EP06: North Korea gets a nuclear sub? Why you should care

Summary:

In this episode we discuss North Korea's increasing nuclear capabilities, particularly the possibility of developing a nuclear-powered submarine. We provide information about North Korea's existing submarine fleet and the recent launch of the Hero Kim Kun Ok, a diesel-powered submarine equipped with missile capabilities. We focus on reports from South Korea, indicating that North Korea is constructing a new, larger submarine that may be nuclear-powered. We highlight the potential threat posed by North Korea's submarine program, as a nuclear-powered submarine would be more stealthy and could launch missiles with much shorter response times, creating a significant challenge for US defenses.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What are the implications of North Korea potentially developing a nuclear submarine for the global security landscape?
2. How does the development of a North Korean nuclear submarine impact the effectiveness of the existing US nuclear deterrence system?
3. What are the potential strategies and countermeasures that the US and its allies could employ to address the threat posed by a North Korean nuclear submarine?

Long format:

Is North Korea developing a nuclear submarine?

Per the article below, it is.

First let’s look at the current state of their fleet, quoted directly from the article below:

The fleet includes a large number of conventionally powered submarines, with estimates suggesting around 70 to 90 vessels. While many of these are older models, like the Soviet-era Romeo-class submarines, North Korea has been modifying and upgrading them for more advanced roles, including missile delivery.

A key recent development is the unveiling of the Hero Kim Kun Ok submarine, which was launched in September 2023. This vessel represents a significant modification of the Romeo class, with the addition of a missile compartment designed to carry up to 10 missiles.

Although termed a "tactical nuclear attack submarine" by North Korea, it is still diesel-powered, not nuclear-propelled. The Hero Kim Kun Ok is believed to be capable of launching both submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and potentially cruise missiles.

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A nuclear submarine has a significant advantage over a diesel-powered submarine in terms of its underwater endurance, allowing it to stay submerged for much longer periods without needing to surface for air, due to its nuclear reactor which provides virtually unlimited power compared to the limited battery capacity of a diesel submarine; this also enables greater speed and operational range at depth, making it far more stealthy and effective in combat situations. Higher speed. Prolonged loitering. Greater operational range. Stealthier. Quite a step up.

What makes NK so scary is that every other nation lets each other know pre launch where, when and for what reason a launch will happen. For example, Russia will state date, time, where from and the reason such as a new communications satellite.

NK does not let the world know when, where and for what reason it launches. Each launch detection is nailed biter.

The math for the flight of a ICBM from NK to the US is 24 minutes. And as it works the way through the detection to decision time (Single Integrated Operational Plan) is as follows:

-4/10 second after launch: SBIRS (Space-Based Infrared System) detection

-1 to 3 seconds after launch: raw data to National Reconnaissance Office at the Buckley Space Force Base in Aurora, CO (Aerospace Data Facility or Space Delta 4) and DEFSMAC in Fort Meade, MD

-6 seconds: alert to National Military Command Center in the Pentagon

-15 seconds: Space Delta 4 informs NORAD, NORTHCOM and STRATCOM to seek secondary confirmation

-20 seconds: Clear Space Force Station in Alaska use of Long Range Discrimination Radar to further analyze and confirm

-30 seconds: Cheyenne Mountain Complex Missile Warning Center

-60 seconds: US Strategic Command (STRATCOM) kicks into overdrive (STRATCOM is the most important but perhaps least publicly known aspect of the nuclear response ecosphere)

-1m 30 seconds: NORAD uses Advanced Extremely High Frequency System to start connecting to various command and control centers

-2 minutes: National Military Command Center is now fully “awake”

-2 minutes 30 seconds: STRATCOM Global Operations Center is in full swing looking to establish the red clock and blue clock, Doomsday planes all spun up

-2 minutes 45 seconds: still awaiting necessary confirmation by ground radar of an actual missile inbound.

-3 minutes: confirmation by first ground radar and the trajectory confirmed inbound to US

-3 minutes and 15 seconds: POTUS informed. POTUS has less than 6 minutes to go through use the biscuit, Permissive Action Link and nuclear football and make a choice of retaliation efforts.

-the missile is still in boost phase until 5 minutes then it turns to midcourse

-5 minutes: The US Missile Defense Agency in Fort Belvoir , MD is provided data to try to engage the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System (despite popular belief it is very very hard to shoot down ICBMs) using the SBX launching from US Army Space and Missle Defense Command in Fort Greeley, Alaska

<<<A fantastic read is Nuclear War by Anne Jacobson>>>

With SLBMs the decision to react time is significantly reduced. If for example if a North Korean sub with nuclear SLBMs were stationed 1000 km (621 miles) from our west coast, the flight time for the SLBM would be less than seven minutes to hit Washington DC. So all of the above long SIOP is totally frustrated. No decision time and no escape time.

A true bolt out of the blue attack is more devastating and effective with a nuclear submarine and nuclear SLBM.

Source:

https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2024/north-korea-begins-construction-of-large-submarine-possibly-nuclear-powered

Per the article “According to information published by Yonhap News Agency on August 8, 2024, the South Korean military has confirmed that North Korea has initiated the construction…

On October 8th, officials revealed that analysis is underway to determine whether the vessel could potentially be nuclear-powered, a significant development given North Korea's past aspirations for such technology.

According to reports, the new submarine is notably larger than the existing ones in North Korea's fleet.”

As PZ himself says he finds SK military reports to not be generally wrong or exaggerated. Recall his recent discussion about SK military reports that NK has sent troops to Ukraine.

I used a little transitive property logic there. Good for PZ is good for me.