Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

Are We Still Heading for a Recession? w/ David Rosenberg

🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/41tyn6M. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Ash Bennington to share his views on the current state of the economy, a growing disconnect between supply and demand, and what it means for the potential of a recession. David also discusses the bubble he sees forming in the stock market, and where he's spotting investment opportunities. Recorded on Thursday, June 20th. This episode is brought to you by TOKEN2049 Singapore. Join over 20,000 attendees for the world’s largest crypto event: TOKEN2049 Singapore on 18 to 19 September. 🔥 Visit www.realvision.com/token2049 for 15% off tickets, only with the code 'REALVISION’. Timestamps: 00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 01:01 - Introduction of David Rosenberg 01:37 - David's perspective on the current economy 02:18 - Comparison to the 2007 economic outlook 03:33 - Recession pressures and the business cycle 04:11 - Impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy 05:25 - Credit card debt and delinquency rates 06:41 - Changes in consumer behavior and credit card balances 07:53 - The role of excess savings and stimulus checks 08:27 - San Francisco Fed report on excess savings 09:02 - Consumer revolt against high prices 10:06 - Discrepancy between current economic conditions and the Fed's statements 11:23 - Historical comparisons to 2008 and recession signals 12:34 - Overstated non-farm payrolls and data revisions 13:37 - Signs of a potential recession in various economic sectors 14:13 - GDP growth and economic activity slowing down 15:17 - Lack of catalysts for re-acceleration in growth 16:26 - Importance of supply and demand in forecasting inflation 18:11 - Expectations for disinflation and Fed rate cuts 19:20 - Discussion on current trend growth and productivity gains 21:04 - Labor force participation and its impact on the economy 22:15 - Disconnect between productivity gains and aggregate demand 23:26 - Impact of housing and consumer behavior on the economy 24:34 - Global economic conditions and their effect on US exports 25:40 - Outlook on inflation and interest rates without a recession 26:16 - Increasing unemployment rate and its impact on wages 27:23 - Supply curve dynamics leading to disinflation 28:43 - Capacity growth in the industrial sector 29:18 - Expectations for inflation to reach the Fed's target 30:26 - Implications for asset prices and the stock market 31:39 - Concentration risk and the impact of high-performing tech stocks 33:33 - Concerns about excessive valuations and investor behavior 35:08 - Importance of thematic investing and capital preservation 36:50 - Sectors with growth potential: Aerospace, defense, utilities, and healthcare 38:57 - Trading down and frugality trends among consumers 40:14 - Staples and essential sectors as investment opportunities 41:37 - Utilities as a growth area due to climate change and infrastructure needs 43:17 - The role of gold and gold mining stocks in a disinflationary environment 44:56 - Impact of passive indexation on market distortions 46:41 - Risks of bubble bursts and historical parallels 48:02 - Potential market corrections and investor psychology 50:13 - Advice on profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing 51:57 - Importance of capital preservation and conservative investing 52:36 - Final thoughts on the current market cycle 53:47 - Importance of historical context in investing decisions 54:33 - Sentiment and psychology driving market behavior 55:52 - Recommendations for protective strategies in investing Elevate your brand with Real Vision. Connect with us at partnerships@realvision.com to explore advertising possibilities. Disclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episoder(2002)

Mark Ritchie II — The Critical Tell for the Stock Market

Mark Ritchie II — The Critical Tell for the Stock Market

Mark Ritchie II, CIO of RTM Capital Advisors, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to discuss how he has re-positioned his investments after going 100% cash in December. He believes that the reaction to the Fed’s cut over these next few weeks are crucial to market tone for the next six to nine months. Filmed on July 2019 in New York - introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

8 Nov 201923min

What Will a Recession Do to Venture Capital? With Josh Wolfe and Raoul Pal

What Will a Recession Do to Venture Capital? With Josh Wolfe and Raoul Pal

Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, sits down with Raoul Pal to examine the indicators that are warning that the economic cycle is reaching an inflection point. Wolfe and Pal discuss the idea that inflated valuations in venture capital are being caused by the incremental buyer’s desperate search for growth. Wolfe warns that if the cycle indeed turns, a liquidity crisis could emerge. Filmed on July 9, 2019 in New York. Introduction by Drew Bessette.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Nov 201935min

Gold & “The Bitcoin Standard” with Saifedean Ammous and Marty Bent

Gold & “The Bitcoin Standard” with Saifedean Ammous and Marty Bent

Is there a path for bitcoin to become the new gold standard? Economist Saifedean Ammous, author of the ‘The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking,’ joins Real Vision to share his views on both gold & bitcoin. From an Austrian perspective, he points out the paradoxes of Keynesianism and details the implications his thesis might have on the global monetary system. Hosted by Marty Bent. Filmed on October 9, 2019 in New York. Introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

25 Okt 20191h 9min

China vs. The U.S.: Trade War to Cold War? (with Kyle Bass and Robert Spalding)

China vs. The U.S.: Trade War to Cold War? (with Kyle Bass and Robert Spalding)

Kyle Bass sits down with retired Brigadier General Robert Spalding to discuss the reality inside China. Spalding spent years living in China as Defense Attache in Bejing & served as the chief China strategist for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Spalding has deep knowledge of the people, culture, economy, & military of China in and examines the multifaceted threat to the US posed by the rising Asian superpower. Filmed on September 27, 2019 in Washington D.C. - Introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

18 Okt 20191h 4min

The Gold vs. Bitcoin Debate with Barry Silbert and Roy Sebag

The Gold vs. Bitcoin Debate with Barry Silbert and Roy Sebag

Earlier this summer, we released two interviews debating Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s “Drop Gold,” campaign. Grayscale is a subsidiary of Digital Currency Group founded by Barry Silbert. He provides the argument for Bitcoin and explains the thinking behind the “Drop Gold,” campaign to Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal. Then Roy Sebag, CEO and founder of Goldmoney, provides his rebuttal to Stephan Spears of McEwen Mining. These interviews were published June 2019. Introduction by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

11 Okt 201946min

Understanding Dollar Repo Madness with Danielle DiMartino Booth and George Goncalves

Understanding Dollar Repo Madness with Danielle DiMartino Booth and George Goncalves

Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at Quill Intelligence, interviews George Goncalves of The Bond Strategist in his first appearance on Real Vision. As former insiders of the Dallas Fed and US Treasury primary dealers, Danielle and George deconstruct the US Dollar liquidity problems and help clarify the major structural issues confronting the repo markets. Filmed on September 18, 2019 in New York - introduction provided by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Okt 201940min

The Chinese Mirage with Chris Balding

The Chinese Mirage with Chris Balding

Christopher Balding, associate professor at Fulbright University Vietnam, delves into the many layers of the Chinese economy with Mike Green of Thiel Macro. Balding and Green discuss the inconsistencies in the overarching bullish narrative on China, and explain how the debt machine works in the Chinese real estate markets. Filmed on August 27, 2019 in Los Angeles and published on Real Vision September 6, 2019 - introduced by Drew Bessette. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Sep 20191h 5min

WeWork, Amazon, Fannie Mae and Berkshire: Whitney Tilson’s Hedge Fund Odyssey

WeWork, Amazon, Fannie Mae and Berkshire: Whitney Tilson’s Hedge Fund Odyssey

Whitney Tilson details his transformation from momentum trader to an investor living by Warren Buffett’s advice that “it’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” Tilson shares his views on WeWork’s IPO trouble, Amazon, Fannie Mae, and beaten-up European financials. This interview was published as a video on Real Vision in September, and the podcast introduction is provided by Alex Rosenberg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

20 Sep 20191h 7min

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