

Managing editors Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst analyze a choppy day of global market action. They look at European equities as well as currency swings in the Euro and the Australian dollar. Roger looks at gold, and Ed analyzes the effect of narrowing net interest margins on bank earnings and yield curves. They also discuss central banks’ role in facilitating fiscal stimulus as well as global debt levels and zombification. In the intro, Haley Draznin analyzes price action, Morgan Stanley’s earnings, and the re-emergence of COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Okt 202035min

DB-Oct 14, 2020 - Credit Strains and the Bank Schism

DB-Oct 14, 2020 - Credit Strains and the Bank Schism

|Credit Markets| IPOs | Bond Issuance | Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down today’s bank earnings reports and look forward to the fate of the credit markets. Ed shares his framework for understanding the K-shaped bifurcation between investment banks relying on a flurry of IPOs and bond issuance and commercial banks who are left with spotty loans and narrowing net interest margins. Jack guides viewers through the remarkable performance of Goldman Sachs, particularly their trading division, and he also shines a light on the rising credit risks in Bank of America’s loan book. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses how companies are postponing their plans to return to the office until the summer of 2021 and what the future of work arrangements may look like as remote work continues to present its pros and cons. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Okt 202035min

DB-Oct 13, 2020 - The Bond Rally and the Dollar Retracement

DB-Oct 13, 2020 - The Bond Rally and the Dollar Retracement

Daily Briefing | JPMorgan Chase| Citigroup |Finance | Investing Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of big moves today in equities, bonds, and the dollar. Greer analyzes the latest CPI reading through the lens of the ECB’s piggy-back announcement that it too would let inflation run hot. Greer then breaks down today’s bond rally as the dollar retracement coincided with significant sector rotations in the S&P 500. Bennington and Greer then analyze the latest newsflow from Washington D.C, including the status of President Trump’s health, the progress of stimulus talks in Congress, and the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. In the intro, Ash speaks to editor Jack Farley about the latest earnings reports from U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Okt 202037min

DB-Oct 12, 2020 - Real Vision AMA: A Peek Behind the Curtain

DB-Oct 12, 2020 - Real Vision AMA: A Peek Behind the Curtain

S&P 500 | VIX |Economics | Trading | Investing Managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington answer questions from the Real Vision audience in this special edition of the Daily Briefing. They discuss everything from the latest jobs numbers, to the regulatory hurdles that banks are facing, to the Real Vision editorial process. They also look at junk bond defaults and the correlation between the S&P 500 and the VIX. Lastly, they explore whether credit is “the canary in the coal mine.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Okt 202042min

The Interview - Why China Will Avoid Crisis by Any Means Necessary w/ Chris Balding and Michael Green

The Interview - Why China Will Avoid Crisis by Any Means Necessary w/ Chris Balding and Michael Green

Asia | China | Europe | GeoPolitics | Macro Technology After years living abroad in China and Vietnam, professor Chris Balding has returned to the U.S. because of concerns for his safety due to his role in exposing the data collection operations of Shenzen Zhenhua Data Technology. In this interview with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Balding lays out the initial findings from his expository research and updates viewers on the current state of affairs in China. Together they examine geopolitical tensions between China and the rest of Asia as well as China’s current relationship status with Europe and Russia. They also help viewers make sense of what is happening on the Chinese homefront and the macro factors driving capital flows into the country. Filmed on September 15, 2020. More information about the Chinese data gathering operation described in the interview can be found here: https://rvtv.io/33Cmxd7 and https://rvtv.io/3ktuDvg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Okt 20201h 10min

Has Everything Changed? with Raoul Pal

Has Everything Changed? with Raoul Pal

Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, kicks off an exciting two weeks of content on Real Vision by explaining why we are endeavoring to answer the ultimate question, "has everything changed?" As well, Pal switches hats into his role as head of GMI to update viewers on his "unfolding" thesis and his own view on the question, "has everything changed?" He argues that the insolvency phase is being signaled by banks, BBB equities, and bond yields while tech stocks are stubbornly stuck in the hope phase, which has morphed into a dangerous speculation phase. He also runs through his outlook for the roster of major global asset classes and explains why he thinks Bitcoin is "the world’s best trade." Filmed on September 17, 2020 and Aired on September 21 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Okt 202043min

DB-Oct 9, 2020 - Software’s ever-tightening grip on the economy w/ Raoul Pal.

DB-Oct 9, 2020 - Software’s ever-tightening grip on the economy w/ Raoul Pal.

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to look back at market action and make sense of several secular trends. Raoul shares several of the lessons from his interview with “The Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach, which leads into a discussion about changes to risk appetite and time horizon within the hedge fund industry. Raoul and Ash then discuss the latest banning of crypto derivatives for amateur investors. They close by discussing wage deflation and software’s ever-tightening grip on the economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

9 Okt 202034min

DB - Oct 8, 2020 - Inflation Expectations and Its Effect on Treasuries and Currencies

DB - Oct 8, 2020 - Inflation Expectations and Its Effect on Treasuries and Currencies

Ed Harrison and Roger Hirst break down some of the most significant price action they're seeing in markets. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains the back-and-forth on fiscal stimulus negotiations and why the Fed could issue a monetary policy offset to try and sustain economic momentum. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Okt 202027min

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