Andy Reisinger & Temporary Overshoot: 1.5 is no longer a limit, it's a destination

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Andy Reisinger is a respected climate scientist who just published a new paper arguing that the gap between “staying under 1.5” and what the science says is likely means it’s time to talk seriously about managing overshoot.

He spoke to in a personal capacity - and in that same capacity he published the paper:

Temporary overshoot: Origins, prospects, and a long path ahead (1 Dec 2023)

The paper - that link above provides free open access for 50 days, cherished subscriber, so don’t say we never get you anything - seeks to start a serious discussion about Overshoot and what to do about it.

We discuss

* nature of overshoot and why now

* the role and needed scale of carbon removals (CDR) in the overshoot scenarios

* going being Net Zero - and the burden-sharing dilemmas among sectors and countries

* urgency of reducing other forcing GHGs, especially methane

It feels taboo to even discuss, and getting back below 1.5 is something that both Andy and other scientists stress is going to be extremely difficult, extremely costly, and difficult to even discuss because it will inherently involve deciding between really bad options. Who pays? How much will those responsible be willing to pay to bring the world back under 1.5?

Andy also references:

Overconfidence in Overshoot - (29 Nov 2023)

“Professor Joeri Rogelj, Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, argues that the risks of climate overshoot are dangerous and underappreciated”

Andy Reisinger:

LinkedIn

BlueSky

We also discussed Solar Radiation Management, prompted by a presentation from Thelma Krug from the IPCC:

Thanks for listening.

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