US-China Trade Truce, Cooling CPI, and Crypto Legislation: PALvatar Market Recap, June 11 2025

U.S. equity indexes were mixed heading into the final two hours of the trading week, a fitting close as investors continue to struggle with data that suggest inflation has peaked and a Federal Reserve that, at least in public word, seems as hawkish as ever. “On November 10, 2022, inflation died,” Warren Pies writes in the most recent note from 3Fourteen Research. “And, despite our view that inflation is going to decelerate quickly over the coming year, there are still risks that could resurrect the beast.” Is the U.S. leading the way lower, or will inflation flare again? Warren joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why bonds are the place to be and equities are at the top end of their range. We also hear from Kokou Agbo-Bloua, the Global Head of Economics at Societe Generale, about the ongoing transition from a lower-for-longer to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Watch the full conversation between Kokou Agbo-Bloua and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3UPnZSG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

18 Nov 202234min

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked and equity indexes sagged Thursday, as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Federal Reserve still has a lot of work to do before it brings inflation under control. That follows San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s remark on Wednesday that a pause in rate hikes was “off the table.” Meanwhile, the United Nations has brokered a deal that will get Ukrainian grain transiting the Black Sea safely, easing pressure on global food prices, and China’s COVID policy remains as opaque as ever. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of the Morning Navigator newsletter, to interpret recent Fedspeak and to talk about what’s happening in commodities markets. We also hear from Juliette Declercq about how the Federal Reserve can navigate a soft landing and why she’s focused on U.S. equities. Watch the full conversation between Juliette Declercq and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3AoHkSt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

17 Nov 202234min

U.S. retail sales were up more than expected in October, posting the biggest month-over-month gain since February, but equity indexes struggled after Target posted disappointing third-quarter results and warned of a soft fourth quarter too. The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield declined, though the two-year/10-year curve inversion deepened on expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary course. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool currently shows 4.4% fourth-quarter growth. Marc Chandler, the managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex would take issue with that forecast: “The US economy is expected to struggle under the weight of past monetary tightening,” he notes, “and what we do not appreciate is the extent of fiscal tightening.” Marc joins Maggie Lake to talk about the big picture, how it’s reflected in currency pairs and global yields, what we should expect from the Federal Reserve, and why we should be skeptical of China. We also hear from Roger Hirst about the broader implications of a dollar pull-back. Watch the full Insider Talks episode featuring Roger Hirst here: rvtv.io/3AiGXJi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

16 Nov 202233min

Softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index data for October reinforced the hope that inflationary pressures are finally beginning to ease and fired a strong open for equities Tuesday morning. “Be patient,” advises Dale Pinkert, “and wait for pullbacks.” Pinkert, the head of trader development at TradeGateHub, joins Maggie Lake to talk about whether the trend has changed for the U.S. dollar and key levels to watch for the euro, precious metals, and soft commodities. We also hear from Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group about the technical indicators that guide his trading day. Watch the full conversation between Dave Floyd and James Helliwell here: rvtv.io/3AiGXJi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

15 Nov 202235min

U.S. equity indexes drifted into mildly positive territory two hours shy of Monday’s close, continuing to digest October’s Consumer Price Index data, relatively dovish words from Federal Reserve insiders, and the still-unraveling FTX situation. With inflation seeming to ebb as a global concern, President Joe Biden is in Bali for his first face-to-face meeting with President Xi Jinping. “I continue to maintain that China is a significant risk for global investors,” notes Komal Sri-Kumar. “That goes for both investors in that country as well as for global markets in general.” The founder and president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies joins Weston Nakamura to talk about consequences of too-rapid a transition from overly accommodative to overly restrictive monetary policy and what comes next for the economy. We also hear from performance coach Denise Shull of The Rethink Group about how to manage emotion and maximize effective decision-making in high-stress situations. Watch the full conversation between Denise Shull and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3E4p2XT. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

14 Nov 202241min

Justin Huhn, the founder of Uranium Insider, joins Harry Melandri for a compelling conversation about the resurgence of nuclear as a baseload power option and rising demand for uranium in the latest episode of The Next Big Trade. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

13 Nov 202254min

Anthony Scaramucci has worked in two of the most pressure-driven environments in America – investment banking at Goldman Sachs and the communications shop in the White House during the Trump administration. And he’s seen and experienced all sorts of success and failure. In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, the founder and co-managing partner of SkyBridge Capital and chairman of the SALT Conference shares with Maggie Lake how his humble upbringing shaped his career and what it taught him about the value of authenticity. **NOTE - This interview was recorded on October 10th, 2022** Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

12 Nov 202258min

It appears that inflation finally eased last month, as the rate of underlying price increases excluding energy and food slowed from a 40-year high. And U.S. stocks are staging their biggest rally since 2020. Weston Nakamura welcomes Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to break down October Consumer Price Index data and provide some context for today’s “melt-up.” Then, Weston and CrossBorder Capital CEO Michael Howell assess the broader investing climate, including the key issue driving price action: liquidity. “The next few months will be challenging,” Howell wrote in his most recent note to clients, “as recession hits earnings and central banks raise rates further.” Michael and Ash Bennington discuss “Everything You Need To Know About Liquidity” here: rvtv.io/3Eo5wah. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

10 Nov 202243min