Top Traders Unplugged6 Nov 2024

GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran

05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?

10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work

15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer

17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon

21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?

24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations

27:26 - The state of the labour market

32:48 - How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?

34:21 - What is plausible range for the neutral rate?

37:07 - Is there a better way to run policy?

40:42 - The economic impact of the election outcome

45:54 - The challenges of regulatory policy

48:57 - Who will be the Treasury Secretary?

50:14 - Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?

53:49 - The outlook for fixed income

56:07 - Geopolitical concerns

57:37 - Advice for other investors

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Disclaimer

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