Japan Summit: Consumer Resilience and Trade Uncertainty

As we enter the second half of 2022, the market is signaling a continued de-rating of equities, lingering challenges for consumers, and an increased bearishness among equity investors.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, May 23rd at 9 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. As we’ve discussed our mid-year outlook the past few weeks, I'd like to share some key takeaways on today's podcast. First, the de-rating of equities is no longer up for debate. However, there is disagreement on how low price earnings multiple should fall. We believe the S&P 500 price earnings multiple will fall towards 14x, ahead of the oncoming downward earnings revisions, which is how we arrive at our near-term overshoot of fair value of 3400 for the S&P 500. Second, the consumer is still a significant battleground. While COVID has been a terrible period in history, many U.S. consumers, like companies, benefited financially from the pandemic. Our view coming into 2022 was that this tailwind would end for most households, as we anniversaried the stimulus, asset prices de-rated and inflation in non discretionary items like shelter, food and energy ate into savings. Consumer confidence readings for the past six months support our view. Yet many investors have continued to argue the consumer is likely to surprise on the upside with spending, as they use excess savings to maintain a permanently higher plateau of consumption. Third, technology bulls are getting more concerned on growth. This is new and in stark contrast to the first quarter when tech bulls argued work from home benefited only a few select companies, while most would continue to see very strong growth from positive secular trends for technology spend. Some bulls have even argued technology spending is no longer cyclical but structural and non-discretionary, especially in a world where costs are rising so much. We disagree with that view and argue technology spending would follow corporate cash flow growth and sentiment. We have found many technology investors are now on our page and more worried about companies missing forecasts. While some may view this as bullish from a sentiment standpoint, we think it's a bearish sign as formerly dedicated tech investors will be more hesitant to buy the dip. In short, we believe technology spending is likely to go through a cyclical downturn this year, and it could extend to even the more durable areas like software. Finally, energy is the one sector where a majority of investors are consistently bullish now. This is not necessarily a contrarian signal in our view, but we are a bit more concerned about the recent crowding as energy remains the only sector other than utilities that is up on the year. With oil and gasoline prices so high, there is a growing risk we have reached a level of demand destruction. We remain neutral on energy with a positive bias for the more defensive names that pay a solid dividend.Bottom line, equity clients are bearish overall and not that optimistic about a quick rebound. While this is a necessary condition for a sustainable low in equity prices, we don't think it's a sufficient one. While our 12 month target for the S&P 500 is 3900, we expect an overshoot to the downside this summer that could come sooner rather than later. We think 3400 is a level that more accurately reflects the earnings risk in front of us, and expect that level to be achieved by the end of the second quarter earnings season, if not sooner. Vicious bear market rallies will continue to appear until then, and we would use them to lighten up on stocks most vulnerable to the oncoming earnings reset. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people to find the show.

23 Mai 20223min

2022 is off to a rocky start for markets, but there is an organization to this downturn that is unlike recent episodes of market weakness, meaning investors can use tried-and-true strategies to bring order to the chaos.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, May 20th, at 3 p.m. in London. There are a lot of ways to describe the market at the moment. One that I'm increasingly fond of is "organized chaos". Chaos because, well, the year is off to a historically bad start. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down about 20%. The U.S. aggregate bond index is down about 9%. And almost every asset class that isn't commodities has posted negative returns. This weakness has been both large and relentless. For the stock market, it's been seven straight weeks of losses. Yet all of this weakness has also been surprisingly organized. The worst performing parts of the stock market have been the most expensive, least profitable parts of it. After being unusually low for a long time, bond yields and credit spreads have risen. After outperforming to an extreme degree, growth stocks and U.S. equities are now lagging. Indeed, if you don't know how a particular asset class has done this year, "moving closer to its long run valuation average" is a pretty good guess. So as difficult as 2022 has been, many tried and true strategies are working. Rules based approaches, also known as systematic strategies, have in some cases been performing quite well. Relative value strategies, which trade within an asset class based on relative valuation, yield, momentum or fundamentals, have been working unusually well. That's different from four prior episodes that saw similar or greater weakness than we see today. Those episodes being the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, the European sovereign crisis of 2011 and 2012, the volatility shocks of 2018 and Covid's emergence in 2020. Each of these four instances were notable for being disorganized, stressed, with very unusual movements below the market surface. Why does this matter? First, it suggests that investors should move toward relative value in this environment, which has been working, rather than taking large directional positions. Second, it suggests that this downturn is different from those that we've known since 2008. It is still difficult, but it is more gradual, less stressed, and more about specific debates around growth and risk premiums, than existential questions such as whether the banking system or the European Union will survive. While that difference has many potential implications, one specific one is that it’s less problematic for high quality credit, which did unusually poorly during these more recent crises, but which we think will do better this time around. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

