US Economy: What Could Go Wrong

As equity markets gyrate in response to unpredictable U.S. policy, credit has taken longer to respond. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research, Andrew Sheets, suggests other indicators investors should have an eye on, including growth data.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today on the podcast, I’ll be discussing how much comfort or concern equity and credit markets should be taking from each other’s recent moves.It’s Friday, March 14th at 2pm in London. Credit has weakened as markets have gyrated in the face of rising uncertainty around U.S. economic policy. But it has been a clear outperformer. The credit market has taken longer to react to recent headlines, and seen a far more modest response to them. While the U.S. stock market, measured as the S&P 500, is down about 10 per cent, the U.S. High Yield bond index, comprised of lower-rated corporate bonds, is down about just 1 per cent.How much comfort should stock markets take from credit’s resilience? And what could cause Credit to now catch-down to that larger weakness in equities?A good place to start with these questions is what we think are really three distinct stories behind the volatility and weakness that we’re seeing in markets. First, the nature of U.S. policy towards tariffs, with plenty of on-again, off-again drama, has weakened business confidence and dealmaking; and that’s cut off a key source of corporate animal spirits and potential upside in the market. Second and somewhat relatedly, that reduced upside has lowered enthusiasm for many of the stocks that had previously been doing the best. Many of these stocks were widely held, and that’s created vulnerability and forced selling as previously popular positions were cut. And third, there have been growing concerns that this lower confidence from businesses and consumers will spill over into actual spending, and raise the odds of weaker growth and even a recession.I think a lot of credit’s resilience over the last month and a half, can be chalked up to the fact that the asset class is rightfully more relaxed about the first two of these issues. Lower corporate confidence may be a problem for the stock market, but it can actually be an ok thing if you’re a lender because it keeps borrowers more conservative. And somewhat relatedly, the sell-off in popular, high-flying stocks is also less of an issue. A lot of these companies are, for the most part, quite different from the issuers that dominate the corporate credit market.But the third issue, however, is a big deal. Credit is extremely sensitive to large changes in the economy. Morgan Stanley’s recent downgrade of U.S. growth expectations, the lower prices on key commodities, the lower yields on government bonds and the underperformance of smaller more cyclical stocks are all potential signs that risks to growth are rising. It's these factors that the credit market, perhaps a little bit belatedly, is now reacting to.So what does this all mean?First, we’re mindful of the temptation for equity investors to look over at the credit market and take comfort from its resilience. But remember, two of the biggest issues that have faced stocks – those lower odds of animal spirits, and the heavy concentration in a lot of the same names – were never really a credit story. And so to feel better about those risks, we think you’ll want to look at other different indicators.Second, what about the risk from the other direction, that credit catches up – or maybe more accurately down – to the stock market? This is all about that third factor: growth. If the growth data holds up, we think credit investors will feel justified in their more modest reaction, as all-in yields remain good. But if data weakens, the risks to credit grow rapidly, especially as our U.S. economists think that the Fed could struggle to lower interest rates as fast as markets are currently hoping they will.And so with growth so important, and Morgan Stanley’s tracking estimates for U.S. growth currently weak, we think it's too early to go bottom fishing in corporate bonds. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

