Tim Dower: There's a lot at stake in this election

Really? New Zealand First... really?

I mean, I know it's a pretty desperate time... we're all a bit lost and confused and disappointed, frustrated and seriously peed off at the state of the country right now.

But to see a poll showing New Zealand First potentially over the five percent threshold? I guess it shows how desperate things are for a lot of people.

It's not my place to tell you how to vote, or how not to vote, but what I will say is: just think of the history.

Think of the dramas, the twists and turns, how you thought you had a clear commitment on something, only to see a complete 180 when it comes to the crunch.

Think how many times we've been held to ransom, double-crossed, gaslit, and bullshitted... you really wanna go there again?

I've heard Chris Luxon saying he's focused on National and getting the best result he can, and I think that's the right tack to take.

But I suspect he and other senior figures in the party will be disappointed that they're not yet winning over more of the centre-right or right leaning vote.

ACT has been doing well, and while you want your potential coalition partner to be strong and well run, it's not so much fun when they're eating your lunch.

The conclusion has to be that National has a way to go in getting its message across properly, hitting the right buttons and doing it convincingly.

If it was, what we saw in the Talbot Mills poll last night wouldn't be happening.

People whose natural tendency would be to vote for the Nats aren't convinced. They're not happy. This is a disaffected protest vote.

There's still a long way to go, five weeks of campaigning yet, and of course people don't necessarily always tell pollsters the truth.

To my mind, what we need from this election is a clear decision, one way or the other.

There's a lot at stake. It's not a game.

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