Is It Time to Talk About Hyperinflation?
The average 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. surged past 5% for the first time since 2011 this week, up from 4.72% last week, as the market continues to price in an aggressive monetary tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve. Inflation remains the dominant factor for policy makers, investors, and consumers. In fact, as Jared Dillian notes, it’s time to think about the unthinkable: hyperinflation. Policy choices have fed into structural factors to create an upward producer and consumer price spiral that the Fed and other central banks will be hard-pressed to control. Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the macro picture, gold, and why Elon Musk would be good for Twitter. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/37P5H0u Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
15 Apr 202236min
Is Inflation the Only Thing That Matters Right Now?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report on the producer price index for March showed the biggest month-over-month and year-over-year gains on record, 1.4% and 11.2%, respectively, as inflation continues to dominate the discourse. The PPI data follow the hottest consumer price index reading in 40 years, 8.5%. As the Federal Reserve continues to try to convince markets and consumers it’s serious about tightening monetary conditions and reining in spiraling prices, policymakers in China and Japan press on with accommodation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to talk about the Japanese yen’s role in the global financial system and the worrying signals he’s seeing in forex markets. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Fed, markets, and inflation as we head into a critical earnings-reporting season. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3EeUTF4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
13 Apr 202237min
When Will Inflation Abate, and What Will Make That Happen?
The Consumer Price Index increased 8.5% in March compared to a year earlier, another new 40-year-high following a 7.9% annual gain in February. Energy and agriculture markets remain the critical areas of focus, each of them adversely impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. U.S. equity indexes surged on a slower-than-expected 0.3% month-over-month CPI increase, and many economists see this as a potential peak in this inflationary period. The Federal Reserve has left the door open for a 50 basis point increase to its federal funds rate target, and “quantitative tightening” is set to commence in May. But there’s little to suggest inflation will recede toward the central bank’s 2% target anytime soon. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing to discuss commodities, inflation, central bank policy, and financial markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JtPfzO Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
13 Apr 202235min
Where We Are in the Market Cycle
The Consumer Price Index for March is going to generate a lot of headlines when it’s released on Tuesday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. That’s still the No. 1 issue confronting policymakers and investors, and, given the constraints on energy and agricultural commodities exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that’s likely to be the case for some time. Will the Federal Reserve tighten policy to the point of economic recession? Matt Peron, Director of Research at Janus Henderson Investors, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about where we are in the market cycle, inflation, and the merits of dividends. At the top of the show, Ash Bennington shares an update on cryptocurrency markets in the aftermath of the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3rejLHK Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
12 Apr 202237min
A Special Bonus Trade From Rick Rule
What did Rick Rule learn from renowned investor, Warren Buffett? He shares that with Maggie on a bonus edition of My Life in 4 Trades Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
10 Apr 20227min
Rick Rule & The Art of Trading Natural Resources
Legendary trader, Rick Rule, joins Maggie Lake on the debut episode of My Life in 4 Trades to discuss his journey investing in natural resource securities, the companies he has financed across the globe, and the most important lessons he’s learned along the way. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
9 Apr 202243min
The U.S. Dollar Continues To Show Its Strength
The U.S. dollar index hit 100 for the first time in two years on Friday, surging on the prospect of a more aggressive monetary tightening cycle on top of an increasingly fraught geopolitical landscape. Signs of inflation abound, even as the Federal Reserve asserts its hawkishness at every opportunity. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index jumped nearly 13% in March to a new record high, with disruptions to global trade flows, specifically passage through the crucial Black Sea, fueling fears of food shortages. And prices for agricultural commodities continue to rise. U.S. equity indexes were mixed two hours before Friday’s close of regular trading, with tech stocks giving back much of what was gained on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched a new three-year high. Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree Asset Management, joins Warren Pies on today’s Daily Briefing to discuss the U.S. dollar, supply chain disruptions, and inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xenRmT Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
9 Apr 202241min
Markets React to Crude Chess Games
WTI gave back early gains today, as member-states of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil from storage in a follow-up move to President Joe Biden’s plan to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for 180 million barrels. There are also questions about whether eurozone authorities will be able to keep Russian oil off the market. Chinese officials provided more rhetorical support for stepping up monetary stimulus for the economy to boost consumption at an “appropriate time,” acknowledging that domestic and global risks are now more significant than previously forecast. Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show the U.S. central bank plans to begin to run off its $9 trillion balance sheet at a $1 trillion per year annualized pace beginning in May. And St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said today he’d like to see a 3.5% fed funds rate by the second half of 2022 and favors a 50-basis-point hike at the FOMC’s meeting next month. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to discuss crude oil prices, Chinese monetary policy, and the Fed’s new hawkishness. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JkKDM6 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
8 Apr 202231min
