European Stocks Rally, U.S. Tax Cuts & Germany’s Confidence Drop: PALvatar Market Recap - February 26, 2025

Federal Reserve officials acknowledged an “uncertain” economic environment but forecast “solid” growth and continuing strength in the labor market, as minutes to the May FOMC meeting revealed a general consensus behind at least a couple more 50-basis-point rate hikes. The Fed also noted that “restrictive policy may become appropriate.” Stocks struggled for footing in the immediate aftermath of the minutes’ release. George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the May FOMC minutes and the impact of tightening real financial conditions on markets and the economy. We also hear from Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco about the repercussions of a widespread loss of faith in the Fed. And we get a look at today’s episode of the new Real Vision series Crypto Unwrapped. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38IF1iQ. Watch the full conversation between Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco here: https://rvtv.io/3MmeBlg. Watch the Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Leslie Lamb, Ash Bennington, and Paul Guerra here: https://rvtv.io/38iDcZF. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

26 Mai 202235min

Stocks sagged early, with social media stocks dragging the Nasdaq down more than 3% on bearish earnings guidance from Snap Inc., but rallied off the lows in a move presaged by Thomas Thornton right before noon ET. “Seeing most ETFs down on the day but lifting over today's volume-weighted average prices, which, if those levels can hold, is a positive,” tweeted Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry. Thornton joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about today’s price action in the broader (bullish or bearish?) context. And we hear from Dario Perkins, managing director at Global Macro, about the bursting of the “everything bubble” and the impact of rising interest rates on equity valuations. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lEctcV. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3sU59hz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

25 Mai 202236min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has logged eight consecutive losing weeks, but it’s leading the U.S. equity indexes to the upside today with a gain of more than 2%. Perhaps investors are looking at stocks with Jared Dillian’s style of optimism. “If we get a recession, and it looks like we will,” notes Dillian, “it will be a much easier trading environment than what we’ve been dealing with. Fed easing policy is always easier than Fed tightening policy.” Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to make his case for a developing risk-on environment. We also hear from Francis “The Market Sniper” Hunt about Bitcoin and its correlation to old-school financial asset prices. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38DtmSo. Watch the full conversation between Francis Hunt and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3LG8cAq. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

24 Mai 202233min

Here's a special bonus trade from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Handling stress is one of the most difficult things investors are faced with daily. Howard Lindzon shares his insights on how to manage stress and why finding a good mentor can be a game changer in life and work. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

22 Mai 20227min

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. One of the biggest names in global macro, David Rosenberg, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the possible return of deflation, global supply chain issues, and what the next 12 months could look like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

22 Mai 202253min

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Howard Lindzon joins Maggie Lake to discuss how a lifelong passion for comedy led to his success in the early days of the internet. He also touches on de-globalization and why finding a unicorn isn’t as important as it may seem. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

21 Mai 202248min

A surprise rate cut by the People’s Bank of China boosted equity futures early Friday, and stocks did open higher. But any optimism the Federal Reserve would follow the PBoC’s dovish example and not “hike until it hurts” faded before noon. "They are going to break inflation,” says Jim Bianco, “and if they break you along the way, so be it." The S&P 500 slipped into official “bear market” territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track for its eighth consecutive down week, the longest such streak since 1923. Bianco, President of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about the implications of a hawkish Fed and the possibility of a global recession. And we hear from Dario Perkins about the “tangible” opportunity that may follow this period of slowing growth. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wvTE24. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3wyGYYf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

21 Mai 202239min

Do U.S. investors pay enough attention to what’s happening in overseas markets? Real Vision’s expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, shares some data at the top of today’s Daily Briefing that may open your eyes to underlying systemic cracks growing in China and Japan. Then, Maggie Lake is joined by Peter Boockvar, who’s concerned about how a slowing world economy will impact companies. “I think the main story now is margin contraction and the direction of earnings,” says the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group. “We now have P/E multiples compressing, profit margins rolling over, and the growing prospect that sales will slow in response to both supply issues and the growing prospect of an economic slowdown. It’s a perfect storm.” Is there more pain to come? Peter thinks so. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wvTE24. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

20 Mai 202241min