The Horn28 Mar 2022

A Vicious Cycle: Climate and Conflict in the Horn of Africa

Extreme weather events in Africa are becoming increasingly common, often striking in areas already prone to insecurity and scarcity. While the relationship between climate and security is both complex and context-specific, the broad risks are clear: modelling shows that temperature increases of as little as half a degree could, in some contexts, lead to a 10-20 per cent increase in the risk of violence. Erratic weather has already contributed to conflicts across the Horn – from Somalia to Kenya and South Sudan – a clear demonstration of climate change’s impact as a threat multiplier, exacerbating insecurity and existing tensions.

This week on The Horn, guest host Nicolas Delaunay, Crisis Group’s senior communications officer for Africa, is joined by Nazanine Moshiri, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for climate & security, to untangle this complex relationship and its implications for the continent. They break down how changing weather patterns and natural disasters have shaped, and sometimes triggered, conflicts in Somalia, Kenya and South Sudan, often in very different ways. They also discuss the need for better adaptation measures and ask how Africa can best reckon with climate change, stressing the urgency of putting climate security on the agenda ahead of COP27.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, make sure to check out our Climate Change and Conflict page.

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