SI342: From Trend Following to Super Determinism ft. Richard Brennan

Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a robust portfolio actually means.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:41 – Macro recap from Niels03:54 – Weekly review of performance52:18 – Q1; Zack: Are there any known Trend Following strategies that increase position sizes as volatility increases?57:55 – Benchmark performance update01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Paul Singer on the End Game Podcast with Grant Williams, <a...

24 Jan 20211h 1min

In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures. Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play out? What are your views on stop-losses?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:40 – Macro recap from Niels05:06 – Weekly review of performance53:15 – Q1; Carlos: Has March 2020 impacted how you view your Trend Following approach?59:14 – Q2; James: Why did Moritz place a discretionary short-trade on Tesla last month? Why does Dunn Capital avoid using stop-losses? What are your most memorable trades?01:12:09 – Q3; Peter: Do you recommend any particular brokers?01:17:30 – Q4; Craig: What are your thoughts on managed futures ETFs?01:20:22 – Benchmark performance update01:21:21 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Macro Voices Podcast ft Art

18 Jan 20211h 24min

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro03:07 – Macro recap from Niels03:59 – Weekly review of performance47:20 – Q1; Michael: How many truly diversifying instruments are there, globally?54:42 – Q2; Bruno: As a futures trader, how do you recommend I manage the cash part of my portfolio?01:02:30 – Q3; Kyle: What are your thoughts on scaling in and out of positions?01:08:46 – Q4; Craig: How can Trend Following take advantage of a ‘risk aversion’ environment?01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Matt Levine’s articles Bloomberg, <a...

10 Jan 20211h 21min

In this episode, I conclude my special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system, with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system. I also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights ReservedPrivacy Policy----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following...

6 Jan 202136min

In today’s special episode, I go deep into how to design a robust and profitable Trend Following program. I also cover topics such as why having an opinion on any of your trading positions can be a bad idea, how Trend Following returns can vary massively with just a slight shift in portfolio weightings, the benefits of having a unique approach to the markets, and why longer-term trading may be more profitable than short-term trading.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:0:00 – Intro1:37 – A thank-you to our hosts, previous guests, production team, and all listeners of the show3:35 – 2020 Macro recap from Niels6:51 – How to think about trading and system development31:59 – Performance recapCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general...

2 Jan 202137min

Today we welcome back Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert onto the show to discuss the possible long-term breakout of commodity prices, trading Tesla around its inclusion into the S&P 500 index, carrying out non-system trades, Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, the importance of staying in some of these long-awaited trends, relying on your backtest regardless of the circumstances, why long-only buy & hold funds might not deserve many plaudits this year, the perfect time to make adjustments to your system, and why it can be a good idea to avoid being too skeptical in the markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:28 – Macro recap from Niels04:13 – Weekly review of performance12:34 – What is risk management?57:50 – Q1; Michael: When you trade foreign instruments, do you trade them in their native currencies?01:00:54 – Q2; Jim: Does the need for diversification outweigh the benefits of concentrated gains?01:14:37 – Benchmark performance update01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading this week: Hidden Forces podcast, Kyle Bass on the Macro Voices Podcast

21 Des 20201h 22min

Special guest Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show today to discuss how Trend Following strategies performed during this very unusual year, the likeliest safe-haven assets of 2021, whether or not 2020 should be a year that brings about new adjustments to your trading systems, how being nimble can increase robustness, Trend Following as a ‘store of value’, whether the context of financial & world news should be important to systematic trading, the disconnect between financial assets & the real-world economy, and we also attempt to explain the returns dispersion found among similar strategies this year.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:17 – Macro recap from Niels02:40 – Weekly review of performance13:15 – Moritz: What do you see the narrative for 2021 Trend Following strategies will be?27:07 – Niels: How would your performance look this year if you took out the 2 biggest winners?53:09 – Trend Following as a store of value01:07:42 – Benchmark performance update01:08:32 – Jerry Parker joins us on the show next week. Send in any questions you may have.01:08:45 – Recommended listening or reading: In Defense of Trouble...

13 Des 20201h 13min

Today, we discuss why a random calendar year is not a good measure of performance, recent increased volatility in alternative markets, how to define an ‘alternative’ market, the strong case for a mixed portfolio of stocks & Trend Following strategies, how to perform the easy-money Bitcoin trade, the benefits of using and investing in Bitcoin, trading the Chinese futures markets, and why a Trend Following system would have entered you into a Tesla position without the need for any predictions.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro02:15 – Macro recap from Niels05:14 – Weekly review of performance52:51 – Q1; Fernando: How have your views on position sizing evolved over the years? & What are your thoughts on managing drawdowns?01:03:18 – Benchmark performance update01:06:10 – Recommended podcast listening this week: Rishi Narang on the Chat With Traders Podcast & Keith McCullough on The Felder Report podcastCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together...

6 Des 20201h 12min