20 Mai 20222min

With rising prices already on the minds of investors and consumers, the outlook in Europe remains challenged across supply chains, inflation rates and energy markets. Chief European Economist Jens Eisenschmidt and Global Oil Strategist and Head of the European Energy Team Martijn Rats discuss.-----Transcript-----Jens Eisenschmidt: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Morgan Stanley's Chief European Economist. Martijn Rats: And I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist and Head of the European Energy Research Team. Jens Eisenschmidt: And today on the podcast, we will be talking about the outlook for the European economy for the next 12 months in the very challenging context of rising energy prices and sustained inflationary pressure. It's Thursday, May 19, at 4 p.m. in London. Jens Eisenschmidt: So, Martin, I wanted to talk with you today about some burning issues that seem to be topmost on everybody's mind these days, namely rising energy prices and inflation. These challenges are affecting literally everyone. And Europe, in particular, is acutely feeling the impact from the war in Ukraine. Let's maybe pick up with a topic you discussed on this podcast back in January. So even prior to the war in Ukraine, you talked about five enduring tailwinds boosting commodities. So far in 22, commodities are on track to outperform equities for the second consecutive year. Now that we are approaching the mid-year mark, what's your outlook for the second half of 22 in terms of commodities and which ones are likely to outperform the most in the current environment? Martijn Rats: Some things have changed, but also a lot of things are still the same when it comes to the outlook for commodities. Commodities move in long cycles. The last decade was, on the whole, more challenging, but we think that we're still in the relatively early innings of what could be a long cycle ahead. You already mentioned the five enduring tailwinds that we've previously written about and discussed on podcasts like this. First of all, is inflation. Commodities often do well in inflationary periods, and the inflationary pressures are still there, that's one. Secondly, geopolitical risk. Thirdly, there's the energy transition. For a broad range of commodities the energy transition is a demand tailwind, but for a lot of others, it's basically a red flag not to invest in supply. Then fourthly, a lot of commodities have gone through a long period of very little investment. That sets up a tighter supply outlook. And then finally there's reopening. A lot of reopening has already played out, but there are still important pockets of reopening that have yet to fully materialize. A lot of that thesis is still the same. And I would expect that this will carry the commodity asset class for some time. Now, in terms of how things have changed at the start of the year, we were more optimistic about demand for a lot of commodities, and those expectations have come down a little bit because the economic slowdown, because of China. But we were also more optimistic about the supply for those commodities. We've seen a lot of headwinds in terms of the supply of a broad range of commodities, particularly because of the war in the Ukraine. So net net our balances are broadly still equally tight, if not slightly tighter, and that's to still set up the commodity asset class quite well. Also for the second half, the ones that we prefer the most, it's mostly the energy commodities. We think they'll do better than the metals. That is already happening as we speak, but there is more to come in that relative trade in the second half as well. Jens Eisenschmidt: Let's talk a little bit about oil. You've said that you continue to see upside to oil prices, even though the nature of your thesis has changed since the start of the year. Could you walk us through your thinking specifically around oil? Martijn Rats: Yes. At the start of the year, we were thinking that oil demand could grow this year by something like 3.5 to 4 million barrels a day, year over year compared to 2021. And that expectation had turned out to be too optimistic. There are basically two reasons for that. First of all, is China. The Zero-Covid policies in China and the stringent lockdowns that have come with that means that at the moment we're probably losing something like 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand in China right now. Now, that might not last the entire year, but there is a material effect. And then also economic growth expectations have come down. And as a result, we also had to moderate our oil demand forecasts. But then on the supply side, we had to make even bigger changes. Russian production has fallen by broadly a million barrels a day already, and we think that that will continue to fall by another million barrels a day in the second half of the year. So when you add it all up, I'm sure our demand expectations have fallen, but they are already at a level that I would say is reflective of the current situation while there's still meaningful supply risks