Developer Tea8 Feb 2025

How Can You Prepare for High-Impact Unknown Events?

This episode includes practical techniques to prepare for the unexpected by identifying vulnerabilities and building resilience, using the "curse question" and the "assumption audit" to help you turn potential problems into strategic advantages.

• Uncover how to use a "curse question" to expose vulnerabilities you didn't know you had, by imagining realistic negative scenarios and what could go wrong.
• Learn how to move beyond resilience to antifragility, turning unexpected events into opportunities for growth and strategic advantage, by making them benefitial rather than harmful.
• Discover why your medium-confidence assumptions might be the most dangerous and how an "assumption audit" can help you rate them and their potential impact if they are wrong, to help you better understand your weaknesses.
• Explore why preparing for a range of possibilities, including black swan events, is more effective than trying to predict specific outcomes, and how to spot opportunities in the unexpected.
• Learn why focusing on areas of fragility and identifying risks can be more useful than focusing on trying to avoid negative events altogether.
• Understand that counterfactuals can help you challenge your assumptions and create more robust plans.

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