Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: John Stoltzfus & Jay Bryson

- Andrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at Citi- Lisa Shalett, CIO: Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley- Rep. Mike Lawler, Republican House Representative from New York- Maya MacGuineas, President at Committee For A Responsible Federal BudgetAndrew Hollenhorst, Chief US Economist at Citi, talks about his outlook for the US economy and labor market amid uncertain tariff policy and tax negotiations. Lisa Shalett, CIO: Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley, discusses asset allocation as the S&P 500 looks to close out one of its best weeks of 2025. Rep. Mike Lawler, Republican House Representative from New York, talks about tax bill negotiations in Congress. Maya MacGuineas, President at Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget, discusses the Federal deficit and how it could be affected by the GOP tax bill.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

16 Mai 28min

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 16th, 2025Featuring:1) Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Saxon Woods, on the yet-to-be-seen effects of tariffs on global markets and why she expects more equity volatility in 2025. The S&P 500 on track for one of its best weeks this year, as easing trade tensions between the US and China buoyed appetite for risky assets.2) Meghan Robson, Head of US Credit Strategy at BNP Paribas, on why she remains cautious on credit markets in an uncertain environment. The dollar weakened again against major peers and the 10-year yield was lower after declining Thursday, as economic data spurs speculation the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. This, as traders await negotiations around the US budget with its promise of large tax cuts and a potential impact that will have on the fiscal deficit. 3) Bill Lee, Chief Economist at the Milken Institute, brings us into the market open and discusses uneasy progress in US trade deals and what he makes of the outcome of the US-China temporary trade truce. The 90-day reduction in tariffs has already led to a surge in transpacific shipping volumes, with bookings from China to the US particularly strong, and freight rates are rising as a result.4) Ellen Wald, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, joins for a discussion on low oil prices and what President Trump's trip to the Middle East could mean for the outlook for gas and energy prices. The International Energy Agency expects a global glut in oil supply this year and next due to increasing production and slowing demand growth.5) Kelsey Berro, Executive Director: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Investment Management, discusses reduced tail risk of a hard landing and JPM's case for sub-trend growth in 2025. Some officials, like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, expects the US economy to slow this year but not fall into recession. He also expects one rate cut in 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

16 Mai 32min

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature conversations with Michael Darda & Elizabeth Economy. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

15 Mai 5min

- Jamie Dimon, CEO and Chairman of JPMorgan Chase- Jim Zelter, President at Apollo Global Management- Gene Seroka, Executive Director at the Port of LA- Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADPBloomberg's Francine Lacqua sits down exclusively with Jamie Dimon, CEO and Chairman of JPMorgan Chase from the JPMorgan Global Markets Conference in Paris. Jim Zelter, President at Apollo Global Management, offers his outlook for markets and inflation amid growing economic uncertainty in the US and globally. Gene Seroka, Executive Director at the Port of LA, discusses the outlook for imports and shipping as US-China trade relations ease. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, reacts to retail sales and jobless claims and and offers her outlook for the consumer.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

15 Mai 42min

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 15th, 2025Featuring:1) Michael Darda, Chief Economist at Roth Capital Partners, talks about a decreased recession risk as trade deals begin and why Trump's raising taxes and increasing the marginal tax rate won't necessarily lead to economic and financial upheaval. Traders are looking ahead to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a slew of economic reports to gauge the sustainability of the recent equity rally, with billionaire Steve Cohen predicting a 45% chance of a US recession.2) Gene Seroka, CEO at the Port of LA, joins for a discussion on shipping and why normalizing relations with China won't lead to a surge in imports. Recently, Seroka has noted that the US-China tariff truce likely won't cause businesses to frontload inventory.3) Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist, North America at the MasterCard Economics Institute, reacts to retail sales and talks about her outlook for the consumer. Market participants have a downbeat view of retails sales heading into the day, but alternative measures of spending suggest tariff frontrunning has continued during the month. Signs of a resilient consumer could continue to support stocks.4) Elizabeth Economy, Hargrove senior fellow and co-director of the U.S., China and the world program at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, talks about the "total reset" in the US' relationship with China, whether the US or China are winning in trade negotiations so far, and whether we'll see meaningful change in Chinese market practices. In a sign of discord today, Beijing has pushed back against a US decision aimed at curbing Chinese-made artificial intelligence chips.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Financial Times story on Gen Z changing what it means to be a reader and TripAdvisor's top destinations for travelers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

15 Mai 41min

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. In this episode, we feature a conversation with Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff. Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACFSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

14 Mai 4min

- Jens Nordvig, CEO and founder at Exante Data- Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock- Holly O'Neill, President: Consumer, Retail & Preferred at Bank of America- Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and former President of NY Federal Reserve Jens Nordvig, CEO and founder at Exante Data, discusses Dollar strength and FX moves amid recent trade turmoil and a reshaping of the US economic landscape. Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, talks about her outlook for global growth, US investment, and inflation, as well as upside inflation risks. Holly O'Neill, President: Consumer, Retail & Preferred at Bank of America, discusses the state of the American consumer. Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and former President of NY Federal Reserve, talks about his Opinion column on US-China trade tensions and the Fed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

14 Mai 29min

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 14th, 2025Featuring:1) Ken Rogoff, professor at Harvard University and former IMF Chief economist, joins for a two block, extended discussion on his new book, "Our Dollar, Your Problem," the "exorbitant privilege" of the dollar as the global reserve currency, and how the Trump administration is expediting the unseating of the dollar's position on the global stage. Ccurrency-centric headlines out of South Korea suggest that the dollar’s consolidation this month may be imperiled if signs grow that the US administration is now shifting focus from trade to exchange rates. At the heart of the Dollar Index’s immediate decline is a lingering concern that the Trump administration may pursue policies that involve countries selling the dollar to cure perceived economic imbalances stemming from a strong currency.2) Wei Li, Chief Global Investment Strategist at BlackRock, joins for an extended discussion on tariffs causing further contractions, a US stock rally, and the fear of sticky US inflation. The stock recovery in stocks got an extra boost this week after the US and China cut trade tariffs, US inflation slowed, and earnings came in better than expected. Wall Street strategists are skeptical about how much further stocks can run.3) Lindsay Rosner, Head: Multi-Sector Investing Goldman Sachs Asset Management, talks about signs of bottoms up in the credit world, upside inflation risks, and consumer strength's effects on economic growth. The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point yesterday and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the Federal Reserve is expected to stay put in evaluating potential implications of tariffs.4) David Bailin, CEO at CIO Capital and former Chief Investment Strategist at Citi, brings us into the market open and talks about his belief the US could enter a "Compression Recession" that could blindside everyone. Tensions around President Trump's trade war cooled and inflation data showed limited impacts, but there could be underlying risks to the economy.5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT story on rival nations recruiting talent cast aside by American universities and a WSJ story on workers feeling overpaid.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

14 Mai 55min