and when you put those two things combined, actually our balances are even slightly tighter than they were at the start of the year. Hence the call, as we've had it for a while, for $130 brent by the third quarter. Jens Eisenschmidt: Turning to the European gas markets. Gas prices in Europe are roughly five times as high as in the U.S., reflecting the increased risk to Russian supply created by the war in Ukraine. What are your expectations in terms of Europe following through on its intent to phase out Russian gas? And what potential scenarios do you see playing out here? Martijn Rats: The story about European gas is is quite a bit different from what it is to oil. There is clearly heightened risk in the European gas market right now that is reflected in price. As a result, the price is well above historical levels, is well above the levels that prevail in the United States. But that also means that a lot of the world's seaborne gas, a lot of those cargoes of LNG at the moment are ending up in Europe. At the same time. Russian flows of natural gas into Europe are low, but they by and large continue. And when you put all of that together, actually, judging by, you know, the normal fundamental metrics that we look at, the European gas market right here, right now today is actually relatively soft. But all of that is, of course, drowned out by the risk that Russian supplies may be impacted. Now, that remains very difficult to call in the short run. That's also the reason why you see European gas prices being so volatile. What does strike us to be the case is that Europe will wean itself off Russian gas over the next sort of 5, 6, 7 years towards the end of the decade. That will require a lot of LNG to come to Europe and also a fair amount of demand erosion. Neither of these things will happen with low prices. We have low conviction on what happens to European natural gas prices in the short run, admittedly, but we have high conviction that gas prices will need to stay high, if not very high by historical standards for several years to come to allow the European gas markets to move away from Russian supplies.Jens Eisenschmidt: Maybe one last word on metals. What are your expectations for metals, especially vis a vis what you just said about energy? Martijn Rats: If you look at metals for most of the metals, practically all of them, China is a huge factor in setting the demand outlook. So where would we be cautious at the moment is in the precise trajectory of the demand recovery in China. At the same time, we are quite concerned about the supply outlook, particularly as of Russia. So if you put all of that together, the metals suffer much more from weak Chinese demand, whilst the energy commodities are much more impacted by tight supply because of the Russian situation. So our preference over the last couple of months, for some time already, to be honest, has been to prefer the energy commodities. Whilst we think that the metals will probably stay a little weaker for some time to come because of their dominant exposure to Chinese demands factors. So there is a strong story to be told about many of the metals over the next sort of 5, 6, 7 years around energy transition. But right here, right now, we're biding our time a little bit with the metals. Jens, the 1Q GDP and inflation numbers confirms that supply shocks are hitting hard on the European economy, even after its strong post-COVID recovery in 2021. In your mid-year outlook, you refer to the set of challenges facing Europe as a perfect storm. Tell us why the situation looks so challenging from where you stand. Jens Eisenschmidt: Yes, you're right, Martin. It's very difficult in these days to get very optimistic about the growth outlook. I mean, we started the year actually on a much brighter note with a growth outlook of 3.9% for 22 for the euro area and had to revise it consecutively down to 3 to 2.7 and now to 2.6. And this is all on the back of as you mentioned, supply side shocks. First of all, we would have, of course, a huge hit to disposable income through inflation. Also, as we don't really see the wage developments catching quite up to that number. We are facing here a shock to confidence that we have seen emanating from both the war, but also from more generally the developments surrounding us. We have recently seen news from increased chances for more supply chain issues coming our way, for instance, out of China. Plus, on the other side of the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve has started to aggressively rein into their inflation that has significant domestic demand component to it. Overall, it's very difficult to see really bright spots here. That's why we have arrived at 2.6% in our forecast, that is despite significant dynamics coming out from the reopening and fiscal stimulus being on the road. So overall, it's a very challenging environment we are in. Jens Eisenschmidt: Martijn, thanks for taking the time to talk. Martijn Rats: Thanks, Jens was great to speak with you. Jens Eisenschmidt: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