14 Mar 4min

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya discusses the early indications of India’s economic recovery and why the country looks best-positioned in the region for growth.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Asia Economist. Today I’ll be taking a look at the Indian economy amidst escalating trade tensions in Asia and around the globe. It’s Thursday, March 13, at 2pm in Hong Kong.Over the last few months, investors have been skeptical about India’s growth narrative. Investors – like us – have been caught off-guard by the surprising recent slowdown in India’s growth. With the benefit of hindsight, we can very clearly attribute the slowdown to an unexpected double tightening of fiscal and monetary policy. But India seems to be on its way to recovery. Green shoots are already emerging in recent data. And we believe the recovery will continue to firm up over the coming months. What makes us so confident in our outlook for India? We see several key factors behind this trend: First, fiscal policy’s turning supportive for growth again. The government has been ramping up capital expenditure for infrastructure projects like roads and railways, with growth accelerating markedly in recent months. They have also cut income tax for households which will be effective from April 2025. Second, monetary policy easing across rates, liquidity, and the regulatory front. With CPI inflation recently printing at just 3.6 per cent which is below target, we believe the central bank will continue to pursue easy monetary policy. And third, moderation in food inflation will mean real household incomes will be lifted. Finally, the strength in services exports. Services exports include IT services, and increasingly business services. In fact, post-COVID India’s had very strong growth in business services exports. And the key reason for that is, post-COVID, I think businesses have come to realize that if you can work from home, you can work from Bangalore. India's services exports have nearly doubled since December 2020, outpacing the 40 per cent rise in goods exports over the same period. This has resulted in services exports reaching $410 billion on an annualized basis in January, almost equal to the $430 billion of goods exports. Moreover, India continues to gain market share in services exports, which now account for 4.5 per cent of the global total, up from 4 per cent in 2020. To be sure there are some risks. India does face reciprocal tariff risks due to its large trade surplus with the US and high tariff rates that India imposes select imports from the U.S. But we believe that by September-October this year, India can reach a trade deal with the U.S. In any case, India's goods exports-to-GDP ratio is the lowest in the region. And even if global trade slows down due to tariff uncertainties, India's economy won't be as severely affected. In fact, it could potentially outperform the other economies in the region.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

13 Mar 3min

While tariffs continue to dominate headlines, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas suggests investors should also focus on the sectoral impacts of additional U.S. policy choices.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today, we’ll be talking about U.S. policy impacts on the market that aren’t about tariffs.It’s Wednesday, March 12th, at 10:30am in New York.If tariffs are dominating your attention, we sympathize. Again this week we heard the U.S. commit to raising tariffs and work out a resolution, this time all within the span of a workday. These twists and turns in the tariff path are likely to continue, but in the meantime it might make sense for investors to take some time to look away – instead focusing on some key sectoral impacts of U.S. policy choices that our Research colleagues have called out. For example, Andrew Percoco, who leads our Clean Energy Equity Research team, calls out that clean Energy stocks may be pricing in too high a probability of an Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) repeal. He cites a letter signed by 18 Republicans urging the speaker of the house to protect some of the energy tax credits in the IRA. That’s a good call out, in our view. Republicans’ slim majority means only a handful need to oppose a legislative action in order to block its enactment. Another example is around Managed Care companies. Erin Wright, who leads our Healthcare Services Research Effort, analyzed the impact to companies of cuts to the Medicaid program and found the impact to their sector’s bottom line to be manageable. So, keeping an in-line view for the sector. We think the sector won’t ultimately face this risk, as, like with the IRA, we do not expect there to be sufficient Republican votes to enact the cuts. Finally, Patrick Wood, who leads the Medtech team, caught up with a former FDA director to talk about how staffing cuts might affect the industry. In short, expect delays in approvals of new medical technologies. In particular, it seems the risk is most acute in the most cutting edge technologies, where skilled FDA staff are hard to find. Neurology and brain/computer interfaces stand out as areas of development that might slow in this market sector. All that said, if you just can’t turn away from tariffs, we reiterate our guidance here: Tariffs are likely going up, even if the precise path is uncertain. And whether or not you’re constructive on the goals the administration is attempting to achieve, the path to achieving them carries costs and execution risk. Our U.S. economics team’s recent downgrade of the U.S. growth outlook for this and next year exemplifies this. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

12 Mar 2min

Our analysts Adam Jonas and Michelle Weaver share a glimpse into the future from Morgan Stanley’s Annual Tech, Media, and Telecom (TMT) Conference, as agentic AI powers autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots and more.

