EP05: Moldova and Russia: Why should you care

Summary:

In this episode, we examine the possibility that if Russia had its way, would it move beyond Ukraine to conquer other countries, focusing on Moldova. We focus our discussion on similarities between the pre-text to the Ukraine invasions and Transnistria, a region that broke away from Moldova with Russian support, as a potential target, citing a recent appeal from pro-Russian separatists in the region for Moscow's protection. We draw parallels between this appeal and similar requests from Ukraine that preceded Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and parts of the Donbas in 2022, suggesting a potential pattern of Russian aggression. We discuss the Russian ops and tactics used against Moldova and its vulnerability to Russian information warfare and what Russia perceives as an existential threat which is Moldova moving towards European integration.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What are the key similarities and differences between Russia's actions in Transnistria and Ukraine?
2. How does Russia's information warfare tactics in Moldova influence its broader strategic goals?
3. What are the potential consequences of Russia's involvement in Moldova for the country's European integration?

Long format:

Moldova and Russia

I have long been following closely Russian actions and ops in Moldova as a way to gauge whether or not there is any validity to the thought that Russia will or will not be simply satisfied with conquering Ukraine. In other words, will they stop?

I am not a smart man, but I can use pattern recognition, right?

Transnistria was a region that broke away from Moldova around 30 years ago with Russia’s support. In February, pro-Russian separatist leaders of Transnistria issued an appeal to Moscow for protection. That echoed similar ‘appeals’ from inside Ukraine which set in motion the illegal Russian annexations of its territories: the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in 2022.

Again, pattern recognition, right?

As far as data points in trying to figure that out the whole "will they stop" issue, I offer the following articles that I liked for consideration:

https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/10/russias-information-war-in-moldova/

https://www.politico.eu/article/moldova-eu-referendum-vote-russian-interference-enlargement-accession/

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-poses-long-term-threats-moldova%E2%80%99s-european-integration-beyond-october-elections

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/moldova-new-battleground-russias-war