20 Mai 20229min

As we continue to track the trends of 'slowbalization' and the shift towards a multipolar world, Mexico stands out as an economy uniquely positioned to benefit from these changes. Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy Michael Zezas and Mexico Equity Strategist Nik Lippmann discuss.-----Transcript-----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Nik Lippmann: I'm Nik Lippmann, Mexico Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Michael Zezas: And on this episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll be discussing the trend towards slowbalization within a multipolar world, a move that's been accelerated by recent geopolitical events, and in particular, the opportunity for Mexico and global investors. It's Wednesday, May 19th, at 1 p.m. in New York. Michael Zezas: So we've talked a lot on this podcast about the trends of slowbalization and the shift to a multipolar world. It's basically the idea that the globe is no longer solely organizing around the same political economy principles. And that, for example, the rise of China as an economic power with a political system that's distinctly different from the West, creates some barriers to economic interconnectedness. And we've talked a lot about how that can create new costs for Western companies and inflationary pressures, as all of a sudden you need to make investments, for example if you're Europe, to build an infrastructure to import natural gas from the U.S. so you don't have to buy it from Russia anymore. But this trend isn't all about creating headwinds and costs for the economy, we think there's opportunity, too. And there's regions that we think stand to benefit from an uptick in investment as American and European companies need to recreate that labor and market access in other parts of the globe. Mexico is one country that stands out to us, and so we want to speak with Nik Lippmann. Nik, can you tell us why you think Mexico is poised to benefit here? Nik Lippmann: So I'm sitting down in Mexico watching all this stuff play out from a number of different angles. And it's clear to me that Mexico will play a role. It's right next to the U.S., you have trade tariff protection, and multiple levels of rights are protected by the USMCA. And Mexico has advanced tremendously in terms of advancing the value chain and moving up in terms of complexity. So it's come a long way over the last sort of two decades. And today what we see in Mexico is really a strong ecosystem for electronics and cars and even some aerospace. When I look at this recovery, post-COVID in Mexico, I see kind of an average recovery, to be honest. But right below the headline number, we see something else going on. We see electronics growing 40%. Michael Zezas: So you mentioned a lot has changed in Mexico recently that makes this possibility more likely. What is it that changed? Why couldn't this have been a greater opportunity for Mexico earlier? Nik Lippmann: I think that after the trade tensions with China, the pandemic, we've just been getting, you know, higher freight costs. We've been getting a number of obstacles to the existing trade framework. So there are certain external policy factors that clearly play in and it's clear that the chip has kind of changed over the course of the beginning of this year and opened the eyes to some of the risks that could be emerging in other parts of the world. It's clear that Mexico's able and fairly high quantities of labor. There will be needs to educate and develop further infrastructure. But Mexico's position and its proven track record in terms of making electronics and cars. I think that can be expanded into other things. And we're seeing the early stages of that on the ground already today.Michael Zezas: So geopolitics is an obvious catalyst for Mexico to be a beneficiary generally. Specifically, what sectors of the economy in Mexico stand out to you as an opportunity? Nik Lippmann: So when we look at what Mexico does today, it makes cars and refrigerators and microwave ovens and stationary computers. It doesn't make laptops, tablets, and I don't think it will ever make tablets, mobile phones. I would imagine that we start seeing ecosystems and I always focus on ecosystems rather than individual companies, that you start having an emergence of some of the low tech health care, aerospace is growing tremendously, even pharma. And I think one of the things that I would expect to happen and it's difficult to have clear evidence today, but I would expect some corporates to at least diversify their existing supply chains rather than just relying on one country. I think Mexico just tends to benefit in that process. Michael Zezas: And so as a market strategist, what do you expect to see or how do you expect to see this play out in Mexico's equity markets? Nik Lippmann: By and large, I think this is a 3 to 5 year system or thesis or theme that will have a tremendous impact on potentially improving the narrative of Mexico. And it's going to impact a wide range of their corporates that would come on the U.S. side of the border. From the car space to electronics and machinery and what have you. And it doesn't happen from one day to another. But the country's fairly well positioned. I think in terms of the investability impact, clearly a couple of sectors stand out, such as real estate. This is a more than a near-term in theme that would cause us to change the recommendation from here till the year end 22. I think it's a key fact in terms of how we suggest investors to have allocation within Mexico focus on industrials, external sectors and real estate with exposure to the U.S.. And I think for a lot of investors in U.S. corporates, in manufacturing and out of the auto space and other sectors, this is a super important longer term theme that can affect and maybe redevelop to some degree in Mexico investment narrative. Michael Zezas: Nik, thanks for taking the time to talk. Nik Lippmann: Thanks, Mike, for inviting me. Michael Zezas: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps more people find the show.

