The Mad Scramble for Power: Global Superpowers' Strategies for Energy, Economics, and War | Reality Roundtable #16

This week's Frankly is another edition of Nate's Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. Today's edition features reflections on a new peak in crude oil production, the growth of non-dispatchable electricity, and a report recently released by the World Economic Forum assessing global risks. Nate ties each topic to the larger story of the Great Simplification, updating listeners on what pathways might be available to pursue the long-term stability of humanity in the biosphere.  What factors have contributed to the new peak in oil production? How does dispatchability play into the current electricity landscape? And when global experts outline the future risks facing our world, who do we call on for action today?  (Recorded February 4th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

9 Feb 14min

This week's Frankly unpacks humans' current identification with the label "consumer." Consumption is something much deeper and more nuanced than shopping or spending. Nate highlights the ways that it shows up across our whole lives – from basic needs and stability to status and mental escape. He outlines a "consumption pyramid" framework that acts as a map for the different layers of consumption present in daily life, emphasizing that they vary in dependency, reliability, and necessity. This episode also explores why this understanding is especially relevant in a world that will be increasingly volatile, expensive, and uncertain. In the energetically-intensive reality we have lived in for the past few decades, it has been easy to drift to the top of the consumption pyramid without even really choosing to. This has made us increasingly dependent on systems that reliably provide us comfort and convenience. Rather than taking some sort of moral high ground on consumption, Nate aims to invite listeners to pay closer attention to their own patterns of consumption. He analyzes habits that could support stability, and how listeners might intentionally simplify before external circumstances force the issue – mirroring the taking stock he's doing in his own life. Where in your life do you feel most dependent on things always being fast, easy, and available? What kinds of consumption actually make you feel better afterward, not just distracted in the moment? Finally, if you stopped thinking of yourself primarily as a consumer, which other roles – maker, neighbor, caretaker, citizen – do you think would come most clearly into focus? (Recorded February 1, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

6 Feb 22min

Collapse has long been discussed in the public imagination as something that happens suddenly, immediately turning the world upside down. But history shows that collapse is more often characterized by the slow unraveling of a civilization. Usually, this is due to some combination of resource scarcity, economic stagnation, and compounding disruptions to productive capacity – yet it's barely perceptible in the day-to-day lives of the people within it. What are the signs that we could be living through such a moment right now, and if we are, how does history tell us to prepare for what's to come?  Today, Nate is joined by Balázs Matics, the author of the popular Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer, to explore the systemic reasons behind civilization's potential collapse, the importance of energy security, and the growing effects of geopolitical instability. Balázs emphasizes the overlooked importance of industrial inputs such as diesel fuel, and the implications of this as more parts of the world face resource scarcities. Together, they also discuss the possibilities of more localized production and communities rooted in compassion and cooperation as ways to navigate a post-growth future. As economic, geopolitical, and resource issues become more pressing, what will this mean for the future of environmental concerns such as global heating? What economic and industrial signals should governments actually be paying attention to in order to understand the health of a society? Finally, how can the humans paying attention to this story open up discourse where they live and start sowing the seeds of more resilient communities, even as the web of global complexity unravels?    About Balázs Matics: Balázs Matics is the author of the Substack blog The Honest Sorcerer where he writes on the topics of energy, economics, industrial materials, and other matters relevant to the future of civilization. He is located in Eastern Europe, where he is an industrial product engineer by training and has two decades of experience in manufacturing, supply chain, and project management at various multinational corporations. Having been involved in a number of international projects and after completing a 2 year post-graduate leadership program in supply chain and logistics, he has developed a unique understanding of the interconnected nature of our world and technologies.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

