Handelskrig

Välfyllda butikshyllor, ekonomiskt välstånd och låg arbetslöshet riskerar att bli ett minne blott ifall hotet om handelskrig blir verklighet.

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”Handelskrig är bra och enkla att vinna”, skrev USA:s president Donald Trump när han införde importtullar i mars 2018. Sju år senare är Trump långt ifrån den enda ledaren i världen som tagit till tullar och andra handelshinder för att skydda inhemsk industri. Och kanske står vi inför en världsomfattande handelskonflikt.

Men varför ökar protektionismen på olika håll i världen? Vad innebär ett handelskrig egentligen, och hur kan handelskonflikter öka risken för militära krig?


Producent och programledare: Anna Lillkung och Wendela Antepohl

Medverkande

Johan Norberg – Författare, föreläsare och senior fellow vid Cato Institute

Bill Reinsch – Senior rådgivare, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

Ingrid Serup – Expert inom handelspolitik, Svenskt Näringsliv

Fredrik Sjöholm – Professor i nationalekonomi och vd på Institutet för Näringslivsforskning

Artiklar och källor i urval

• Growing Threats to Global Trade. Pinelopi K. Goldberg and Tristan Reed,
  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA), 2023

• Re-examining the connection between peace, conflict and trade. (White Paper). Patrick Hiller. War Prevention Initiative, 2015.

• ”We need them” - Trump vows to take control of Greenland and Panama Canal - The Guardian, 2025.

• When Trade Leads to War. Dale C. Copeland. Foreign Affairs, 2022.

• The Loss of Indispensable Consolations: The Rise of Protectionism and Its Role in Global Conflicts. Rocio Gatdula. Georgetown Security Studies Review, 2024.

• From Smoot-Hawley to ‘America first’ and ‘strategic sovereignty’. Fredrik Erixon, Joseph Francois, and Koen Berden. The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), 2020.

• Economic Interdependence and War. Dale C. Copeland. International Security, 1996.

• U.S.-China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence. Carnegie Endowment for Peace, 2024.

• Perils of Globalization When Factories Close and Towns Struggle. The New York Times. 2015.

• Europe, And the World, Should Use Green Subsidies Cooperatively. International Monetary Fund. 2023.

• Global GDP over the long run. Our World in Data. Data hämtad i januari 2025.

• Trump is proposing a 10 % tariff. Economists say that amounts to a $1700 tax on Americans. CBS News. 2024.

• Economic Backfire: The Costly Impact of Trump's proposed Tariffs.
  Lovi Nordgren, Nils Norell, Petter Stålenheim. Kommerskollegium. 2024.

• Vilka länder är Sveriges viktigaste handelspartners? Kommerskollegium. 2024.

• Making Tariffs Great Again: Does President Trump Have Legal Authority to Implement New Tariffs on U.S. Trading Partners and China? William Reinsch. CSIS. 2024.

• The effects of tariff hikes in a world of global value chains. European Central Bank. 2019.

• The effects of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on EU competitiveness. Svenskt Näringsliv. 2023.

• China Dominates Global Manufacturing. CSIS. 2025.

• Who Benefits from Trade Wars? Wolfgang Lechthaler, Mariya Mileva. Trade Policy. 2018.

• Fragile international relations, trade, and policy. Anna Karhu. Baltic Rim Economies. 2022.

• Riskgäldsdirektören: ”Risk för ett närliggande handelskrig”. Klara Matsdotter. Placera. 2024.

• Ekonomiska konsekvenser av ökad protektionism. Riksbanken. 2017.

• Sverige kan straffas av jättarnas handelskrig. SVT. 2023.

• Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States. NBER Working Paper Series. 2024.

• Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars. The Economic Journal. 2021.

• How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market. Carnegie Endowment for Peace. 2021.

• Tariffs are a misunderstood tool. Michael Pettis. The Financial Times.

• China’s problem is excess savings, not too much capacity. Michael Pettis. Financial Times. 2024.

• Fighting Global Protection: Why the Economist is Mistaken. Carnegie Endowment for Peace. 2023.

• A Trump trade war 2.0 will be worse than the first for Europe. Politico. 2024.

• The world faces its worst trade wars since the 1930s. The Economist. 2024.

• Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries. J Policy Model. 2020.

• The EU Response to US Trade Tariffs. Intereconomics - Review of European Economic Policy. 2018.

• Full-blown trade wars weaken EU GDP by 2.5 percent. Dansk Industri. 2024.

• Brexit deal impact in UK is worsening, warn economists. BBC News. 2024.

• New report reveals UK economy is almost £140billion smaller because of Brexit. Cambridge Econometrics (Commissioned by City Hall). 2024.

• The economic implications of rising protectionism: a euro area and global perspective. European Central Bank. 2019

• Imports, Exports, and Earnings Inequality: Measures of Exposure and Estimates of Incidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2022.

• Changing views on trade’s impact on inequality in wealthy countries. Peter Levell, David Dorn. Center for Economic Policy Research. 2022.

• A primer on trade and inequality. Dani Rodrik. The IFS Deaton Review. 2021.

• International Trade and Inequality. Asian Development Bank Institute. 2017.

• The economic impacts of Trump’s tariff proposals on Europe. Aurélien Saussay. Policy Insight. 2024.

• The Trump trade wars are coming back. Here’s what to expect this time. Josh Lipsky. Atlantic Council. 2024.