18 Mai 20225min

As we forecast the remainder of an already uncertain 2022, new questions have emerged around economic data, inflation and the potential for a recession. Chief Cross Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter discuss.-----Transcript-----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets. Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we'll be talking about our outlook for strategy and markets and the challenges they may face over the coming months. It's Tuesday, May 17th, at 4 p.m. in London. Seth Carpenter: And it's 11 a.m. in New York. Andrew Sheets: So Seth, the global Morgan Stanley Economic and Strategy Team have just completed our mid-year outlook process. And, you know, this is a big collaborative effort where the economists think about what the global economy will look like over the next 12 months, and the strategists think about what that could mean for markets. So as we talk about that outlook, I think the economy is the right place to start. As you're looking across the global economy and thinking about the insights from across your team, how do you think the global economy will look over the next 12 months and how is that going to be different from what we've been seeing? Seth Carpenter: So I will say, Andrew, that we titled our piece, the economics piece, slowing or stopping with a question mark, because I think there is a great deal of uncertainty out there about where the economy is going to go over the next six months, over the next 12 months. So what are we looking at as a baseline? Sharp deceleration, but no recession. And I say that with a little bit of trepidation because we also try to put out alternative scenarios, the way things could be better, the way things could be worse. And I have to say, from where I'm sitting right now, I see more ways for the global economy to be worse than the global economy to be better than our baseline scenario. Andrew Sheets: So Seth, I want to dig into that a little bit more because we're seeing, you know, more and more people in the market talk about the risk of a slowdown and talk about the risk of a recession. And yet, you know, it's also hard to ignore the fact that a lot of the economic data looks very good. You know, we have one of the lowest unemployment rates that we've seen in the U.S. in some time. Wage growth is high, spending activity all looks quite high and robust. So, what would drive growth to slow enough where people could really start to think that a recession is getting more likely?Seth Carpenter: So here's how I think about it. We've been coming into this year with a fair amount of momentum, but not a perfectly pristine outlook on the economy. If you take the United States, Q1, GDP was actually negative quarter on quarter. Now, there are a lot of special exceptions there, inventories were a big drag, net exports were a big drag. Underlying domestic spending in the U.S. held up reasonably solidly. But the fact that we had a big drag in the U.S. from net exports tells you a little bit about what's going on around the rest of the world. If you think about what's going on in Europe, we feel that the economy in the eurozone is actually quite precarious. The Russian invasion of Ukraine presents a clear and critical risk to the European economy. I mean, already we've seen a huge jump in energy prices, we've seen a huge jump in food prices and all of that has got to weigh on consumer spending, especially for consumers at the bottom end of the income distribution. And what we see in China is these wave after wave of COVID against the policy of COVID zero means that we're going to have both a hit to demand from China and some disruption to supply. Now, for the moment, we think the disruption to supply is smaller than the hit to demand because there is this closed loop approach to manufacturing. But nevertheless, that shock to China is going to hurt the global economy. Andrew Sheets: So Seth, the other major economic question that's out there is inflation, and you know where it's headed and what's driving it. So I was hoping you could talk a little bit about what our forecasts for inflation look like going forward. Seth Carpenter: Our view right now is that inflation is peaking or will be peaking soon. I say that again with a fair amount of caution because that's been our view for quite some time, and then we get these additional surprises. It's clear that in many, many economies, a huge amount of the inflation that we are seeing is coming from energy and from food. Now energy prices and food prices are not likely to fall noticeably any time soon. But after prices peak, if they go sideways from there, the inflationary impulse ends up starting to fade away and so we think that's important. We also think, the COVID zero policy in China notwithstanding, that there will be some grudging easing of supply chain frictions globally, and that's going to help bring down goods inflation as well over time. So we think inflation is high, we think inflation will stay high, but we think that it's roughly peaked and over the balance of this year and into next year it should be coming down.Andrew Sheets: As you think about central bank policy going forward, what do you think it will look like and do you think it can get back to, quote, normal? Seth Carpenter: I will say, when it comes to monetary policy, that's a question we want to ask globally. Right now, central banks globally are generically either tight or tightening policy. What do I mean by that? Well, we had a lot of EM central banks in Latin America and Eastern Europe that had already