The Big 2025 Economy Forecast: AI and Big Tech, Nuclear’s Renaissance, Trump vs. China, and What’s Eating Europe?

The Big 2025 Economy Forecast: AI and Big Tech, Nuclear’s Renaissance, Trump vs. China, and What’s Eating Europe?

Happy new year! And what better way to celebrate the freshly torn calendar page than by welcoming one of Derek's favorite writers to the show to tell us what's in store for the 2025 economy. Michael Cembalest is the chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management, and the author of the truly spectacular newsletter, 'Eye on the Market.' Today, we start with stocks and describe the truly historic—and historically unprecedented—dominance of the so-called Mag-7 tech giants. Then, we draw the connection between Big Tech’s historic run and the surge of AI spending. After a discussion on the history and future of nuclear power in America, we do a pit stop on the European economy, where we evaluate the continent’s tradeoff between safety and growth, and move on to China to disentangle that economy’s slowdown. Finally, we connect it all back to a Trump agenda that is a fascinating brew of old-fashioned Reaganite deregulation, newfangled crypto enthusiasm, mid-19th century tariff obsession, mid-20th century industrialization policy, and ... a bunch of other ingredients that I think I’ll just let Michael tell you about. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Michael Cembalest Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episoder(360)

"Yes, AI Is a Bubble. There Is No Question."

"Yes, AI Is a Bubble. There Is No Question."

The AI buildout continues to break records, as the hyperscalers pour hundreds of billions of dollars into chips and data centers, even as investors punish their stock prices. But the revenue side of t...

17 Mar 1h 9min

The Pill That Works Even When You Know It's Fake

The Pill That Works Even When You Know It's Fake

Why do placebo effects work, even when patients know that they're taking a sugar pill? How do "nocebo" effects work, and why do some people hold onto beliefs that they suspect might bring them pain an...

13 Mar 1h 11min

The Economic Crisis of the Iran War Goes Far Beyond Oil

The Economic Crisis of the Iran War Goes Far Beyond Oil

The Strait of Hormuz is the tiny bottleneck that could destabilize the global economy. As a critical passageway for crude oil, natural gas, and critical inputs for fertilizer, computer chips, and plas...

10 Mar 55min

"American Democracy as We Know It Might Not Survive This Technology"

"American Democracy as We Know It Might Not Survive This Technology"

What happens when the two biggest stories in the world—the Trump White House and the development of advanced artificial intelligence—collide? Well, nothing good, apparently. When contract negotiations...

9 Mar 1h 4min

Trump Is Doubling Down on Iran. How Should Democrats Respond?

Trump Is Doubling Down on Iran. How Should Democrats Respond?

Donald Trump’s polling has continued to edge down week after week. And yet approval of the Democratic Party is still stuck near its all-time low, according to Gallup and other surveys. One interpreta...

6 Mar 42min

The Four Ways That the Iran War Could End

The Four Ways That the Iran War Could End

Dramatic regime change. Moderate regime evolution. A calamitous regional conflict. Or … no change at all. Today we consider how the Iran conflict might evolve following the killing of Supreme Leader K...

3 Mar 55min

How Metrics Make Us Miserable

How Metrics Make Us Miserable

The modern world swims in numbers: work metrics, fitness metrics, health metrics, social media metrics. Sometimes the quantification of life can make things better. But very often, I think they force ...

27 Feb 1h 3min

The Future of GLP-1 Drugs and AI Medicine, With Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks

The Future of GLP-1 Drugs and AI Medicine, With Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks

The GLP-1 drug revolution has taken the medicine world by storm. I’ve done several episodes on the science of GLP-1s. But we’ve never done an episode like this before, where we talk to one of the most...

24 Feb 1h 7min

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