The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope
Odd Lots14 Mar 2025

The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope

Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the No Dumb Ideas substack.

Read More: A Live Experiment in Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now

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Episoder(1182)

Greg Brew on Surging Energy and the 'Strategic Trap' of the War in Iran

Greg Brew on Surging Energy and the 'Strategic Trap' of the War in Iran

The war in Iran has already lasted longer than many people might have expected. There was an initial assumption, after oil prices started surging, that President Trump could just declare victory at an...

20 Mar 53min

How War in Iran Will Squeeze America's Farmers Even Further

How War in Iran Will Squeeze America's Farmers Even Further

America’s farmers can’t seem to catch a break. Years of thin margins and rising costs have already stretched them to the limit. And now, war with Iran is making things even harder. The conflict is dri...

19 Mar 47min

War in Iran Is Redrawing the Map for Natural Gas

War in Iran Is Redrawing the Map for Natural Gas

Mostly, the world has been watching the price of oil skyrocket amid the war in Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But there's more than just oil that comes out of the region. Qatar...

18 Mar 44min

War in Iran is Chewing Through American Missile Stockpiles

War in Iran is Chewing Through American Missile Stockpiles

The war in Iran has been fought almost entirely in the skies, with both offensive missiles, as well as anti-missile defense systems. But the math is brutal. The war in Ukraine has already put a dent i...

16 Mar 44min

What War in Iran Means for China's Teapot Oil Refineries

What War in Iran Means for China's Teapot Oil Refineries

In the wake of the war in Iran, oil prices have shot up for everyone. But not all oil is exactly equal. And, obviously, a lot of Iranian oil goes to China specifically. Furthermore, because Iran’s oil...

13 Mar 43min

Legendary Hacker Matt Suiche on Cyberwar in the Age of AI

Legendary Hacker Matt Suiche on Cyberwar in the Age of AI

We tend to think of warfare in two distinct arenas: the physical and the digital. Increasingly, however, those lines are blurring. Last week, Iran launched drone strikes on data centers in the UAE and...

12 Mar 49min

War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before

War in Iran Is Creating a Fertilizer Crisis Like Never Before

We all know that the war with Iran has sent oil prices spiking. But it’s also pushing up the cost of all sorts of chemicals, including fertilizers like urea, ammonia and other nitrogen products that a...

11 Mar 30min

Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel

Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel

Oil has obviously spiked massively since the start of the war with Iran. And if you look at various end products, such as jet fuel, the surge is even more extreme. And if the war is prolonged, or if t...

10 Mar 36min

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