started to hike policy a lot last year, got to restrictive territory. And for those central banks, we actually see them starting to ease policy perhaps sometimes next year. For the rest of EM Asia, they're on the steady grind higher because even though inflation had started out being lower in the rest of EM Asia than in the developed market world, we are starting to see those inflationary pressures now and they're starting to normalize policy. And then we get to the developed market economies. There's hiking going on, there's tightening of policy led by the Fed who's out front. What does that mean about getting back to an economy like we had before COVID? One of the charts that we put in the Outlook document has the path for the level of GDP globally. And you can clearly see the huge drop off in the COVID recession, the rapid rebound that got us most of the way, but not all the way back to where we were before COVID hit. And then the question is, how does that growth look as we get past the worst of the COVID cycle? Six months ago, when we did the same exercise, we thought growth would be able to be strong enough that we would get our way back to that pre-COVID trend. But now, because supply has clearly been constrained because of commodity prices, because of labor market frictions, monetary policy is trying to slow aggregate demand down to align itself with this restricted supply. And so what that means is, in our forecast at least, we just never get back to that pre-COVID trend line. Seth Carpenter: All right, Andrew, but I've got a question to throw back at you. So the interplay between economics and markets is really uncertain right now. Where do you think we could be wrong? Could it be that the 3%, ten-year rate that we forecast is too low, is too high? Where do you think the risks are to our asset price forecasts? Andrew Sheets: Yeah, let me try to answer your question directly and talk about the interest rate outlook, because we are counting on interest rates consolidating in the U.S. around current levels. And our thinking is partly based on that economic outlook. You know, I think where we could be wrong is there's a lot of uncertainty around, you know, what level of interest rate will slow the economy enough to balance demand and supply, as you just mentioned. And I think a path where U.S. interest rates for, say, ten year treasuries are 4% rather than 3% like they are today, I think that's an environment where actually the economy is a little bit stronger than we expect and the consumer is less impacted by that higher rate. And it's going to take a higher rate for people to keep more money in savings rather than spending it in the economy and potentially driving that inflation. So I think the path to higher rates and in our view does flow through a more resilient consumer. And those higher rates could mean the economy holds up for longer but markets still struggle somewhat, because those higher discount rates that you can get from safe government bonds mean people will expect, mean people will expect a higher interest rate on a lot of other asset classes. In short, we think the risk reward here for bonds is more balanced. But I think the yield move so far this year has been surprising, it's been historically extreme, and we have to watch out for scenarios where it continues. Seth Carpenter: Okay. That's super helpful. But another channel of transmission of monetary policy comes through exchange rates. So the Fed has clearly been hiking, they've already done 75 basis points, they've lined themselves up to do 50 basis points at at least the next two meetings. Whereas the ECB hasn't even finished their QE program, they haven't started to raise interest rates yet. The Bank of Japan, for example, still at a really accommodative level, and we've seen both of those currencies against the dollar move pretty dramatically. Are we in one of those normal cycles where the dollar starts to rally as the Fed begins to hike, but eventually peaks and starts to come off? Or could we be seeing a broader divergence here? Andrew Sheets: Yeah. So I think this is to your point about a really interesting interplay between markets and Federal Reserve policy, because what the Fed is trying to do is it's trying to slow demand to bring it back in line with what the supply of things in the economy can provide at at current prices rather than it at higher prices, which would mean more inflation. And there's certainly an important interest rate part to that slowing of demand story. There's a stock market part of the story where if somebody's stock portfolio is lower, maybe they're, again, a little bit less inclined to spend money and that could slow the economy. But the currency is also a really important element of it, because that's another way that financial markets can feed back into the real economy and slow growth. And if you know you're an American company that is an exporter and the dollar is stronger, you likely face tougher competition against overseas sellers. And that acts as another headwind to the economy. So we think the dollar strengthens a little bit, you know, over the next month or two, but ultimately does weaken as the market starts to think enough is priced into the Fed. We're not going to get more Federal Reserve interest rates than are already implied by the market, and that helps tamp down some of the dollar strength that we've been seeing. Andrew Sheets: And Seth thanks for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Andrew, it's been great talking to you. Andrew Sheets: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