4 Feb 1h 16min

Last week there was so much news Nate recorded two Franklies – this is the second of those, which shares his reflections on a recent seminal essay posted by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, likening Artificial Intelligence as a "rite of passage" for the human species rather than just a narrow technological breakthrough. Amodei posits the possibility that we are now in what Carl Sagan once called a phase of "technological adolescence," wherein humans' technologies and tools become powerful enough to reshape or destabilize civilization faster than our collective wisdom can keep up. As a civilizational force, AI doesn't automatically act as humanity's salvation or catastrophe – it acts as a mirror that reflects the maturity (or immaturity) of the humans – and systems – deploying it. In this episode, Nate then widens the boundaries of the AI conversation to incorporate the biophysical reality and institutional systems that support these technologies, emphasizing energy, materials, infrastructure, governance, and incentives as the real limiting factors and alignment challenges. By incorporating the deeper structures that shape societal outcomes in this dialogue, he raises questions about how the assumption of shared goals like growth and optimization might steer AI towards outcomes that undermine ecological and social stability. What will it mean in biophysical terms if we introduce near-limitless cognitive power into a world already constrained by energy and materials? Is it possible for societies to build the wisdom, restraint, and governance needed to survive the "technological adolescence" of AI? And if "intelligence" becomes cheap and abundant with AI expansion, how might that impact humans' shared semblances of values, goals, and definitions of success? (Recorded January 29, 2026)   ---   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

2 Feb 31min

This week's Frankly inaugurates a new category for videos on The Great Simplification platform, Wide Boundary News, in which Nate invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. As we are increasingly inundated with vast quantities of news (and nervous system dysregulation!), it becomes important to be able to tease out a thread on how they interconnect. The stories we tell ourselves about progress, growth, and stability no longer perfectly line up with the biophysical reality beneath them – in Nate's words, 'A biophysical phase shift cometh.' This week's edition of Wide Boundary News features a look at multiple stories that signal a deep shift in the way humanity's economic system interacts with planetary resources and ecological systems. Using Japan and silver prices as points of departure, Nate unpacks how the financial layer of our global system has often been mistaken for the whole of reality – obscuring the fundamental inputs of the natural world that keep this system running. He also touches on the global tensions surrounding Venezuela and Greenland by illustrating how the increasing exposure of biophysical limits leads to the perpetuation of geopolitical resource control narratives (and even a resurgence of past visions of 'Technocracy'). Last but not least, Nate briefly discusses the U.S. polar vortex and a report recently published by the U.K. outlining concerns regarding global biodiversity loss and nature's say in all this, acknowledging the ways in which the "biophysical blinders" are coming off both institutionally and in our lived experiences. In what ways do events like Japan's bond market turbulence and spiking silver prices illustrate the deeper tensions between financial systems and material constraints? How might our institutions, communities, and values change (or double down) as the biosphere's limits become increasingly hard to ignore? And where, amid bending systems and mounting limitations, do genuine leverage points for a different future still exist? (Recorded January 27, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

30 Jan 31min

For many people reading this, the crises we discuss on this podcast – from ecological instability to financial collapse – often feel like a distant problem in the future. But for the youth of today, managing the impact of these situations will define most of their lives, and many have already dedicated their careers to mitigating the worst outcomes. What do the leading young voices envision for the future, and what are they doing today to make that a reality?  In this episode, Nate is joined by indigenous environmental justice activist and Planetary Guardian, Xiye Bastida, to discuss how her indigenous heritage and leadership in the youth climate movement have helped guide her to continue her work toward a more ecologically attuned world. Together, they discuss the importance of intergenerational collaboration rooted in love, rather than simply rage or blind hope. Importantly, Xiye emphasizes what could become possible if we change our definition of what success looks like, live closer to the Earth, and start to view our planet as a sacred teacher, rather than a well of resources from which to extract.  What are the hopes and fears of younger generations during these increasingly tumultuous times? How might indigenous wisdom inform our aspirations and strategy as we attempt to navigate the increasingly challenging world ahead? And how could a closer connection to the land help us cultivate a more sustained inner fire in order to continue moving in the direction of better futures – even if we don't yet know the exact destination? (Conversation recorded on December 3rd, 2025)    About Xiye Bastida: Xiye Bastida is a 23-year-old activist and member of the Planetary Guardians, an independent collective elevating the science to make the Planetary Boundaries a measurement framework for the world and spark a global movement by inviting everyone to become guardians of our shared home. Xiye is the Co-Founder and Executive Director of Re-Earth Initiative, a global youth-led organization that has raised and allocated millions of dollars to help fund effective, small-scale projects across frontline communities in the Global South. Additionally, she has become a leading voice in the climate movement, organizing climate strikes, speaking on global stages like the United Nations, and redefining storytelling through her upcoming film, The Way of the Whale. Additionally, Xiye has been recognized as a TIME 100 Next honoree, recipient of the UN Spirit Award, a Forbes Changemaker, and is currently a 776 Fellow, continuing to scale youth-led climate leadership globally. Most recently, she was named on Forbes' 30 under 30 Social Impact List.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

