Episode #46: Bubble Logic: Why AGI and Drones Feel Inevitable

Welcome to Stewart Squared podcast with the two Stewart Alsops. In this episode, they explore the OpenAI–Microsoft partnership through the lens of historic “stupid agreements” in tech, starting with Software Arts and VisiCorp’s flawed VisiCalc deal. The conversation traces the evolution of tech bubbles from the early software industry to today’s AI hype, questioning whether artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a real milestone or just a moving target. They discuss DARPA’s shifting role from Cold War-era innovation to grantmaking and debate whether private companies like Elon Musk’s ventures or Anduril are now the true engines of R&D. The episode also examines drone warfare’s impact on modern conflicts, Israel’s Iron Dome under pressure, and whether drones are redefining the roles of missiles and artillery. Alongside these threads, they touch on social media’s possible collapse under the weight of AI companions and how military tech spillovers have historically fueled civilian innovation.

Check out this GPT we trained on the conversation

Timestamps

00:00 – Opening with the OpenAI–Microsoft partnership, comparing it to the VisiCalc deal between Software Arts and VisiCorp as an early example of “stupid agreements” in tech.
05:00 – Exploring AGI as a moving target, historical shifts in AI definitions, and Zuckerberg’s push for a superintelligence lab with Jan LeCun and Alexander Wang in the spotlight.
10:00 – Early tech bubbles from 1979–1983, the rise of software distribution models, and parallels to modern AI and social media ecosystems.
15:00 – The decline of DARPA’s direct innovation role, outsourcing research to academia and private R&D, and the rise of venture capital replacing the “D” in R&D.
20:00 – Elon Musk’s Neuralink and SpaceX as examples of private moonshots, with reflections on China’s industrial strategy and Anduril’s challenge to defense giants.
25:00 – Drone warfare’s transformative role in Ukraine and Israel, Iron Dome’s performance under Iranian missile barrages, and hypersonic missile threats.
30:00 – Predictions about the death of social media, the rise of AI companions replacing human interaction, and concerns over dependency on chatbots.

Key Insights

1. The episode opens by framing the OpenAI–Microsoft partnership as part of a long lineage of “stupid agreements” in tech history, comparing it to the 1979 deal between Software Arts and VisiCorp over VisiCalc. That deal, which offered unusually high royalties to the developer, illustrates how early software companies lacked models for fair agreements, much like today’s AI partnerships are navigating uncharted territory without clear definitions of AGI or its implications.
2. AGI itself is questioned as a concept, with the Stewarts noting it has always been a moving target. What was considered “intelligent” decades ago—like natural language processing or chatbot interactions—no longer qualifies, and they suggest AGI may never arrive in the way science fiction imagines. Instead, the focus has shifted to “superintelligence” as a rebranded goal, driven as much by marketing and competition as by real technical progress.
3. The discussion highlights how DARPA’s role has diminished since its Cold War peak, transitioning from direct research leadership to a grant-disbursing organization. Today, the best researchers are often lured away by private firms offering massive pay packages, leading to concerns that the U.S. government has lost the capacity for “moonshot” innovation and now depends on companies like SpaceX, Neuralink, and Anduril to carry the torch.
4. The Stewarts examine the rise of Anduril and similar startups as existential threats to legacy defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. These incumbents are described as slow-moving monopolies that rely on cost-plus contracts, while newcomers promise faster, cheaper, and more modern systems to meet evolving military needs.
5. Drones emerge as a central theme in discussing the changing nature of warfare. Rather than replacing missiles outright, drones are creating new tactical possibilities, from Ukraine’s improvised attacks on Russian bombers to Israel’s use of drones to preempt missile launches. This shift suggests a future where drones and missiles coexist but with differentiated roles.
6. The episode also critiques the societal impact of AI, noting growing reports of “ChatGPT psychosis,” where users form unhealthy dependencies on chatbots. This feeds into a broader prediction about the “death of social media,” as AI companions may one day supplant human relationships online, raising ethical and psychological concerns.
7. Finally, they reflect on the cyclical nature of technology bubbles—from semiconductors and personal computing to social media and AI—arguing that hype cycles are inevitable but also essential for driving experimentation, investment, and eventual breakthroughs, even if most fail to deliver on their promises.