When There’s No One Left To Sell
Within three hours today, S&P 500 futures swung from a 3.9% decline to a 3.9% rally. “It's pretty incredible,” tweeted Jared Dillian shortly after noon, “to watch people get fooled by the market over and over again. It's not hard – when there's no one left to sell, they cover.” Weston Nakamura has a more global perspective on the reversal, noting that the U.K. and the pound as well as Japan and the yen still linger as potential crisis points. Jared raised an interesting point in today’s edition of The Daily Dirtnap: that we’re in “a bubble of bearish sentiment.” Weston and Jared join Maggie Lake to talk about the significance of today’s price action. The violent reversal was surely concerning, hardly the sign of a healthy market. Jared, Weston, and Maggie unpack the reaction to the most recent U.S. inflation data and what it means for central bankers and global financial markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
13 Okt 202237min
The Fed Will Stick To Its Waste-Laying
The Producer Price Index for September came in hotter than expected, as investors brace for the Thursday morning release of Consumer Price Index data. Minutes to the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee reveal a central bank as determined as ever to “stay the course” toward “restrictive rates in the near term.” With cracks in the global financial system getting bigger by the day, Maggie Lake welcomes Cem Karsan, the founder of Aegea Capital Management, to talk about the significance of the monetary regime change and to answer one simple question: How do we play this volatility? We also hear from ZipRecruiter.com Chief Economist Julia Pollak about the enduring strength of the U.S. labor market. Watch the full conversion between Julia Pollak and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3MoBEwJ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
12 Okt 202239min
What Is the Bond Market Telling Us?
The Bank of England intervened in the U.K gilt market for the second time in two days Tuesday, with the following warning: "Dysfunction in this market, and the prospect of self-reinforcing 'fire sale' dynamics pose a material risk to UK financial stability." Real Vision Macro Analyst James Helliwell joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the BofE’s latest move and what kind of signal it is for a global financial system where conditions are already tight and tense. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic growth forecast on inflation’s negative effects, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s broad-based slowdown. Maggie welcomes Komal Sri-Kumar, the president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, for a discussion of central bank policy and where there may be opportunities for investors who aren’t distracted by a hawkish Federal Reserve. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
11 Okt 202236min
Why the Stock Selloff May Have Reached Its Limits
Stocks opened to the downside but trended higher throughout the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaking into positive territory in the early afternoon, as investors prepare for Thursday morning’s release of Consumer Price Index data for September. The up-and-down action surely reflects confusion: Market internals and sentiment data are actually bullish, but policymakers are raising the degree of difficulty. “In normal times,” writes Geo Chen in his most recent Substack post, “trading global macro is like playing 5-dimensional chess, which is hard enough. Today, with the added variables of geopolitics and central bankers on a mission, we are playing 10-dimensional chess.” Geo, the editor of Fidenza Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about what markets are telling us. We also hear from George Whitehead about what might make the Federal Reserve lift its foot from the monetary tightening brake. Watch the full conversation featuring George Whitehead and Larry McDonald here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-geopolitics/videos/london-calling-what-will-break-next-vxN2?tab=details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
10 Okt 202239min
The Next Big Trade - Jeff Booth Sees the Solution for a Broken Financial System
In Jeff Booth’s eyes, money is just information, and we desire the feeling we get when we have more of it. It’s also why, according to Booth, that money is being manipulated by central banks at an unprecedented rate to avoid a collapse in the credit system. So, how do we make things better? There is no perfect solution. But Booth sees a clear favorite, capable of delivering inordinate societal value. The popular author and serial entrepreneur joins Harry Melandri to talk about Bitcoin’s potential – noting that network effects are only making the world’s No. 1 cryptocurrency stronger over time. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
9 Okt 202251min
My Life in 4 Trades - Agility Is the Key to Good Trading
KPTL Arbitrage Management is one of the few crypto hedge funds that managed to profit from Terra’s crash. Its founding partner, Jay Janer, sheds insights on his journey from TradFi trading desks at Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley. He shares his approach to navigating the world of digital assets and explains why agility is a key characteristic of successful traders, regardless of asset class. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
8 Okt 202249min
Stocks Sink on Solid September Jobs Report
Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to 263,000 in September, in line with expectations, even as the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.7%. Combined with the relatively slow pace of firings, the Federal Reserve has all the data it needs to proceed with another 75-basis-point rate hike in November. But, as Peter Boockvar notes, the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims are lagging indicators. “My issue with the Fed,” notes Boockvar, “remains that after over-medicating us over the past few years that now shock therapy is overkill.” Boockvar joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed will go to get what it wants. We also share a sneak preview of a conversation between Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, and Maggie Lake about how the U.S. labor market has changed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
8 Okt 202238min
Will the Fed Have To Do More for Longer?
Stocks drifted mostly lower Thursday, as investors look to Friday’s nonfarm payroll data for signs the U.S. labor market is finally beginning to break. New applications for unemployment benefits did tick up to 219,000 from a revised 190,000 the prior week. That’s not going to move a Federal Reserve that only gets more hawkish with each stock-market rally – and that seems hell-bent on driving up unemployment as a means of bringing down inflation. “We believe central banks have finally realized that negative nominal yields have been a very big mistake,” notes Diego Parilla. Parrilla, portfolio manager at Quadriga Asset Managers and the author of "The Anti-Bubbles,” joins Maggie Lake to talk about central banks and the policy divergences among them that could make for historic volatility. We also hear from James Davolos about how to pick stocks in a new, higher-for-longer inflationary regime. Watch the full interview featuring James Davolos and Samuel Burke here: https://rvtv.io/3CAD97E. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
6 Okt 202252min
