Maritime and Trade Talk6 Feb 2024

EP25: The storm before the storm - Q1'24 trade and supply chain outlook

2023 was a year of recovery, giving the air of a return to normal. Unfortunately, normal for supply chains means guiding operations through the middle of a storm of potential disruptions. Some are already visible, including the knock-on from conflict in the Middle East and the prospect of a renewed wave of trade protectionism. Others will emerge by surprise. Our experts discuss the prospects for trade and supply chains in 2024, with topics including:

Physical operations present the biggest challenges, with conflict in the Middle East and climate change disrupting shipping networks. The prospect of accidents in the South China Sea triggering further challenges cannot be ruled out. Labor strikes may generate further friction.
Politics introduces a renewed round of uncertainty thanks to widespread elections. The rise of protectionism and retaliation which got underway in 2023 may spread in 2024 with the real impact only coming in 2025. The cost of environmental policies may widen and rise. More positively there's the prospect of new trade deals ahead.
Supply chain and trade activity will stabilize and should recover, particularly in hard-hit non-AI electronics. Decision-makers can prepare by investing in resilience and agility, but it appears investments in risk mitigation alone aren't being prioritized with the result that firms may be sleep-walking into the next round of disruptions.

Watch the on-demand here: https://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/The-Storm-Before-the-Storm-Q1-24-Trade-and-Supply-Chain-Outlook-Registration-January-2024-FS.html Speakers: Agnieszka Maciejewska Economics Manager, GTAS Forecasting, S&P Global Market Intelligence Chris Rogers Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence

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