11 Mar 11min

Our Head of U.S. IT Hardware Erik Woodring gives his key takeaways from Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media and Telecom (TMT) conference, including why there appears to be a long runway ahead for AI infrastructure spending, despite macro uncertainty. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley’s Head of U.S. IT Hardware Research. Here are some reflections I recorded last week at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media, and Telecom Conference in San Francisco. It’s Monday, March 10th at 9am in New York. This was another year of record attendance at our TMT Conference. And what is clear from speaking to investors is that the demand for new, under-discovered or under-appreciated ideas is higher than ever. In a stock-pickers’ market – like the one we have now – investors are really digging into themes and single name ideas. Big picture – uncertainty was a key theme this week. Whether it’s tariffs and the changing geopolitical landscape, market volatility, or government spending, the level of relative uncertainty is elevated. That said, we are not hearing about a material change in demand for PCs, smartphones, and other technology hardware. On the enterprise side of my coverage, we are emerging from one of the most prolonged downcycles in the last 10-plus years, and what we heard from several enterprise hardware vendors and others is an expectation that most enterprise hardware markets – PCs , Servers, and Storage – return to growth this year given pent up refresh demand. This, despite the challenges of navigating the tariff situation, which is resulting in most companies raising prices to mitigate higher input costs. On the consumer side of the world, the demand environment for more discretionary products like speakers, cameras, PCs and other endpoint devices looks a bit more challenged. The recent downtick in consumer sentiment is contributing to this environment given the close correlation between sentiment and discretionary spending on consumer technology goods. Against this backdrop, the most dynamic topic of the conference remains GenerativeAI. What I’ve been hearing is a confidence that new GenAI solutions can increasingly meet the needs of market participants. They also continue to evolve rapidly and build momentum towards successful GenAI monetization. To this point, underlying infrastructure spending—on servers, storage and other data center componentry – to enable these emerging AI solutions remains robust. To put some numbers behind this, the 10 largest cloud customers are spending upwards of [$]350 billion this year in capex, which is up over 30 percent year-over-year. Keep in mind that this is coming off the strongest year of growth on record in 2024. Early indications for 2026 CapEx spending still point to growth, albeit a deceleration from 2025. And what’s even more compelling is that it’s still early days. My fireside chats this week highlighted that AI infrastructure spending from their largest and most sophisticated customers is only in the second inning, while AI investments from enterprises, down to small and mid-sized businesses, is only in the first inning, or maybe even earlier. So there appears to be a long runway ahead for AI infrastructure spending, despite the volatility we have seen in AI infrastructure stocks, which we see as an opportunity for investors. I’d just highlight that amidst the elevated market uncertainty, there is a prioritization on cost efficiencies and adopting GenAI to drive these efficiencies. Company executives from some of the major players this week all discussed near-term cost efficiency initiatives, and we expect these efforts to both help protect the bottom line and drive productivity growth amidst a quickly changing market backdrop. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

10 Mar 4min

While policy noise continues to dominate the headlines, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas points out a key theme: a transition toward a multipolar world.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today we’ll be discussing what investors need to focus on amidst all the U.S. policy headlines.It’s Friday, March 7th, at 12:30 pm in New York.In recent weeks the news flow on tariffs, immigration, and geopolitics has been relentless, culminating in this week’s state of the union address by President Trump and, if headlines hold, a partial reversal in course on Mexico and Canada tariffs that were just levied earlier this week. Understandably, measures of policy uncertainty, such as the Baker, Bloom, and Davis index, have reached all time highs. And this tracks with the confusion expressed by investing and corporate clients. In our view, this policy noise is going to continue. But, there is an important signal. These developments track with one of our four key themes of 2025. The transition toward a multipolar world. The tense White House meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelensky, played out live in front of the news cameras, was another reminder that the U.S. is evolving its role in driving international affairs. And tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China are a reminder of the U.S.’s interest in rewiring global trade. The reasons behind this are myriad and complex, but in the near term it's about the U.S. looking more inward. Economic populism is, well, popular with voters in both parties. There’s a few net takeaways for investors here. One is a positive for the European defense sector. The combination of tariffs and the evolving U.S. posture on global security has long been part of our thesis on why Europe would eventually chart a new path and step up to spend more on defense. The current situation in Russia and Ukraine underscores this, with potential for another $0.9-$2.7 trillion in defense spending through 2035. Germany’s new ‘whatever it takes’ approach to defense spending is a key signpost in this trend, per our colleagues in European economics, equities, and foreign exchange. Another critical takeaway is around the effects of U.S. trade realignment on both macro markets and equity sector preferences. Whether these trade policy changes play out well over time or not, the attempt costs something in the near term. Tariffs are part of that cost. And while the precise path of tariff increases is unclear, what is clear is that they’re headed higher in the aggregate, a tactic in service of the administration’s goal of reducing trade deficits and creating reciprocal trade barriers in order to incentivize greater production in the U.S. Over the next year, our economists expect that those tariff costs will crimp economic activity. That slower growth should eventually feed through into a more dovish monetary policy. Both factors, in the view of our U.S. rates strategy team, should continue pushing yields lower – good news for bond investors, but more challenging posture for equity investors, and a key reason our cross asset team is currently flagging a preference for fixed income. That tariff activity should also drive supply chain realignment. But, going forward, changing those supply chains may now be more costly. Per work from our Global economics team, the supply chains that need to be moved now are complex and concentrated in geopolitical rivals. That’s a challenge for certain sectors, like U.S. IT hardware and consumer discretionary. But the investment to make it happen creates demand and is a benefit for the capital goods and broader industrials sector. Bottom line, the policy noise will continue, as will the market cross currents it’s driving. We’ll keep you informed on it all here. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

