The Big 2025 Economy Forecast: AI and Big Tech, Nuclear’s Renaissance, Trump vs. China, and What’s Eating Europe?

The Big 2025 Economy Forecast: AI and Big Tech, Nuclear’s Renaissance, Trump vs. China, and What’s Eating Europe?

Happy new year! And what better way to celebrate the freshly torn calendar page than by welcoming one of Derek's favorite writers to the show to tell us what's in store for the 2025 economy. Michael Cembalest is the chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management, and the author of the truly spectacular newsletter, 'Eye on the Market.' Today, we start with stocks and describe the truly historic—and historically unprecedented—dominance of the so-called Mag-7 tech giants. Then, we draw the connection between Big Tech’s historic run and the surge of AI spending. After a discussion on the history and future of nuclear power in America, we do a pit stop on the European economy, where we evaluate the continent’s tradeoff between safety and growth, and move on to China to disentangle that economy’s slowdown. Finally, we connect it all back to a Trump agenda that is a fascinating brew of old-fashioned Reaganite deregulation, newfangled crypto enthusiasm, mid-19th century tariff obsession, mid-20th century industrialization policy, and ... a bunch of other ingredients that I think I’ll just let Michael tell you about. If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com. Host: Derek Thompson Guest: Michael Cembalest Producer: Devon Baroldi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episoder(348)

Why Everybody Is Wrong About a Recession and Housing’s Great Comeback

Why Everybody Is Wrong About a Recession and Housing’s Great Comeback

Last fall, three-quarters of voters told CNN that the U.S. was in a recession. A Bloomberg economic model said that the odds of a recession by the fall of 2023 were 100 percent. But we’re not in a rec...

14 Feb 202334min

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of Fake Meat in America

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of Fake Meat in America

For the past 50 years, Americans have basically responded to the case against eating animals by eating more animals. The share of Americans who call themselves vegan or vegetarian hasn’t increased in ...

10 Feb 202338min

China’s Spy Balloon Is Down. Cold War 2.0 Risks Are Rising.

China’s Spy Balloon Is Down. Cold War 2.0 Risks Are Rising.

If we’re being honest, the whole thing is kind of funny. A Chinese spy balloon floated across the U.S. Nobody died, unless we count the balloon itself. In a saner age, this story would be over. But ba...

7 Feb 202343min

Econ Megapod: The Debt Ceiling Is Dumb, and the Inflation “Crisis” Might Be Over

Econ Megapod: The Debt Ceiling Is Dumb, and the Inflation “Crisis” Might Be Over

We’ve got a double-barrelled podcast for you. Jeanna Smialek, economics reporter for the ‘New York Times,’ joins us to break down the debt-ceiling showdown that’s enveloping Washington. Plus, economis...

3 Feb 202357min

The Dark Side of Being Obsessed With Productivity

The Dark Side of Being Obsessed With Productivity

"Productivity is a trap. Nobody in the history of humanity has ever achieved work-life balance. The real problem isn’t our limited time. The real problem—or so I hope to convince you—is that we’ve unw...

31 Jan 202348min

How AI Could Change Apple and Google, Writing and Music, and Everything Else

How AI Could Change Apple and Google, Writing and Music, and Everything Else

“The story of 2022 was the emergence of AI," wrote Ben Thompson, the author of the Stratechery newsletter and podcast. "It seems clear to me that this is a new epoch in technology.” Ben and Derek talk...

27 Jan 20231h 1min

Why Big Tech's Jobs Bubble Burst. Plus, SBF's Scandal Deepens.

Why Big Tech's Jobs Bubble Burst. Plus, SBF's Scandal Deepens.

Derek breaks down the biggest economic mystery of the moment: Why are the most successful tech companies collectively laying off more than 130,000 people if the overall unemployment rate is still hist...

24 Jan 202347min

America Isn’t Ready for the Weight-Loss-Drug Revolution That’s Coming

America Isn’t Ready for the Weight-Loss-Drug Revolution That’s Coming

We have historically thought about weight as the mere outcome of our deliberate choices about diet and exercise. We have not typically thought about weight like a disease. But in the past 18 months, t...

20 Jan 202353min

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