EP11: Is China going to invade Taiwan?

Summary:

I this episode we examine clickbait legacy media drumbeat fear stroking of China invading Taiwan. In it we look at six main reasons. We discuss the logistical challenges of a large-scale land invasion, including the difficulties of transporting troops and supplies across the Taiwan Strait, the lack of deep-water ports in Taiwan, and the island's challenging terrain. Additionally, we discuss the risks posed by Taiwan's urban concentration, which would lead to difficult urban combat, and the relative transparency of the battlefield, making a large-scale invasion difficult to stage without detection. We conclude that an invasion would be a highly resource-intensive and risky undertaking, highlighting the complexities involved in such an operation.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What are the major logistical challenges that China would face if it attempted to invade Taiwan?
2. What are the key strategic weaknesses of Taiwan that could make it vulnerable to a Chinese invasion?
3. What are the potential consequences for China if it attempted to invade Taiwan, and what are the implications for regional and global stability?

Long format:

Is China going to invade Taiwan?

This is why I think the reality of China invading Taiwan now is very low for 6 major reasons. China is saber rattling.

1 Logistics of a land invasion.

The logistics of a large land invasion encompass the complex planning and execution of moving vast numbers of troops, equipment, supplies, and supporting infrastructure across a large distance, including managing transportation, fuel, food, medical care, communication systems, and securing vital supply lines, all while considering potential enemy disruptions to these critical elements; essentially, it's the "behind-the-scenes" operation that enables a military force to sustain combat operations on enemy territory. (https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/486-the-hard-part-of-fighting-a-war-contested-logistics/#:~:text=Logistics%20in and https://www.dla.mil/About-DLA/News/News-Article-View/Article/682964/history-highlight-world-war-ii-logistics-lessons/#:~:text=DLA%20accomplishes%20this%20by%20engaging,work%20effectively%20during%20the%20war ) Think Desert Shield quite the buildup.

2 Getting there en masse. The amount of troops and logistical support needed requires a lot of naval resources. It would be total commitment for China. And even then this time of year the Straight of Formosa/ Straight of Taiwan is choppy at best and treacherous at worst. That would be thousands of ships. Multiple crossings taking hours in rough to bad seas all in all taking weeks. That’s very risky just from the point of view of the physical crossing but when you add in the Taiwanese antiship and other defensive measures… Taiwan and the US and Japan will not likely grant safe passage.

3 Lack of deep-water ports. Taiwan has a few but not enough DWP with enough capacity to allow for this. And maybe Taiwan just scuttles their own ports and hunkers down. I would.

4 Topographic challenges of the island. Pull out any topographic map of the island and you will see the issue abundantly. Look at where the capital is.

5 Urban concentration. Taiwan has 23 million people mostly concentrated in urban centers. Urban centers mean urban combat. Door to door. Not pretty for the invader.

6 The relative transparency of the battlefield. True sneak attacks of invading a land mass that has 23 million inhabitants involving as some estimates say not less than 400,000 to more than two million troops takes a long time to stage and won’t go unnoticed.

I can go on. As we all know, invading a country isn’t like on a video game. It is a resource intensive risky proposition.

For a more robust treatment I offer these:

https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/24/2003205865/-1/-1/1/07-AMONSON%20%26%20EGLI_FEATURE%20IWD.PDF