7 Mar 3min

Recorded at our 2025 Technology, Media and Telecom (TMT) Conference, TMT Credit Research Analyst Lindsay Tyler joins Head of Investment Grade Debt Coverage Michelle Wang to discuss the how the industry is strategically raising capital to fund growth.----- Transcript -----Lindsay Tyler: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Lindsay Tyler, Morgan Stanley's Lead Investment Grade TMT Credit Research Analyst, and I'm here with Michelle Wang, Head of Investment Grade Debt Coverage in Global Capital Markets.On this special episode, we're recording at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) Conference, and we will discuss the latest on the technology space from the fixed income perspective.It's Thursday, March 6th at 12 pm in San Francisco.What a week it's been. Last I heard, we had over 350 companies here in attendance.To set the stage for our discussion, technology has grown from about 2 percent of the broader investment grade market – about two decades ago – to almost 10 percent now; though that is still relatively a small percentage, relative to the weightings in the equity market.So, can you address two questions? First, why was tech historically such a small part of investment grade? And then second, what has driven the growth sense?Michelle Wang: Technology is still a relatively young industry, right? I'm in my 40s and well over 90 percent of the companies that I cover were founded well within my lifetime. And if you add to that the fact that investment grade debt is, by definition, a later stage capital raising tool. When the business of these companies reaches sufficient scale and cash generation to be rated investment grade by the rating agencies, you wind up with just a small subset of the overall investment grade universe.The second question on what has been driving the growth? Twofold. Number one the organic maturation of the tech industry results in an increasing number of scaled investment grade companies. And then secondly, the increasing use of debt as a cheap source of capital to fund their growth. This could be to fund R&D or CapEx or, in some cases, M&A.Lindsay Tyler: Right, and I would just add in this context that my view for this year on technology credit is a more neutral one, and that's against a backdrop of being more cautious on the communications and media space.And part of that is just driven by the spread compression and the lack of dispersion that we see in the market. And you mentioned M&A and capital allocation; I do think that financial policy and changes there, whether it's investment, M&A, shareholder returns – that will be the main driver of credit spreads.But let's turn back to the conference and on the – you know, I mentioned investment. Let's talk about investment.AI has dominated the conversation here at the conference the past two years, and this year is no different. Morgan Stanley's research department has four key investment themes. One of those is AI and tech diffusion.But from the fixed income angle, there is that focus on ongoing and upcoming hyperscaler AI CapEx needs.Michelle Wang: Yep.Lindsay Tyler: There are significant cash flows generated by many of these companies, but we just discussed that the investment grade tech space has grown relative to the index in recent history.Can you discuss the scale of the technology CapEx that we're talking about and the related implications from your perspective?Michelle Wang: Let's actually get into some of the numbers. So in the past three years, total hyperscaler CapEx has increased from [$]125 billion three years ago to [$]220 billion today; and is expected to exceed [$]300 billion in 2027.The hyperscalers have all publicly stated that generative AI is key to their future growth aspirations. So, why are they spending all this money? They're investing heavily in the digital infrastructure to propel this growth. These companies, however, as you've pointed out, are some of the most scaled, best capitalized companies in the entire world. They have a combined market cap of [$]9 trillion. Among them, their balance sheet cash ranges from [$]70 to [$]100 billion per company. And their annual free cash flow, so the money that they generate organically, ranges from [$]30 to [$]75 billion.So they can certainly fund some of this CapEx organically. However, the unprecedented amount of spend for GenAI raises the probability that these hyperscalers could choose to raise capital externally.Lindsay Tyler: Got it.Michelle Wang: Now, how this capital is raised is where it gets really interesting. The most straightforward way to raise capital for a lot of these companies is just to do an investment grade bond deal.Lindsay Tyler: Yep.Michelle Wang: However, there are other more customized funding solutions available for them to achieve objectives like more favorable accounting or rating agency treatment, ways for them to offload some of their CapEx to a private credit firm. Even if that means that these occur at a higher cost of capital.Lindsay Tyler: You touched on private credit. I'd love to dig in there. These bespoke capital solutions.Michelle Wang: Right.Lindsay Tyler: I have seen it in the semiconductor space and telecom infrastructure, but can you please just shed some more light, right? How has this trend come to fruition? How are companies assessing the opportunity? And what