GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan

GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan

Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Paul on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan

06:02 - The state of the European economy

09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing

13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?

18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?

22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?

29:04 - An economic plague in the UK

34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people

38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?

44:32 - The potential for supply side economics

49:48 - Why tariffs are inflationary

52:21 - How bad can the tariffs war get?

56:18 - How tariffs could impact interest rates

59:00 - How will the rest of the decade look in terms of growth and inflation?

01:01:30 - Advice for other economists

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Episoder(924)

GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott

GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott

Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor...

25 Jun 20251h 15min

SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlo...

21 Jun 20251h 8min

GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen

GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen

Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less...

18 Jun 20251h 1min

SI352: Trend Systems Under Strain ft. Nick Baltas

SI352: Trend Systems Under Strain ft. Nick Baltas

Nick Baltas is back with Niels for a conversation that sits at the intersection of technology, uncertainty, and discipline. As AI-generated data floods the system and market reversals grow sharper, th...

14 Jun 20251h 3min

UGO03: This Isn’t 2008. That’s the Problem ft. Benn Eifert

UGO03: This Isn’t 2008. That’s the Problem ft. Benn Eifert

Back on the Cboe floor, Cem Karsan sits down with Benn Eifert to trace the fault lines shaping today’s volatility regime. They dig into why market structure, not just macro, is driving outcomes... fro...

11 Jun 202545min

SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan

SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan

As trend followers push through one of the toughest environments in years, Rich and Niels unpack what’s actually driving the pain. They draw a sharp line between two camps in the industry - those who ...

7 Jun 20251h 8min

OI16: Return Stacking: Form, Function & Friction ft. Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler

OI16: Return Stacking: Form, Function & Friction ft. Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler

Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler joins to unpack the mechanics of stacking returns inside an ETF — not as a branding exercise, but as a way to navigate the hard constraints of scale, structure, and inv...

4 Jun 20251h 6min

SI350: Why All Roads Lead to Higher Yields ft. Alan Dunne

SI350: Why All Roads Lead to Higher Yields ft. Alan Dunne

Why are markets still priced as if the old world is coming back? Alan Dunne and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine the case for structurally higher yields — not as a risk, but as the regime. Drawing from A...

31 Mai 20251h 4min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
e24-podden
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
pengepodden-2
pengesnakk
finansredaksjonen
rss-politisk-preik
utbytte
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
rss-markedspuls-2
rss-sunn-okonomi
lederpodden
rss-pa-konto
okonomiamatorene