Is This the End of the US Exceptionalism Trade?
Odd Lots17 Apr 2025

Is This the End of the US Exceptionalism Trade?

For years and years now, there has been one winning trade: Go long the US versus the rest of the world. Thanks to tech dynamism and general pro-growth US macro policies, American assets have far outstripped their global peers. Of course, there have been some bumps along the way, but they've usually been global bumps. The financial crisis in 2008-2009 was global. Covid was a shock for the entire world. But with Trump's tariffs, we are now looking at a story that has the potential to be US-specific, even if a trade war will be felt internationally. And so investors are asking the question of whether US exceptionalism has come to an end, and there may be better opportunities elsewhere. On this episode we speak with Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank. He tells us what his clients are thinking about and the various scenarios whereby US assets continue to underperform. We also discuss the implications of the US becoming more EM-like in its politics, and its financial markets.

Read More: End of 'America First' Trade Is Boosting Europe's Markets
The World Is Finding a Plausible Alternative to Treasuries

Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episoder(1180)

This Is How Big Money Is Trading the War in Iran

This Is How Big Money Is Trading the War in Iran

Markets are often said to be "headline-driven," but that cliché has rarely felt more true than it does right now. A single tweet or Truth Social post can send prices sharply higher or lower, and inves...

26 Mar 39min

The Petrochemicals Shock That's Already Rippling Through Plastics

The Petrochemicals Shock That's Already Rippling Through Plastics

Everyone knows by now that war in Iran is curbing the flow of oil around the world. But oil isn't just a gasoline and jet fuel story, of course. It's also a crucial feedstock for a bunch of petrochemi...

25 Mar 53min

David Shor and Byrne Hobart on the Politics of a White-Collar Wipeout

David Shor and Byrne Hobart on the Politics of a White-Collar Wipeout

Nobody knows when or if AI will lead to mass displacement of white-collar work. But the anxiety is clearly here now, and there's very little evidence that our politicians are taking it seriously. Of c...

24 Mar 55min

What the Iran War Means for Dubai's Luxury Boom

What the Iran War Means for Dubai's Luxury Boom

Dubai has become a huge destination for the rich, with an influx of high-net-worth residents driving up property prices and boosting the UAE's tax revenues in recent years. And of course, Gulf countri...

23 Mar 55min

Introducing: Leaders with Francine Lacqua

Introducing: Leaders with Francine Lacqua

What makes a leader successful? Francine Lacqua interviews top CEOs and global industry leaders for candid lessons on leadership, management, and the future of work.See omnystudio.com/listener for pri...

22 Mar 1min

Here's Why The Iran War Is Prompting A Safe Haven Rethink

Here's Why The Iran War Is Prompting A Safe Haven Rethink

Here's Why is Bloomberg’s short explainer podcast, where we take one big news story and break it down in just a few minutes with help from our experts across the newsroom. We're dropping into your fee...

21 Mar 12min

Greg Brew on Surging Energy and the 'Strategic Trap' of the War in Iran

Greg Brew on Surging Energy and the 'Strategic Trap' of the War in Iran

The war in Iran has already lasted longer than many people might have expected. There was an initial assumption, after oil prices started surging, that President Trump could just declare victory at an...

20 Mar 53min

How War in Iran Will Squeeze America's Farmers Even Further

How War in Iran Will Squeeze America's Farmers Even Further

America’s farmers can’t seem to catch a break. Years of thin margins and rising costs have already stretched them to the limit. And now, war with Iran is making things even harder. The conflict is dri...

19 Mar 47min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
e24-podden
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
pengesnakk
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
pengepodden-2
utbytte
rss-markedspuls-2
liberal-halvtime
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
rss-politisk-preik
finansredaksjonen
lederpodden
rss-pa-konto
rss-investering-gjort-enkelt
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen