SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer

SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer

Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----


Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn,

Episode TimeStamps:

01:52 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:11 - Industry performance update

07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment

09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper

14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk

17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies

22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed?

28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets?

33:35 - The structure of an allocator

36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in replication?

42:14 - Trend is doing better than people expect

43:49 - The Voldemort of the trend following space

51:02 - Are ultra diversified portfolio merely a party trick?

56:25 - The challenges of slippage and implementation cost

01:03:49 - It all comes down to the predictability of trends

01:06:23 - Let's talk about the data, please

01:09:01 - Common misunderstandings of trend

01:12:12 - What is up for next week?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Episoder(916)

TTU44: Buy Low & Sell High: Is It Really That Easy? ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 2of2

TTU44: Buy Low & Sell High: Is It Really That Easy? ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 2of2

In the second part of our conversation with the founder of Whitmore Capital Management, we learn the daily challenges, and lessons learned right from the founder and owner of a fledgling firm. We dive...

13 Nov 20141h 23min

TTU43: The Case For Currencies As An Asset Class ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 1of2

TTU43: The Case For Currencies As An Asset Class ft. Mark Whitmore of Whitmore Capital Management – 1of2

Our next guest started his firm back in 2012, and we’re talking to him at a special moment in the company’s evolution as it starts to gain outside capital and make its mark in the industry. Listen in ...

10 Nov 20141h 22min

TTU42: Why You Need this Trading Strategy TODAY ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 2of2

TTU42: Why You Need this Trading Strategy TODAY ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 2of2

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with researcher and co-author of one of the definitive books on trend following. In this conversation, we dive into the the models that she used in writing the bo...

6 Nov 20141h 5min

TTU41: Trend Following Expert Explains All ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 1of2

TTU41: Trend Following Expert Explains All ft. Kathryn Kaminski of AlphaSimplex – 1of2

Our next guest is different than any guest we’ve had before, as she is not a fund manager but has spent much of her life’s work researching and writing about the topic of trend following. She is a tru...

3 Nov 20141h 8min

TTU40: What To Do If You Are Making Too Much Money! ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 2of2

TTU40: What To Do If You Are Making Too Much Money! ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 2of2

Welcome to Part 2 of our conversation with Managed Futures expert and President Mike Harris of Campbell & Company. In this episode we delve into the specifics of Campbell & Company’s trading programs,...

30 Okt 20141h 9min

TTU39: President of Famous CTA Firm Tells All ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 1of2

TTU39: President of Famous CTA Firm Tells All ft. Mike Harris of Campbell & Company – 1of2

This episode goes in-depth into the history of one of the most well-known managed futures firms in the world, Campbell & Company. We explore the beginnings of the company, how they have dealt with cha...

27 Okt 20141h 9min

TTU38: The Real Secret Behind Trend Following & How It Works ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 2of2

TTU38: The Real Secret Behind Trend Following & How It Works ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 2of2

In the second part of our conversation with AHL founder and Aspect Capital Director, we dive into the details of his firm’s strategies and models. We explore how the models evolve, how he deals with r...

9 Okt 20141h 8min

TTU37: How to Build a Multi-Billion$ Trend-Following Firm ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 1of2

TTU37: How to Build a Multi-Billion$ Trend-Following Firm ft. Martin Lueck of Aspect Capital – 1of2

In this episode, we get an exciting behind-the-scenes story of one of the most famous systematic trading firms of its time, AHL. Our guest is one of the firms founders and takes us from the company’s ...

6 Okt 20141h 9min

Populært innen Business og økonomi

lydartikler-fra-aftenposten
stopp-verden
dine-penger-pengeradet
e24-podden
rss-borsmorgen-okonominyhetene
rss-penger-polser-og-politikk
pengepodden-2
finansredaksjonen
livet-pa-veien-med-jan-erik-larssen
utbytte
tid-er-penger-en-podcast-med-peter-warren
stormkast-med-valebrokk-stordalen
morgenkaffen-med-finansavisen
okonomiamatorene
liberal-halvtime
pengesnakk
rss-politisk-preik
lederpodden
rss-pa-konto
rss-markedspuls-2