Top Traders Unplugged12 Jul 2025

SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski

Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don’t, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper’s historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be capturing that others aren’t. This episode isn’t about defending trend - it’s about understanding what environments it needs, and what signals suggest we’re getting closer.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:48 - What has been on our radar recently?

07:43 - Crazy moves in US copper

09:45 - Industry performance update

14:31 - How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures?

23:01 - Why trend following is struggling at the moment

31:22 - Rebalancing in trend following is key

33:57 - A better alternative trend following?

37:32 - The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry

44:41 - The key variables for understanding regimes

53:21 - Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate

58:16 - Mechanical vs. regression based replication

59:33 - Defining tracking error

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

Denne episoden er hentet fra en åpen RSS-feed og er ikke publisert av Podme. Den kan derfor inneholde annonser.

Episoder(941)

SI405: Why Most Trend Following Improvements Should Fail ft. Rob Carver

Trend following investors are constantly searching for ways to improve performance, but not every improvement survives contact with reality. Rob Carver joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to explore whether i...

20 Jun 1h 12min

GM102: China Built a Trap. Germany Set It. America Fell In. Europe Is Next ft. Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis joins Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation on trade imbalances, globalization and the future of the world economy. Drawing on decades of research into China, Europe and financial ...

17 Jun 1h 23min

SI404: When Trend Following Meets Equities ft. Eric Crittenden & Andrew Beer

Trend following has long promised and delivered diversification, crisis protection and uncorrelated returns. Yet many investors still struggle to hold it through difficult periods. In this conversatio...

13 Jun 1h 7min

UGO12: Why the Next Financial Crisis Could Change America Forever ft. Danielle DiMartino Booth

As Kevin Warsh prepares to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, a deeper question emerges: has the Fed reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve? Cem Karsan sits down with Danielle DiMa...

10 Jun 53min

SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski

Geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks, and shifting market regimes are reshaping the investment landscape. Marat Molyboga and Katy Kaminski joins us to explore why managed futures have historically ...

6 Jun 1h 24min

ALO35: Why Macro Investing Is Becoming More Systematic ft. George Patterson

How do quantitative investors adapt when markets, technology and macro regimes are constantly changing? In this conversation, Alan Dunne sits down with George Patterson, CIO of PGIM Quant Solutions, t...

3 Jun 1h 1min

SI402: Why Markets Can’t Stop Trending ft. Richard Brennan

What happens when markets stop behaving like machines and start behaving like living systems? In this episode, Richard Brennan joins Niels to explore passive investing, complex adaptive systems, volat...

30 Mai 1h 30min

IL49: The Space Economy Is No Longer Science Fiction ft. Rainer Zitelmann

On this episode we are joined by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann, to discuss his book New Space Capitalism: The Entrepreneurial Path to the Stars. We discuss why government-funded space programs were initially s...

27 Mai 1h 1min