The Big 2025 Economy Forecast: AI and Big Tech, Nuclear’s Renaissance, Trump vs. China, and What’s Eating Europe?

The Big 2025 Economy Forecast: AI and Big Tech, Nuclear’s Renaissance, Trump vs. China, and What’s Eating Europe?

Happy new year! And what better way to celebrate the freshly torn calendar page than by welcoming one of Derek's favorite writers to the show to tell us what's in store for the 2025 economy. Michael Cembalest is the chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management, and the author of the truly spectacular newsletter, 'Eye on the Market.' Today, we start with stocks and describe the truly historic—and historically unprecedented—dominance of the so-called Mag-7 tech giants. Then, we draw the connection between Big Tech’s historic run and the surge of AI spending. After a discussion on the history and future of nuclear power in America, we do a pit stop on the European economy, where we evaluate the continent’s tradeoff between safety and growth, and move on to China to disentangle that economy’s slowdown. Finally, we connect it all back to a Trump agenda that is a fascinating brew of old-fashioned Reaganite deregulation, newfangled crypto enthusiasm, mid-19th century tariff obsession, mid-20th century industrialization policy, and ... a bunch of other ingredients that I think I’ll just let Michael tell you about. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Michael Cembalest Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episoder(348)

America in the Age of Diagnosis

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Trumponomics Explained, Part 2: The Enshittification of American Power

Trumponomics Explained, Part 2: The Enshittification of American Power

In the second of our two-episode series on Donald Trump, economics, and power, we talk to Henry Farrell, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins. Farrell has written extensively on how the U...

5 Sep 202552min

What Is Trumponomics? Part 1: How Donald Trump Is Breaking American Capitalism

What Is Trumponomics? Part 1: How Donald Trump Is Breaking American Capitalism

Today is the first of two interviews this week trying to answer this question: What is Trumponomics? From the 1980s to the 2010s, it was generally assumed that Republicans and Democrats had settled d...

3 Sep 202549min

The Healthiest "Super-Agers" Have One Thing in Common, According to a 25-Year Study

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Memory is the glue of life. Without it, our focus softens, our experience of the world blurs, and our identities melt away. But as people age, their memory declines. Many billions of dollars have been...

27 Aug 202541min

Plain History: How the Transcontinental Railroads Built the Modern World

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Today’s pod is about the economic story of the moment. It’s about new technology that supporters claim will transform the U.S. economy, an infrastructure build-out unlike anything in living memory tha...

20 Aug 202555min

The Modern World Is Changing America’s Personality For the Worse

The Modern World Is Changing America’s Personality For the Worse

According to analysis by Financial Times writer John Burn-Murdoch, something extraordinary has happened to Americans’ personalities in the last decade. Longitudinal tests indicate that we’ve collectiv...

13 Aug 202547min

Will AI Usher In the End of Deep Thinking?

Will AI Usher In the End of Deep Thinking?

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the latest GDP report. It contained a startling detail. Spending on artificial intelligence added more to the U.S. economy than consumer spending l...

6 Aug 202558min

The New Geography of Housing in America

The New Geography of Housing in America

Subscribe to Derek’s new Substack. In 1991, the median age of first-time homebuyers was 28. Now it’s 38, an all-time high. In 1981, the median age of all homebuyers was 36. Today, it’s 56—another all...

30 Jul 202542min

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