28 Jan 1h 22min

In this week's episode, Nate reflects on his experience with knee surgery and being a "creature in the machine" (the Superorganism). He touches on the often-forgotten nature of our physical existence in a world dominated by cognitive labor and abstractions, exploring the tension between gratitude for the gains of modern medicine and knowledge of the hidden energetic cost of these technologies.  Alongside these personal reflections, Nate unpacks his thoughts on some current political events and considers timely questions of power, legitimacy, and social fragmentation in a post-peak carbon world. He adds insights from the two books he's read during recovery, putting Tolkien's Fellowship of the Ring in conversation with Kingsnorth's Against the Machine in order to highlight the growing contrast of our humanity against the larger power-oriented system. Running through the episode is an invitation to remain human, embodied, and relational even while benefiting from, critiquing, and resisting the forces that seek to turn life into components.  What does it mean to remain as a biological "creature" while living inside vast, and increasingly abstract, technological and economic systems? Where does gratitude for modern capabilities come into balance with responsibility for their costs? Finally, what practices might help preserve human meaning, agency, and connection in an increasingly mechanized world? (Recorded January 21, 2026)   Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

23 Jan 20min

Humans have shaped the world more than any other species in existence, largely due to our ability to coordinate and work together as a unit – in other words, to govern ourselves. This means that, while human societies are at the center of the many crises we face today, we are also the key to navigating through them safely. But this is only possible if we're able to hold the foundations of our governance together: communication, agency, and remembering our shared humanity. What is the current state of our ability to do this, and what policy mechanisms and agreements are needed to navigate the turbulent decades to come?  In this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by geopolitical risk experts Mark Medish and Chuck Watson to discuss the increasing strain being placed on human governance as a result of escalating conflicts between nations and state leaders. Together, they delve into the intricate foundations of our modern governing structures and why it is critical that we reinforce existing international treaties and agreements in order to avoid the worst outcomes for all of humanity. Mark and Chuck also discuss the history of nuclear arms control – including the upcoming expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) – and how artificial intelligence threatens to disturb the tenuous peace built in the 20th century. Ultimately, they emphasize the need to renew public awareness and education on the importance of governance and the need for our leadership to engage in diplomatic negotiations in an increasingly complex world. Despite the media's focus on laws, regulations, and technology, why do people and our shared humanity still lay at the center of good governance and decision making? Where are our current leaders failing us, and does the average citizen still hold agency to influence the trajectory of global events? Lastly, what do we risk by abandoning trust in our fellow citizens and nations, and what opportunities are still available to rebuild our confidence in each other?  (Conversation recorded on January 8th, 2026)   About Mark Medish: Mark Medish has over 30 years of professional experience in policy, law, finance, and strategic communications. Medish served at The White House as a Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director on the National Security Council, as well as at the U.S. Treasury as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs. He also worked in senior positions at the State Department (USAID) and the United Nations (UNDP). Medish is Vice Chair of Project Associates Ltd., a London headquartered strategic consultancy with offices in Europe, the Middle East, East Africa, and the U.S. He is also a founding partner of the Mosaiq Law Group in Washington, D.C., and a co-founder of Keep Our Republic, a non-profit civic education organization promoting democratic governance and rule of law. His previous business leadership posts include: president of The Messina Group, a boutique strategic communications firm based in Washington, D.C.; president of the international division of Guggenheim Partners, an asset management company headquartered in Chicago; and equity partner at Akin Gump, an international law firm where he led the sovereign advisory practice. He worked as a vice president for studies and senior scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was a visiting research fellow at The Japan Institute of International Affairs in Tokyo. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is also a board member of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University and the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) in Vienna.   About Chuck Watson: Chuck Watson has had a long career in international development projects as well as military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human-made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attaché to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.  Chuck has worked as an advisor to governments for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction.   Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---    Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

21 Jan 1h 27min