SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan

SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan

As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:19 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode!

05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it

07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth

08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration

11:01 - Industry performance update

13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment?

24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment

30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event?

32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us?

41:21 - Is a firing on the horizon for Powell?

46:53 - Inflation is becoming hard to hedge

56:15 - The Emperor's New Clothes moment

58:05 - Addressing Paul Jones' asset allocation

01:03:35 - Will AI make us all unemployed?

01:10:13 - Is Libertarianism is a bigger threat to the US than Socialism?

01:13:28 - Where are markets heading according to Karsan?

01:28:27 - What is up for next week?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Episoder(924)

SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git

SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git

What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift val...

8 Nov 20251h 2min

GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan

GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan

Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and beli...

5 Nov 20251h 11min

OI19 BONUS: Living With Ed Seykota ft. David Druz

OI19 BONUS: Living With Ed Seykota ft. David Druz

Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instin...

3 Nov 202541min

SI372: QIS Unboxed: Rules, Wrappers, and Reality ft. Nick Baltas

SI372: QIS Unboxed: Rules, Wrappers, and Reality ft. Nick Baltas

As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure...

1 Nov 202558min

OI19: The Trader Who Never Spoke...Until Now ft. David Druz

OI19: The Trader Who Never Spoke...Until Now ft. David Druz

Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now...

29 Okt 20251h 36min

SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan

SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan

Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into struc...

25 Okt 20251h 17min

UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan

UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan

Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of ...

22 Okt 20251h 7min

SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne

SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne

Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed ...

18 Okt 20251h 1min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
e24-podden
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
pengepodden-2
pengesnakk
rss-politisk-preik
finansredaksjonen
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
utbytte
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
rss-markedspuls-2
lederpodden
rss-sunn-okonomi
rss-pa-konto
rss-fa-makro