18 Mai 202210min

The mid-year outlook for European stocks sees markets encountering a variety of challenges to equity performance, but there may still be some interesting opportunities for investors.-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of Morgan Stanley's European Equity Strategy Team. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the tricky outlook for European stocks for the second half of the year, and where we think the best opportunities lie. It's Monday, May the 16th at 2 p.m. in London. Although the global macro backdrop feels particularly complicated just here, we think the outlook for European equities is relatively straightforward... and, unfortunately, still negative. Over the last month or so our European economists have revised their GDP forecast lower, their inflation forecast higher, and brought forward the timing of ECB interest rate hikes - an unappealing combination for risk assets, even before we consider elevated geopolitical risks. Looking into the second half of the year, we think this backdrop will persist, with European economic growth slowing considerably, but with inflation remaining sticky at around 7% and putting considerable pressure on consumer finances. As well as the consumer, we think corporates are also going to feel the squeeze from this backdrop of slowing growth and rising prices. So far, Europe's corporate earnings trend has held up remarkably well this year. However, we think this is about to change and that a new downgrade cycle is likely to start in the coming months. This cycle is likely to reflect two drivers. First, weaker top line demand as new orders slows. And second, a squeeze on corporate margins as companies struggle to pass on their own input costs to customers. If we look at the gap between real GDP growth, which is low, and inflation, which is high, then the decline in margins could be really quite severe. Historically, the impact on equity performance from a period of weaker earnings is often offset by a rise in the price-to-earnings ratio, as it usually coincides with more dovish central bank policy. However, this is unlikely to be the case this time, given that inflation is so high and central banks were relatively late to start their hiking cycle. Hence now the pace of rate hikes starts to accelerate as earnings starts to slow. Of course, some of this difficult backdrop is already priced into markets, given that investor sentiment appears to be low. However, we do not believe that all of the bad news is yet discounted. European equity valuations are now down to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5, which is below the long run average. However, equity markets rarely trough on valuation grounds alone, and a further drop down towards 10-11x looks plausible to us over the summer. While we remain cautious on European equities at the headline level, we do see some interesting opportunities for investors to make money within the markets. First, at the country level, we continue to like the UK equity market and specifically the FTSE 100, which is the cheapest major global stock market. And it also benefits from having high defensive characteristics, which means it tends to outperform when global stocks are falling. Second, from a sector perspective, we prefer defensive names such as healthcare, telecoms, tobacco and utilities. We do expect to turn more positive on cyclicals later in 2022, but for now it is too early. On average, the best time to buy cyclicals is one month before economic leading indicators trough. The problem now is that these indices haven't started to fall yet. Lastly, we continue to favor value stocks over growth stocks. While the latter have underperformed quite significantly so far this year, we think valuations and positioning still remain too high and that a broader reset of expectations is needed before they become attractive again. One value strategy we particularly like here is buying stocks with attractive dividends, as we think these stocks offer an appealing alternative to bonds and provide some protection from higher rates and inflation. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

16 Mai 20223min

Stock-based employment compensation has gained popularity in recent years, and even investors who don’t receive employment compensation in stock should be asking, is SBC potentially dilutive to shareholders?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Todd Castano, Head of Global Valuation, Accounting and Tax within Morgan Stanley Research. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the interesting conundrum around stock based compensation. It's Friday, May 13th at 2 p.m. in New York. I don't need to tell listeners that 2022 has been rough on equity prices. And while it may be difficult to look at the double digit drop in the S&P or on your 41k, I'm going to share an interesting ripple effect from the market correction. And that's the impact on employee stock based compensation. And while some listeners may be saying, "this doesn't affect me because I don't receive compensation in stock", it doesn't mean it's not having an effect on your portfolio. But let me start at the beginning. For those unfamiliar, stock based compensation, often called SBC, is a form of compensation given to employees or other parties like vendors in exchange for their services. It's a very common way for companies to incentivize employees and to align employee and shareholder interest. When a company does well, everyone does well. Stock options, restricted stock, restricted stock units are currently the most common types of stock based compensation. Stock based compensation issuance has gained in popularity, particularly with startups and new issuances, allowing companies without much cash on hand to offer competitive total compensation rates and to attract and retain talent. In fact, 2021 marked the largest annual growth percentage in SBC cost at 27% year over year. Primarily because of new entrants to the equity market through initial public offerings and from the recovery from COVID that triggered performance based bonuses. Let's put a number on it. Stock based compensation is now approaching $250 billion annually, mostly concentrated in technology and communication service sectors. So here's where it gets interesting. While stock based incentives encourage employees to perform, they also don't require upfront cash payments. It follows that they also dilute the ownership of existing shareholders by increasing the potential number of shares outstanding. So now you may see where I'm going with this in terms of shareholders and your portfolio. While companies have been issuing more stock awards to employees, the double digit year to date decline in equity market has put a lot of these awards underwater. In other words, employees are essentially being paid less, meaning stock based compensation could have the opposite effect, lowering morale and sending some employees to the exits. To put another number on it, we estimate nearly 40% of Russell 3000 companies currently are trading below their average stock grant values. Healthcare technology firms in particular appear most exposed. And considering we're in a tight labor market, companies may be forced to issue more grants to offset equity value decreases, further diluting ownership to existing shareholders. I point all this out because SBC is generally treated as a non-cash expense and ignored from earnings. Market data vendors also often exclude outstanding awards from market capitalization calculations. So investors may underappreciate the potential dilution SBC brings to their shares. With more dilution on the way as companies attempt to right size employee pay. For investors, we believe stock compensation is a real economic expense and should be incorporated in valuation. It may not appear so in bull markets, but this correction has eliminated that reality. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

