SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:How behavioural finance leaves investors under-allocated to Trend Following strategiesHow to perceive momentum dataWhy the steady flow of market news often has little value for Trend FollowersEmbracing simplicityThe need to avoid too many filters in your systemHow much should be risked per trade-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes03:02 – Macro recap from Niels04:48 – Weekly review of performance11:59 – Q1; James: What are your views on momentum indicators diverging against price action?24:56 – Q2; Frank: What is your view on the relationship between the stop and the look-back period?28:52...

18 Jul 20211h 8min

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends.Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:28 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes02:02 - Macro recap from Niels12:07 - Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy?31:37 - Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days? What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake? How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’?40:01 - Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer?47:27 - Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns 50:48 - Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance58:11 - How newer money managers can differentiate themselves...

11 Jul 20211h 8min

Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possibleOptimal exits from hugely profitable tradesHow to engage in related to your investment approachOver complicating a trading strategyAcceptable margin amountsSpread-trading using a Trend Following strategy-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro02:28 - Macro recap from Niels03:53 - Weekly review of returns11:01 - The commodities reflation trade and Moritz’s trade in Lumber14:32 - Q1 & Q2; Andreas: How do you justify your fee structure? What long-term returns should we expect from a short-term CTA? At what point does enhancing a strategy become over-complicating it?29:20 - Q3; Mark: What are some of the best look back periods?34:13 - Q4; Frank: Do CTAs place any importance on the Commitment of Traders report?41:14 - Q5; John: What is a normal...

4 Jul 20211h 4min

We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes.You can read some of Rob’s work here.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Trend Following as a solution to rising inflationThe major stock indices being of composed of mainly companies are losing moneyTrend Following on ETFsPredicting future returns using current risk exposureRetail traders versus professional money managers-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener

28 Jun 20211h 29min

Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:Commodity prices falling, even after recent inflation fearsHow price action incorporates all narrativesTrend Following on optionsThe extra costs of short-term tradingSingle stocks versus index futuresIf Technical Analysis forms part of a typical Trend Following systemMark's '3 D's' of inflation-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Intro01:37 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes02:32 – Macro recap from Niels06:19 – Weekly review of performance16:53 – Q1; Omar: Why is Trend Following associated mostly to futures?31:32 – Q2; Mohammed: How do I overcome a lack of patience and discipline?35:33 – Q3;...

20 Jun 20211h 18min

Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Jerry on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:29 - Macro recap from Niels08:01 - Weekly review of returns and the narrative change around Bitcoin19:01 - Q1; Omar: What books do you recommend for Trend Following educational material?27:52 - Q2; Jacob & Sam: Can Bitcoin futures be traded safely even though you can’t trade them over the weekend?35:40 - Q3; Mark: Could Chesapeake and Dunn Capital trade as an ETF to allow more people exposure to their strategies?44:22 - Q4; Vinicius: What are your thoughts about Trend Following on single stocks?50:08 - Q5; Antonio: Should we be less diversified and more concentrated with our trades?01:03:39 - Why having rules isn’t enough to justify a robust trading system01:15:24 - Thoughts on measuring skew01:19:05 - Benchmark performance updateCopyright ©...

13 Jun 20211h 21min

Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changing the narrative around Trend Following.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn this episode, we discuss:The misconceptions around the safety & profitability of a typical 60/40 portfolioThe recent Federal Reserve decision to tighten fiscal policyEric's last appearance on the show, which was at the exact bottom of the 2020 market crashThe varying speeds of Trend FollowingWhy low-volatility returns may not mean that a strategy isn't riskyOvercoming behavioural biasesManaged futures as a great benefit to investor's portfoliosThe flight out of fixed incomeWhy crypto investors could benefit from Trend FollowingChanging the narrative around Trend Following-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Intro01:59 - Macro recap from Niels03:22 - Weekly review of returns10:41 - What could Trend Following bring to the crypto space?16:36 - How can CTAs change the narrative around investing so that they are included in the...

7 Jun 20211h 26min

What happens when an unexpected major event occurs and all of your supposedly diversified investments suddenly become correlated, before heading sharply to the downside? Jason Buck and his partner at Mutiny Fund have been thinking about this question for a long-time, and have created a portfolio designed to protect against these ‘Black Swan’, high-volatility events. Jason has been a long-time listener of the show, so it was only right that I invited him on to discuss some of the methods and thinking behind Mutiny Fund, and how these approaches can provide protection and profits during all market environments.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HEREIn This Episode, You’ll Learn:How Jason got to where he is todayIf the initial risks Jason set out to protect his clients against, have changedWhy CTAs could be considered ‘long-volatility’ assets that provide protection during broad market selloffs such as 2020The benefits of ‘ensemble’ investingThe opposite requirements of building wealth versus keeping wealthWhy a sample size of 100 years is still just an anomalyWhy the typical ‘diverse’ portfolio might be riskier than investors realiseWhat a ‘long-volatility’ asset looks likeThe history of long-volatility assetsThe term ‘crisis alpha’ and what it means to him and his clientsHow to overcome the challenges of educating investors about volatility-event risksWhether the addition of long-volatility components to portfolios today has affected his initial approachWhy the Sharpe Ratio is often misunderstood as a risk measurement toolHow much, and why, returns vary among different long-volatility managersHow to approach position sizing with black swan events in mindSome of the common investor mistakesHow to choose between different Trend Following managersHow to create a strategy for inflationary and deflationary environmentsIf less-liquid assets can be safely incorporated into a portfolioHow to analyse backtests properlyIf Jason uses Gold and Bitcoin in his long-volatility strategiesWhat keeps Jason up at night in terms of risks-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to <a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

1 Jun 20211h 17min