The Fed Feels It's Doing What's Required
The S&P 500 was on its way to a fifth consecutive “decision day” gain this afternoon – until a unanimous Federal Open Market Committee confirmed the market’s 100%-priced-in expectation of a 75-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate target range but firmly underscored its hawkish tone. Stocks turned red and yields surged at 2:00 p.m. ET, as the FOMC’s “dot plot” suggested another 125 basis points of rate hikes over its last two meetings in 2022 and further tightening well into 2023. Reiterating that it’s “highly attentive to inflation risks” and that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the Fed also lowered its growth forecast for the year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about Fed policy – looking back and going forward – and what it means for risk assets. We also hear from Thomas Hoenig, who led the Kansas City Fed for 20 years, about the risks “quantitative tightening” presents to the global financial system. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://f.io/fd0SmXxX. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
22 Sep 202237min
It's a Busy Week for Central Bankers
The Federal Reserve is just one of 16 central banks making interest-rate decisions this week, but it is the most widely watched monetary policy body in the world. And its current path – errant though it may be – is having a profound effect on the global economy by pushing up the U.S. dollar. The most recent data on the U.S. housing market surprised to the upside, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. “I like that we got wildly positive homebuilder data,” tweeted Tony Greer today, “but the sector is still trading like it’s petrified of higher yields.” Tony, the founder and CEO of TG Macro, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action in key corners of the market, notably energy, as well as what he expects from the Federal Reserve tomorrow. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about what this week’s abundance of central bank activity means for financial markets and economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Weston Nakamura here: https://rvtv.io/3SmmDNU. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
21 Sep 202235min
Can the Fed Stick To Its Guns?
All three major U.S. equity indexes were essentially flat at the halfway point of Monday’s trading session, with attention squarely focused on the outcome of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As a 75-basis-point rate hike is a foregone conclusion, the main event will be Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Incoming data continue to suggest the economy is slowing, highlighted by a rapidly cooling housing market. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to preview this week’s central bank action. We also hear from Thomas Hoening, the longest-serving Fed president in U.S. history, about how risks posed by monetary tightening – i.e., rising unemployment – will test Powell’s resolve. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://rvtv.io/3qPyEQ3. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
20 Sep 202239min
The Next Big Trade - Warren Pies on Why It's Good To Be Long Energy
Warren Pies is overweight energy for multiple reasons. The founder of 3Fourteen Research joins Harry Melandri to make the bullish case for everything related to hydrocarbon extraction, production, and delivery to market, citing years of poor management and negative cash flow as the primary reasons the sector was discounted. Warren explains why high-quality energy stocks should have a place in any long-term portfolio – and he notes that some housing exposure might be a good idea right now too. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
18 Sep 20221h 2min
My Life in 4 Trades - How To Recover From a Huge Loss
Andrew Rosener has always had an entrepreneurial spirit. As the founder and CEO of Media Options – the No. 1 media domain brokerage in the world – he’s responsible for some of the largest domain sales in history. In a captivating conversation, Andrew talks to Maggie Lake about how he’s remained at the tip of the spear in the digital asset realm. He also shares his worst trade and how he’s come to terms with a $1.9 billion loss. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
17 Sep 202249min
What Else Can Be Priced In?
FedEx withdrew forward earnings guidance and CEO Raj Subramaniam warned of a “worldwide recession” on Friday, sounding another “risk off” signal and sending all three major U.S. indexes to declines of at least 1% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how a “worldwide recession” would impact particular asset classes, with an emphasis on energy. Warren explains the structural factors that make high-quality names related to crude oil and natural gas potential outperformers – even in an environment of “dramatic disinflation.” We also have a preview of an upcoming My Life in 4 Trades podcast featuring Bill Browder, who talks about Vladimir Putin, what comes next in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and why it’s going to go on for some time longer. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
16 Sep 202236min
"Our Conviction Is Very High"
U.S. equity indexes traded mixed Thursday, as investors priced in murky economic data and the reality that Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve shall not pivot from its inflation-fighting stance. “We think the CPI report was very important for the market,” said Eric Johnston, the Senior Managing Director and Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset at Cantor Fitzgerald. “It showed that inflation does not magically come down and you can’t get it under control with a soft landing, an unemployment rate below 4%, and the S&P 500 at 4,000.” Eric joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why equities are holding up so well with global growth increasingly impaired and financial conditions more and more restrictive. Eric and Andreas also discuss key levels for major asset classes and positioning dynamics amid the many prevailing global geopolitical-macroeconomic crosscurrents. We also hear from Jason Trennert about the structural factors that will keep inflation higher for longer. Watch the full conversation featuring Jason Trennert and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3dfUHvY. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
16 Sep 202236min
What To Do at the Acceptance Stage of the Tightening Cycle
Markets achieved a relative calm today following yesterday’s steep sell-off, as investors continued to process hotter-than-expected August Consumer Price Index data and priced in expectations-meeting Producer Price Index data. What we have now, as Darius Dale sees it, is the transition from the Federal Reserve pushing back on “pivot” expectations to market participants accepting the implications of a single-mandate central bank: a downturn in the global liquidity cycle. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what that means for prices of risk assets, including equities, crude oil, and Bitcoin. The key question, of course, is this: Where can we hide from what appears to be an imminent bear-market rout? We also hear from Peter Boockvar about what a strong U.S. dollar means to various market constituents. Watch the complete conversation between Peter Boockvar and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
15 Sep 202239min
