Hold Your Fire!25 Mar 2022

Decoding Russia’s Nuclear Threats over Ukraine

Since Russian forces crossed en masse the Ukrainian border a month ago, the war has been overshadowed by Moscow’s nuclear menacing. Vladimir Putin has made thinly veiled threats of nuclear escalation as a way to deter other governments coming to Ukraine’s aid. He also announced he was placing Russian nuclear deterrence forces on “high alert”, though the meaning of that is not entirely clear. Recent proclamations by Russian officials that Ukraine might use biological and chemical weapons add to concerns that Russia is laying the ground for its own use of such weapons.

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Program Director, discuss the significance of Russia’s nuclear threats and what they aim to achieve. They talk about Russia’s nuclear doctrine and widespread perceptions in Western capitals about its “escalate to de-escalate” policy. Olya also runs through Moscow’s failure to conquer Ukraine quickly in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance, backed by Western arms supplies, and what that might mean for the Kremlin’s calculations. They talk about the potential dangers of greater NATO involvement, scenarios that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons, what that would mean and ways of minimising risks of a catastrophic nuclear confrontation.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine country page and make sure to read our recent statement, “Avoiding an Even Worse Catastrophe in Ukraine” and Olga’s recent piece for Foreign Affairs, “Putin’s Nuclear Bluff”.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Denne episoden er hentet fra en åpen RSS-feed og er ikke publisert av Podme. Den kan derfor inneholde annonser.

Episoder(234)

U.S.-Iran Diplomacy and Middle East Politics

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Middle East director Rob Malley about the state of U.S.-Iran negotiations and how the aftermath of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran ...

6 Jul 1h 8min

Will “El Tigre” Colombia’s New President Launch Another War on Drugs?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Elizabeth Dickinson about Colombia’s presidential election, in which right-wing outsider Abelardo “El Tig...

26 Jun 48min

What’s Happening in Afghanistan

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ibraheem Bahiss, Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert based in Kabul, to assess where the country stands nearly five years after the Taliban’s ret...

22 Jun 59min

Special Episode: U.S. and Iran Find an Off-ramp?

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran director, to unpack the memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday to shore ...

16 Jun 28min

100 Days Later: Can Trump Find an Off Ramp in the Gulf?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Naysan Rafati, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Hanna about the shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the state of negot...

6 Jun 1h 10min

India’s Kashmir and Manipur Conflicts and their Consequences

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi about escalating ethnic violence in Manipur and militancy in India-administered Kashmir. They first d...

30 Mai 43min

The Trump-Xi Summit: What Happened in Beijing?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Wyne, Crisis Group’s Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser for U.S.-China and Senior Northeast Asia Analyst William Yang, to discuss U.S. Pr...

16 Mai 50min

A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire and An Evolving Battlefield?

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s European Security director, to discuss the latest developments in Ukraine, more than four years into full-scale war...

9 Mai 41min