are other key implications that you would flag?Michelle Wang: Yeah, for the benefit of the audience, Lindsay, I think just to touch a little bit…Lindsay Tyler: Some definitions,Michelle Wang: Yes, some definitions around ...Lindsay Tyler: Get some context.Michelle Wang: What we’re talking about.Lindsay Tyler: Yes.So the – I think what you're referring to is investment grade companies doing asset level financing. Usually in conjunction with a private credit firm, and like all financing trends that came before it, all good financing trends, this one also resulted from the serendipitous intersection of supply and demand of capital.On the supply of capital, the private credit pocket of capital driven by large pockets of insurance capital is now north of $2 trillion and it has increased 10x in scale in the past decade. So, the need to deploy these funds is driving these private credit firms to seek out ways to invest in investment grade companies in a yield enhanced manner.Lindsay Tyler: Right. And typically, we're saying 150 to 200 basis points greater than what maybe an IG bond would yield.Michelle Wang: That's exactly right. That's when it starts to get interesting for them, right? And then the demand of capital, the demand for this type of capital, that's always existed in other industries that are more asset-heavy like telcos.However, the new development of late is the demand for capital from tech due to two megatrends that we're seeing in tech. The first is semiconductors. Building these chip factories is an extremely capital-intensive exercise, so creates a demand for capital. And then the second megatrend is what we've seen with the hyperscalers and GenerativeAI needs. Building data centers and digital infrastructure for GenerativeAI is also extremely expensive, and that creates another pocket of demand for capital that private credit conveniently kinda serves a role in.Lindsay Tyler: Right.Michelle Wang: So look, think we've talked about the ways that companies are using these tools. I'm interested to get your view, Lindsay, on the investor perspective.Lindsay Tyler: Sure.Michelle Wang: How do investors think about some of these more bespoke solutions?Lindsay Tyler: I would say that with deals that have this touch of extra complexity, it does feel that investor communication and understanding is all important. And I have found that, some of these points that you're raising – whether it's the spread pickup and the insurance capital at the asset managers and also layering in ratings implications and the deal terms. I think all of that is important for investors to get more comfortable and have a better understanding of these types of deals.The last topic I do want us to address is the macro environment. This has been another key theme with the conference and with this recent earnings season, so whether it's rate moves this year, the talk of M& A, tariffs – what's your sense on how companies are viewing and assessing macro in their decision making?Michelle Wang: There are three components to how they're thinking about it.The first is the rate move. So, the fact that we're 50 to 60 basis points lower in Treasury yields in the past month, that's welcome news for any company looking to issue debt. The second thing I'll say here is about credit spreads. They remain extremely tight. Speaking to the incredible kind of resilience of the investment grade investor base. The last thing I'll talk about is, I think, the uncertainty. [Because] that's what we're hearing a ton about in all the conversations that we've had with companies that have presented here today at the conference.Lindsay Tyler: Yeah. For my perspective, also the regulatory environment around that M&A, whether or not companies will make the move to maybe be more acquisitive with the current new administration.Michelle Wang: Right, so until the dust settles on some of these issues, it's really difficult as a corporate decision maker to do things like big transformative M&A, to make a company public when you don't know what could happen both from a the market environment and, as you point out, regulatory standpoint.The thing that's interesting is that raising debt capital as an investment grade company has some counter cyclical dynamics to it. Because risk-off sentiment usually translates into lower treasury yields and more favorable cost of debt.And then the second point is when companies are risk averse it drives sometimes cash hoarding behavior, right? So, companies will raise what they call, you know, rainy day liquidity and park it on balance sheet – just to feel a little bit better about where their balance sheets are. To make sure they're in good shape…Lindsay Tyler: Yeah, deal with the maturities that they have right here in the near term.Michelle Wang: That's exactly right. So, I think as a consequence of that, you know, we do see some tailwinds for debt issuance volumes in an uncertain environment.Lindsay Tyler: Got it. Well, appreciate all your insights. This has been great. Thank you for taking the time, Michelle, to talk during such a busy week.Michelle Wang: It's great speaking with you, Lindsay.Lindsay Tyler: And thanks to everyone listening in to this special episode recorded at the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference in San Francisco. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

6 Mar 10min

While central bank policy will always matter for markets, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why investors should not be worried about the number of Fed cuts in 2025.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I’m going to talk about why the number of Fed rate cuts this year may matter less than you think.It's Wednesday, March 5th, at 2pm in London.Financial markets spend a lot of time discussing the Federal Reserve. And for good reason. The central bank of the world’s largest economy plays a central role in fighting inflation and setting interest rates. And what they’ll do this year is topical and shifting. At Morgan Stanley, our economists think that US Tariff and Immigration policy will lead the Fed to keep rates somewhat higher, for somewhat longer, than they did at the start of the year.Yet we think there may be just a little bit too much focus on just how much the Fed changes policy over the course of the year. Indeed, we’d go as far as to say that given the choice, investors should be rooting for less change, not more.To start, for all that’s happened in the world since the end of October of 2024, expectations for the Fed’s interest rate path have been remarkably stable. The US 2-year Treasury, which is a decent proxy of where the Fed’s rate will average over the next 24 months, has hovered in a very narrow range. It simply hasn’t been telling us very much; other factors have been moving markets.There’s also a pretty reasonable rule of thumb from history: stability is good. A stable Fed funds rate, almost by definition, implies a stable equilibrium that doesn’t involve overly high inflation pushing rates further up, or overly weak growth pushing them further down. The best growth in recent history, in the mid-1990s, occurred after the Fed reduced interest rates less than one-percent, and then kept them stable, at a pretty elevated rate for a pretty extended period of time.Large changes in rates, on the other hand, in either direction are a different story. Some of the markets worst losses have coincided with the largest declines in the Fed’s target rate – because those large rate cuts usually occur only when there is a large, unexpected slowing in the economy; something markets often don’t like.Meanwhile, we think the Fed also very much wants to avoid a scenario where it has to start raising rates again, given the potential confusion that this could signal after it only recently continued to lower them. And so if over the course of this year, the Fed does need to raise rates, given the very high bar we think they’ve given themselves for action – it probably suggests that something unexpected, and not in a necessarily good way, has occurred.Central bank policy will always matter for markets. But for investors, the question of whether the Fed will cut once, which is the Morgan Stanley base-case, twice, or not at all in 2025 may not matter all that much, at least for credit. Far more important is the performance of the economy, and whether big changes to tariffs or immigration policy drive big changes to growth and inflation. Those big changes, which could drive big changes in Fed policy responses, are the scenario that worries us.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

6 Mar 3min