New U.S. Tariffs Shake EU Trade: What It Means for Agri-Food and FMCG | Ep 4

🔍 Podcast Summary:

In this episode, we explore the impact of the new 20% U.S. tariffs on European imports and the growing concern among American and European farming groups. With more than 20% of U.S. farm income tied to exports and critical EU imports under threat, we unpack the risks to agri-food supply chains, potential EU countermeasures, and what industry leaders should do now to prepare for prolonged trade disruption.

🧠 Zenith Expert View:

This isn’t just another tariff spat. It’s a direct disruptor to complex, interdependent supply chains — especially in dairy, grains, protein, and agri-inputs.

➡️ Export risk: Over 20% of U.S. farm income comes from exports. Any erosion of market access due to retaliatory measures will affect price realisation and volume throughput, particularly in high-exposure categories like cheese, milk powders, and pork.

➡️ Import inflation: EU fertiliser and ag-tech inputs are essential to many U.S. producers. Tariff-driven cost increases will pressure margins already strained by commodity volatility and high financing costs.

➡️ Market share erosion: For EU suppliers, a 20% U.S. tariff means immediate competitiveness loss — especially in commoditised categories. Rivals like Brazil (soy), New Zealand (dairy), and Canada (grains) may seize share quickly, and regaining it later is not guaranteed.

➡️ Strategic ambiguity: The European Commission is weighing counter-tariffs — but the Copa-Cogeca stance reflects the internal tension: retaliation may politically satisfy, but economically backfire.

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