US Inflation Cools, China Tariff Truce, and UK Jobs Data: PALvatar Market Recap, May 13 2025

In this unique edition of the Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor Ed Harrison and senior editor Ash Bennington give a breaking news update on the unprecedented events unfolding in Washington, D.C., whether or not they will have impact on the markets having closed at record high, and if they are reflective of events on the ground or are divorced from political and social reality. Then, Real Vision’s Nick Correa discusses the ADP jobs report and the possibility of a jobless recovery for the U.S. economy. In the main segment, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy tells Real Vision’s Jack Farley how her reflation thesis has been shaped by recent events such as the Georgia runoff election, the release of the Fed’s FOMC minutes, and the chaos in the nation’s capital. Alden shares her latest trades on EM bank stocks and breaks down various quantitative measures to value Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

7 Jan 202159min

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes back Tony Greer of TG Macro to share his thoughts on the first rally of the new year. Tony arrives in high spirits as the eye-popping gains of crude oil, iron ore, and nickel authenticate his bullish-commodities thesis. He eyes the agricultural grain commodities such as wheat and corn for entry points and tells Ash why the ISM Manufacturing reading of 60.7 shows him why inflation isn’t just on the horizon but is in fact already here. Ash provides context on Chinese demand for commodities and Saudi Arabia’s unilateral output cut of oil. Lastly, Tony broadens his gaze to the macro picture, declaring that the ultra-dovish policies of the Federal Reserve are creating a “liquidity bonanza” that is rendering commodities an “inflation hedge paradise.” In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin reports on tonight’s two runoff senate elections in Georgia and their potential market impact. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Jan 202136min

Hayman Capital's founder and CIO Kyle Bass welcomes forensic accountant and Behind the Balance Sheet's founder Stephen Clapham to break down the accounting irregularities peppered throughout the regulatory filings of China’s biggest tech companies. Sharing insights from his proprietary research report on Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, Meituan Dianping, and Tencent, Clapham shines a light on the ways these companies are using loopholes in order to inflate profits, hide liabilities, and mask the capitalization of questionable assets. Bass frames Clapham's findings through the lens of notable balance sheet disasters and downright frauds, and they explore the jurisdictional risk of investing in Chinese companies in general. Lastly, Bass asks Clapham about his latest book, "The Smart Money Method: How to Pick Stocks Like A Hedge Fund Pro". Key Learnings: Hidden risks lurk within corporate balance sheets, even those of the world’s largest tech companies. Stephen Clapham and Kyle Bass show viewers how to spot those risks before they can inflict major damage to your portfolio. Recorded on November 18, 2020 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

5 Jan 202147min

Mike Green kicks off the Real Vision Daily Briefing in 2021 with Real Vision’s Max Wiethe. Although markets sold off and volatility rose sharply, Mike was not particularly surprised by today’s price action and attributes today’s selloff to market participants who waited until 2021 to take profits rather than the runoff risks that many attributed to this. He also makes the case for markets building towards a substantial correction at some point in 2021 and gives his outlook for the Georgia runoff and other important events on the horizon. In the intro section, Haley Draznin analyzes recent price action in bitcoin and equity markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Jan 202138min

Recorded on October 8, 2020. Olaf Carlson-Wee, founder & CEO of Polychain Capital, joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss Web3, decentralized finance, and the future of blockchain technology. Carlson-Wee describes his background, being Coinbase’s first employee, and the creation of Polychain Capital. He covers decentralized autonomous organizations, how they operate today, and how they will look in the future. Carlson-Wee goes into detail about the next generation of blockchains and how they differ from Bitcoin and the utility they hope to achieve. He explains the importance of defi and breaks down how he approaches research to find "the next big thing". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

4 Jan 20211h 4min

Recorded on 17 August 2020. It's no secret that as of late, precious metals have become the talk of the town. Gold recently blasted through its all time high, while silver continues its seemingly unstoppable run. With so much excitement surrounding the two metals, however, one must exercise extreme caution and discipline when choosing a way to gain exposure since not all assets are cut from the same cloth --particularly when it comes to the mining sector. On this segment of Real Vision Live, we bring you an individual that is well versed on the matter as he managed to turn $250k into several million by investing in a mining company that turned out to be a scam. Ultimately, he sold and immediately shorted the stock, which in turn allowed him to benefit from both the rise and fall. Warren Irwin, President and CIO at Rosseau Asset Management, will be joining Max Wiethe to discuss the nature of scams in the mining space and how to go about choosing the right companies to take part in what many believe could be the beginning of a bull market in precious metals. List of things to watch out for when investing in junior miners: https://rvtv.io/31oGWT9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

3 Jan 202156min

Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to re-imagine the future of money, credit, currency, and interest rates. The great predicament of the past decade, Hendry argues, has been the tendency of central bank lending to become "trapped" in the commercial banking sector as reserves rather than being funneled into the real economy to fund productive activity. To fix this problem, Hendry envisions a world of ultra-negative rates in order to funnel the liquidity out of the financial sector. Short-term rates would have to go to -3% -- perhaps even lower in order to accommodate a steep yield curve -- is needed for banks to not go out of business. Pal investigates the profound consequences that this paradigm shift in monetary policy would have on the dollar, inflation, and creation, asking Hendry about alternatives such as perpetual bonds and modern monetary theory. Pal and Hendry then consider the optimal portfolio for this brave new world, including assets such as gold, calls on Eurodollar futures, and even Bitcoin. Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos Key learnings: A move to ultra-negative interest rates might be necessary to force liquidity out of the banking system and into the real economy. Such a paradigm shift in monetary policy would drench most assets in unprecedented liquidity and make cash a very unattractive asset to hold. Recorded on November 12, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

2 Jan 20211h 9min

Long-term investment strategist and co-founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham has made a name for himself as a bubble spotter. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Grantham argues that although we are again in a market bubble, it has an entirely different make up than prior bubbles and is almost devoid of the opportunity that these periods of misallocation historically provide. As a result, he sees opportunities as few and far between in public markets. With the exception of emerging markets and the greening of the economy, an endeavor that he believes is a societal necessity, he encourages investors to look towards venture. Together, Grantham and Green also debate China's position in Grantham's emerging market thesis and the green revolution, the pollution paradoxes of greening the economy, and the merits of societies and forms government that incentivize cooperation among people and risk taking in the form of early stage venture capital. Key Learnings: Emerging markets are the only place that Grantham sees clear opportunity in public markets. Using COVID response as a case study, Grantham worries about America’s potential to solve the problem of climate change. He also argues that if not for venture capital, American innovation would be non-existent. Recorded on November 18, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

1 Jan 20211h 25min