13 Mai 20223min

As consumers deal with rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and a desire to get outside in the ever changing COVID environment, the question is, what does this all mean for the future of eCommerce growth?-----Transcript-----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Rubin, Morgan Stanley's Latin America Retail and eCommerce Analyst. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the outlook for global e-commerce in the years ahead. It's Thursday, May 12th, at 2 p.m. in New York. Amid rising interest rates and persistent inflation, we've seen quite a lot of debate about the health of the consumer and the effect on eCommerce. If you couple those factors with consumers' desire to return to in-person experiences as COVID recedes, you can see why we've fielded a lot of questions about what this all means for eCommerce growth. To answer this question, Morgan Stanley's Internet, eCommerce and Retail teams around the world drew on both regional and company level data to fashion what we call, the Morgan Stanley Global eCommerce Model. And what we found was that the forward looking picture may be more robust than some might think. While stay at home trends from COVID certainly drove outsized eCommerce growth from 2019 to 2021, we found the trend should stay stronger for longer, with eCommerce set to grow from $3.3 trillion currently to $5.4 trillion in 2026, a compound annual growth rate of 10%. And there are a few reasons for that. First, the shift toward online retail had already been in place well before the COVID acceleration. To put some numbers behind that, eCommerce volumes represented 21% of overall retail sales globally in 2021. That's excluding autos, restaurants and services. So, while the rise of eCommerce during the first year of COVID in 2020 is easily explained, the fact that growth persisted in 2021, even on a historically difficult comparison, is evidence, in our view, of real behavioral shift to shopping online. Another factor that supports our multi year growth thesis is a trend of broad based eCommerce gains, even for the highest penetration countries and categories. As you might expect, China and the U.S. represent a sizable 64% of global eCommerce volumes, and these countries are the top drivers of our consolidated market estimates. But we see higher growth rates for lower penetrated regions, such as Latin America, Southeast Asia and Africa, as well as categories like grocery and personal care. Interestingly, however, in our findings, no country or vertical represented a single outsized growth driver. Looking at South Korea, which is the global leader in e-commerce, we expect an increase from 37% of retail sales in 2021 to 45% in 2026. For the electronics category worldwide, which leads all other major categories with 38% penetration, we forecast penetration reaching 43% in 2026. And while there are some headwinds due to logistics in certain countries and verticals, we believe these barriers will continue to come down. Another encouraging sign is that globally, we have yet to see a ceiling for eCommerce penetration. We identify three fundamental factors that underpin our growth forecasts and combine for what we see as a powerful set of multi-year secular drivers. First, logistics. We see a big push towards shorter delivery times and lower cost or free delivery. The convenience of delivery to the door is a top differentiating factor of eCommerce versus in-store shopping. And faster speeds can unlock new eCommerce categories and purchase occasions. Second, connectivity. Internet usage is shifting to mobile, and smartphones and apps are increasingly the gateway to consumers, particularly in emerging markets. And these consumers, on average, skew younger and over-index for time spent on the mobile internet. And third is Marketplace. We see a continued shift from first party owned inventory to third party marketplace platforms, connecting buyers and sellers. For investors, it's important to note that global eCommerce does not appear to be a winner-take-all market. And this implies opportunity for multiple company level beneficiaries. In particular, investors should look at companies with forecast share gains, exposure to higher growth categories, and discounted trading multiples versus history. Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

12 Mai 20224min