Top Traders Unplugged26 Jul 2025

SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer

Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:52 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:11 - Industry performance update

07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment

09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper

14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk

17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies

22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed?

28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets?

33:35 - The structure of an allocator

36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in replication?

42:14 - Trend is doing better than people expect

43:49 - The Voldemort of the trend following space

51:02 - Are ultra diversified portfolio merely a party trick?

56:25 - The challenges of slippage and implementation cost

01:03:49 - It all comes down to the predictability of trends

01:06:23 - Let's talk about the data, please

01:09:01 - Common misunderstandings of trend

01:12:12 - What is up for next week?

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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

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