Markets Pricing in US Strikes on Iran

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 23rd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Richard Haass, Senior Counselor with Centerview Partners & President Emeritus at Council on Foreign Relations, joins for a discussion on the Israel-Iran conflict. Iran vowed retaliation and continued attacks on Israel following US strikes on its nuclear facilities, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets. The conflict has also raised concerns about oil prices and inflation.
2) Robert D. Kaplan, author and foreign affairs expert, joins for a discussion on the Iran-Israel conflict and whether the US involvement stops at this weekend's strikes. The US operation targeted nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and included 125 aircraft, strikes by Tomahawk missiles, and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs.
3) Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, on why oil has now become central to her 2025 S&P target. US equity futures advanced and crude prices fluctuated on speculation that Iran's response to Washington's bombing of its nuclear sites is unlikely to significantly disrupt oil traffic from the Middle East.
4) Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and of North America Strategy for Standard Chartered Bank, brings us into the market open and discusses how the Fed's approach to rates could be reshaped by a potential oil and inflation spike. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.39%, and a data release showed private sector activity in the euro area barely grew in June, as erratic US trade policy and geopolitical conflicts leave companies uncertain about what's next.
5) Paul Sankey, Lead Analyst at Sankey Research, discusses the path for oil and energy from here. Oil prices initially surged after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but later dropped as fears of an immediate supply disruption faded. The oil market remains gripped by an escalating crisis, with risks including a potential disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on crude infrastructure in rival suppliers.

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