• In the US-China trade war, how did some “bystander” countries come out ahead? Yale EGC Website. 2024.

• Ekonomipristagaren Simon Johnson om Trumps utlovade tullar: ”I värsta fall får vi ett handelskrig”. SVT. 2024.

• Så räddade frihandeln världen – två gånger. Tidningen Näringslivet. 2022.

• Would Donald Trump's tariffs hurt US customers? BBC. 2024.

• Commentary: Did Trump’s tariffs benefit American workers and national security? Geoffrey Gertz. The Brookings Institution. 2020.

• The Risk of Protectionism: What can be lost? Marek Dabrowski. J Risk Financial Manag. 2004.

• The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2019.

• 2024 Post-Election Analysis: Trade and Tariffs. Mintz. 2024.

• Why Europe is Losing the Tech Race. Foreign Policy. 2024.

• The Draghi Report: A Strategy to Reform the European Economic Model. Federico Steinberg, Max Bergmann. CSIS.org. 2024.

• China’s Trade Surplus – Implications for the World and for Europe. Jurgen Matthes. Intereconomics - Review of European Economic Policy. 2024.

• Trade wars and real wars. Jonathan Hillman. CSIS.org. 2018.

• From “Made in China” to “Created in China”: Intellectual Property Rights in the People’s Republic of China. Gerald J. Krieger. National Defense University Press. 2024.

• From solar to EVs: How China is overproducing green tech. Nik Martin. Deutsche Welle. 2024.

• The EU’s comparative advantage in the “clean-energy arms race”. The Annals of Regional Science. 2025.

• Trading Away from Conflict: Using Trade to Increase Resilience in Fragile States. World Bank Group.

• Trade, War and Reconstruction. CEPR. 2023.

• Trade and peace: The WTO case. China Economic Review. 2024.

• Does Trade Contribute to Peace? Jong-Wha Lee and Ju Hyun Pyun. Cato Institute. 2020.

• Protectionism Started the Geopolitical Fire. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg. Project Syndicate. 2023.

• A less global village? World trade in the age of geopolitical fragmentation. Coface for Trade. Eva Barre, Marcos Carias. 2024.

• How Bad Are Trade Wars? Evidence from Tariffs. Czech National Bank. 2021.

• The Economic Consequences of Globalisation in the United States. Peter A. Petri, Meenal Banka. ERIA Discussion Paper Series. 2020.

• Det kapitalistiska manifestet. Johan Norberg. 2021.

• The Role of Trade in ending Poverty. WTO. 2015.

• Handelns betydelse för vårt välstånd. Svenskt Näringsliv.

• Botched policy responses to globalization have decimated manufacturing employment with often overlooked costs for Black, Brown, and other workers of color. Economic Policy Institute. 2022.

• The Globalization And Offshoring Of U.S. Jobs Have Hit Americans Hard. Jack Kelly. Forbes. 2024.

• Freyr Battery Receives Shareholder Approval For Redomicile to USA. High North News. 2023.

• Vår relativa fattigdom är alltmer uppenbar. Katrine Kielos. Svenska Dagbladet. 2024.

• Global growth forecast to flatline as tariffs add to strains. Jonathan Josephs. BBC. 2025.

• How a trade war would impact global growth. World Economic Forum. 2019.

• Quantifying the losses from a global trade war. Banque de France. 2018.

• Costly Conflict: Here’s How China’s Military Options for Taiwan Backfire. United States Institute for Peace. 2024.

• Majority of Americans take a dim view of increased trade with other countries. Pew Research Center. 2024.

Ljudklipp

• EFN Ekonomikanalen (Youtube): ”Signal mot att man vill ha ett handelskrig med Kina”

• Konflikt i P1: Så rustar Europa för ett nytt handelskrig mot Trump

• HBO: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant

Andra ljudklipp som hörs i avsnittet kommer från The Washington Post, Euronews, ABC News, The National Archives Southeast Region, NPR.com, Youtube-kontot KGW News.

Musik

Jon Brion - You Learn

Ochre - A Midsummer Nice Dream

Cristobal Tapia De Veer - Pain Speedball

Kid Loco - Theme From The Graffiti Artist

Vince Clarke - Scarper

Armando Trovajoli - Tema Della Goccia

Cliff Martinez - Placental Repair

Blue Dot Sessions - Lobo Lobo

Martin D Fowler - 1Ships III

Alberto Iglesias - Treasure

Vince Pope - Dream Reality

Max De Wardener - Snowflakes

David Celeste - Cloudbursts

Marcus Bagalà - Frets: Too Too

KT - Bexar Bexar

Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross - Empty Places

Kyle Dixon & Michael Stein - Eleven

Marcus Bagalà - Wires: Windchimes

Martin D Fowler - 1 Ships XII

Cristobal Tapia De Veer - The Public

Cliff Martinez - Speight Lived Here

Ben Prunty - Mantis (Explore)

Paul Leonard-Morgan - Anderson’s Theme

Jon Brion - Cubes

Podington Bear - Vibe Drive

Michael Andrews - Peter and Sylvie

Cliff Martinez - The Birds Are Doing That

Marcus Bagalà – Duvo in Mara’s Room

Vince Pope - Who Are You

Helios - Even Today

Trentemøller - Miss You

Ochre - A Midsummer Nice Dream

Cliff Martinez - Wrong Floor

Bruce Springsteen - Factory