European Stocks Rally, U.S. Tax Cuts & Germany’s Confidence Drop: PALvatar Market Recap - February 26, 2025

U.S. stocks are down after new employment and jobless claims data released this morning indicated a still-resilient labor market. Private-sector employment rose by 235,000 in December, according to the latest ADP employment report, well above expectations. Annual pay for “job-stayers” rose 7.3%. Meanwhile, new jobless claims came in below estimates. On today’s show, Michael Gayed, the portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and editor of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what signals caused him to switch from calling for a “melt-up” to an “imminent crash” at the end of 2022, and where he believes market conditions are pointing next. Plus, we hear from David Higgins about the possibility of a 2023 recession and why it might last longer than many expect. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Jan 202337min

Federal Reserve officials believe that “substantially more evidence” of slowing inflation is necessary before the central bank cuts interest rates this year, according to the December FOMC minutes which were released Wednesday afternoon. Fed officials cited concern that inflation could prove “modestly persistent,” and said that higher rates for longer will be necessary to fight inflation. Officials agreed that rate cuts shouldn’t happen in 2023. On today’s Daily Briefing, Darius Dale, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the market’s response to this news, his view of inflation, and what it all means for global assets as we navigate the year ahead. Plus, we hear from Mish Schnieder of MarketGauge.com who gives us her opinion of where inflation will head in 2023. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Jan 202336min

The first trading day of 2023 is in the books and boy was it eventful. As warmer-than-average temperatures hold up across the globe, natural gas prices are falling off a cliff. At the time of this writing, natural gas futures are down 11.8%. Oil is down meaningfully as well. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks gave up early morning gains, with Apple and Tesla leading to the downside. On today’s show, Tony and Andreas will discuss the macro dynamics that are driving this sell-off in energy and share how they’re playing the sector in the new year. Plus, they’ll discuss why Elon Musk has become a problem for the typical Tesla investor and take a look at what else you should keep an eye on in the months ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Jan 202334min

There’s no going back to 2019, according to Jim Bianco, and the sooner we accept reality the better we’ll be able to see new opportunities. The post-pandemic global economy is fundamentally different, and the “easy money” era is over. In the final episode of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Raoul Pal welcomes the founder of Bianco Research for a talk about inflation and the longer-term implications of soaring consumer prices. Raoul and Jim agree on many issues – that the U.S. is already in recession, for one. But they also disagree on other big points, such as inflation. As Jim sees it, the Federal Reserve is going to crush inflation, but consumer prices are still going to settle at a higher level. This is a can’t-miss conversation between two great macro minds on a critical “Make or Break” issue. Recorded on Wednesday September 21, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

30 Des 20221h 16min

Dario’s views of the global economy’s structure and how the next decade plays out are very different from those of most observers. He thinks the 1970s analogue is the wrong one to look at and that the postwar decades, the 1940s and the 1950s, provide a better framework. At the same time, he foresees a move toward a "tangible economy" and away from the "intangible economy" of the 2010s. In the fourth installment of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Dario and Raoul talk about ramifications of this transition for inflation, growth, and interest rates. Recorded on May 12th, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

29 Des 202248min

“Regionalization” is the transition from a world of stable prices and consistent growth to one of rising costs of living where the threat of global famine is real. The breakdown of an economic order framed by just-in-time supply chains requires a rethink of trade networks and relationships. Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan addresses these issues and more in his new book “The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.” In the third episode of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Zeihan joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about implications of this transition, including the end of China’s time as a great power but the perpetuation of the U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. Recorded on May 31, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

28 Des 20221h 10min

The transition to clean energy is an extremely important and noble cause but achieving future net-zero targets “will be very, very difficult.” That’s the message from Wil VanLoh, the Founder and CEO of Quantum Energy Partners, a private equity firm that’s been building energy companies for nearly a quarter century. Wil also happens to be a long-time friend of Kyle’s, and in the second installment of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, the pair discuss the urgency needed to address major problems in the global energy market and the necessity of the clean energy transition. As Wil puts it, “This is an issue of humanity, and if we don’t get it right, the consequences are dire.” Recorded on May 30, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

27 Des 20221h 20min

Emad Mostaque is democratizing artificial intelligence. The hedge fund manager turned entrepreneur is the founder of Stability AI, the company behind Stable Diffusion, an image-generating algorithm that creates new, never-before-seen pictures. It’s the most advanced technology in AI, and Emad is bringing it to the masses. In the first episode of our ‘Best of 2022’ series, Emad shows Raoul how quickly AI is progressing, what that progress means for our future, and why he chose to make Stable Diffusion open source. This type of technology should be available to everyone in the world, Emad believes, not just corporate tech giants. His vision is AI of, by, and for the people – and with that comes great opportunity. Recorded on Wednesday October 12, 2022. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

26 Des 20221h 4min