What To Do at the Acceptance Stage of the Tightening Cycle
Markets achieved a relative calm today following yesterday’s steep sell-off, as investors continued to process hotter-than-expected August Consumer Price Index data and priced in expectations-meeting Producer Price Index data. What we have now, as Darius Dale sees it, is the transition from the Federal Reserve pushing back on “pivot” expectations to market participants accepting the implications of a single-mandate central bank: a downturn in the global liquidity cycle. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what that means for prices of risk assets, including equities, crude oil, and Bitcoin. The key question, of course, is this: Where can we hide from what appears to be an imminent bear-market rout? We also hear from Peter Boockvar about what a strong U.S. dollar means to various market constituents. Watch the complete conversation between Peter Boockvar and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
15 Sep 202239min
Inflation Is Still Super Hot
The Nasdaq Composite led equity indexes to the downside, Bitcoin followed suit in the crypto market, and the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note spiked in the aftermath of this morning’s release of Consumer Price Index data for August. Expectations-beating 8.3% annual and 0.1% monthly readings all but guarantee the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a third straight 75-basis-point rate hike following its meeting next week. The question is, is it time to talk about 100 basis points? And how do we position our portfolios should the Fed get even more hawkish? Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, to talk about inflation, the Fed, and portfolio positioning in this environment. We also hear from Peter Boockvar about the impact on company earnings of higher energy and other input costs. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Peter Boockvar here: https://rvtv.io/3xkirps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
14 Sep 202235min
Is Inflation Cooling Fast Enough for the Fed?
The New York Federal Reserve’s monthly consumer survey showed expectations for inflation over the next 12 months declined to 5.75% in August from 6.2% in July, as investors await Tuesday’s release of Consumer Price Index data for more clues about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Gordon Johnson, the founder of GLJ Research, joins Maggie Lake to talk about how the Federal Reserve will interpret recent inflation data in the broader global economic context. With stocks on the rise, yields on the decline, and the inflation genie seemingly on its way back into the bottle, are things really getting better? We also hear from Mike Novogratz, who was live at the SALT Conference in New York City, about opportunities that are sure to emerge over the next three to five years amid a shifting macro landscape. We apologize for the abbreviated episode, as we were dealing with technical issues that caused it to be cut short. We’ve resolved those issues, and we hope to get Gordon Johnson back on the Daily Briefing soon to talk about the global economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
13 Sep 202215min
The Next Big Trade - A Masterclass on Natural Resource Investing with Marin Katusa
Marin Katusa has made a fortune investing in natural resources. He's also arranged more than $2 billion in deal financing in the sector and written the New York Times best-seller book “The Colder War” and the Amazon.com best-seller “The Rise of America.” In this fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade, Marin explains to Harry Melandri why the rule of law in relevant jurisdictions is critical for successful natural resource investing and identifies the uranium, carbon, and gold companies in which he’s invested. ** Transparency is of utmost importance to Real Vision and as such the disclosure from today guest, Marin Katusa, includes his position as co-chair of the board of directors of Carbon Royalty Corp. He’s also one of the largest individual shareholders of Carbon Streaming Corp ($OFSTF). Marin arranged financing for and is a shareholder of Uranium Royalty Corp ($UROY). He’s a shareholder of Uranium Energy Corp ($UEC). He’s a large shareholder of Osisko Development Corp ($ODV), and his wife sits on the Osisko Development board of directors.** Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
11 Sep 20221h
My Life in 4 Trades - How Pippa Malmgren’s Background Helps Her Build Bridges
Dr. Pippa Malmgren is a world-renowned economist and a former advisor to President George W. Bush. She uses her background in geopolitics to spot what's coming next, including the 2007 Global Financial Crisis, President Trump's election, and the return of inflation. On this special episode of My Life in Four Trades, Pippa talks to Real Vision’s Samuel Burke about the power of storytelling and how she acts as a bridge between investors and lawmakers. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
10 Sep 202249min
What's Driving the Rebound in Risk Assets?
If we understand the macro through what the major equity indexes and more modern indicators such as Bitcoin and Ethereum tell us, then, at least for today, it’s all good. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, with a 2% gain heading into the last two hours of the trading week. With recent price action reflecting a “risk on” mood heading into the weekend, Michele “Mish” Schneider, the author of “Plant Your Money Tree,” joins Maggie Lake to talk about key levels for stocks, bonds, crypto and the dollar. Mish also shares critical information about hot sectors such as solar and EVs, emerging markets and trends, and the all-important commodity sector. What’s peaking right now, and what’s not? Mish and Maggie will answer that question and any others you’d like to ask – please share yours in the chat! Follow along with todays charts here: https://rvtv.io/3BuA7Br Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
10 Sep 202243min
Did the ECB Quit the Inflation Fight?
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell held competing public appearances this morning, as the ECB announced its biggest-ever interest-rate increase and the Fed doubled down on its commitment to fighting inflation. Lagarde’s message was more mixed, however, with higher borrowing costs only increasing the risk of recession in Europe. “We have calls like this for people freezing to death and a sovereign debt crisis, and I’m like, ‘I think they’re going to figure it out’,” wrote Jared Dillian in a recent issue of The Daily DirtNap. “I’m not saying there will be a good solution, only that there will be a solution.” Jared joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing for an assessment of Europe’s crises. Then, Andreas welcomes Weston Nakamura to talk about central banks, the forex market, and the rising probability of Japanese yen intervention. We also hear from Josh Young about why energy is the most compelling area of the market right now and how oil and gas stocks are phenomenally mis-priced. Watch the full conversation between Josh Young and Harris Kupperman here: https://rvtv.io/3RJIoqm. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
9 Sep 202237min
When Central Bankers Take Center Stage
The European Central Bank is expected to announce another 75-basis-point rate hike following its meeting tomorrow, even as the euro weakens against the U.S. dollar and authorities on the continent contend with an escalating energy crisis. Equity markets remain highly attuned to what central bankers say, with the major U.S. indexes bouncing on comments by Fed Governor Lael Brainard. “It seems the bond market is already pricing in a positive revision to the Fed’s inflation target,” tweeteds Darius Dale. “An outcome that may become reality towards the end of this tightening cycle.” Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about competing priorities for fiscal and monetary authorities, August PMI prints, supply-chain disruptions, and disinflation and inflation expectations compared to the Fed’s “price stability” mandate. We also hear from Emil Kalinowski about why European policymakers must backstop private lending in this escalating crisis. Watch the full video featuring Emil Kalinowski and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3D9VHfA. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
8 Sep 202238min
