EP18: Is Jordan truly a puppet state? And is Jordan going to be the new Syria?

Summary:

In this episode we explore the potential for instability in Jordan, examining the country's complex history, political landscape, and current events. The We highlight the historical tensions between Jordan and its Palestinian population, which has become increasingly sympathetic to Hamas, a group supported by Iran. The author also discusses the difficult balancing act that Jordan's King Abdullah II faces, attempting to maintain relations with both Israel and his own Palestinian population. Ultimately, we raise concerns about the possibility of civil unrest and the potential for Iranian influence to destabilize Jordan.

Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What are the historical and current factors contributing to tensions between Jordan and its Palestinian population, and how are these tensions exacerbated by Iran's influence in the region?
2. How is the relationship between Jordan and Israel influenced by Jordan's internal political dynamics and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine?
3. What are the potential consequences of Iran's growing influence in Jordan, and how might this impact the future of Jordan's stability and its relationship with the international community?

Long format:

Is Jordan truly a puppet state? And is Jordan going to be the new Syria?

Interesting article to read is:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/iran-gaining-ground-jordan-213288

Consider this part of the story:

The streets echoed with chants of “Labayk ya Nasrallah” (“We are here, oh Nasrallah”), a Shia chorus of devotion rarely heard in Jordan, which is almost entirely Sunni.

(https://x.com/jamedJeddan/status/1840487888007385457)

Also other protests such as the one depicted here:

https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-09-16/ty-article-opinion/.premium/border-crossing-shooting-shows-jordans-relations-with-israel-are-a-tough-balancing-act/00000191-f6cc-db99-adfb-f6ee758c0000 ('Carry a Quran With a Knife': How Growing Extremism Threatens Jordan – and Its Security Partnership With Israel - Opinion - Haaretz.com)

And other large groups of people talking long walks (as PZ likes to call it) is all over X with “Put the bullet in the chamber…We are your men, [Yahya] Sinwar” and “Our army is the army of the free…We are your soldiers, oh Sinwar.”

Is Iran gaining a foothold into Jordan?

Will this cause insurrection against the King and tip Jordan into a civil war?

This is most interesting given the history of Jordan, Palestinian and Iran. Here’s why…

So Jordan has a very complicated history.

Let’s stroll down the corridors of history. During World War I, the Arabs revolted against the Ottomans in 1916. The League of Nations awarded the region to the United Kingdom as a mandate for Palestine and Transjordan.

In 1921, the British established the Emirate of Transjordan, a semiautonomous region ruled by Hashemite Prince Abdullah.

In 1946, Transjordan gained independence from the British and became the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

What is a Heshimite?

With no offense intended, simplified grossly, a Hashemite is a sect of the Arab family that descends from the prophet Muhammad and has founded dynasties in the eastern Mediterranean. The Hashemites originated in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, and ruled the city from the 900s to the 1900s. The Hashemites led the Arab Revolt against the Ottoman Empire in 1916, which freed the lands of Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, and the Hijaz. But the Hashemites were in control of Mecca and parts of modern day Saudi Arabia (then called Hijaz) until defeated in battle in 1924 by King Abdulaziz bin Saud, founder of the current Saudi kingdom. Losing the holy sites was a big blow as one can imagine.

Why this becomes important will be apparent later but bookmark it for now.

Now we need to look at a specific part of the history of Palestine.

Jordan became populated with Palestinians after the 1948 Palestine War, when the country annexed parts of Palestine and granted citizenship to Palestinian refugees and indigenous West Bankers.

In 1949, Jordan signed an armistice with Israel that gave it control of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. In 1950, Jordan formally annexed this territory, which included the former Palestinian districts of Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm, Ramallah, East Jerusalem, and Hebron.

Jordan granted citizenship to Palestinian refugees and indigenous West Bankers on the same basis as existing residents. This was unlike other Arab countries that hosted Palestinian refugees.

Between 1947 and 1967, about 250,000–300,000 Palestinians fled or were expelled from Mandatory Palestine. Many of these refugees settled in Jordan.

Jordan is the only Arab country that fully integrated the Palestinian refugees of 1948. However, relations between Palestinians and Jordan have been strained at times, including in 1970 when King Hussein sent troops against Palestinian guerrilla strongholds.

They took in a very large population of Palestinians. This has led at least one prominent observer to call Jordan a puppet state of a few tribes overwhelmed by Palestinians.

The post October 7th position of the King has certainly been a very tense balancing act between acknowledging his large Palestinian population which is very sympathetic to Gaza and Israel which the King really wants to get along with and is allied with the US. An insightful article is offered here: https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/jordans-three-balancing-acts-navigating-post-october-7-middle-east

When you enter into the equation that Jordan’s unemployment rate is now 21 percent. We get a large population of disaffected people generally and a population specifically aligned more with the message of Iran to support Hamas than the Kjng himself.

It makes for odd bed fellows. You have Shia Iran that historically seen Sunni as apostates (recall apostasy is punishable by death in Iran, although the Islamic Republic has never codified the crime of apostasy) now supporting Sunni Hamas (while they of course support Shia Hezbollah).

This is not the first time this tension has come to a head. Consider https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/15/jordan-difficult-balancing-act-row-downing-iranian-drones-israel

But post October 7th and the Israeli invasion of Gaza makes this sit different.

What’s going to happen? Dunno

Can King Abdullah II continue to walk the tightrope? Dunno

But large groups of people taking long walks chanting any government things isn’t historically a good thing, right? Time will tell.

Sources:

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/royal-rifts-history-jordanian-and-saudi-monarchies