Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1

Are we facing a low growth future? - Part 1

One of the big policy debates in Australia and around the world right now is whether economic growth will be slower in the future than in the past. Nearly a decade after the Global Financial Crisis and economic growth remains weak in many rich nations. Australia has been an exception to the malaise, but growth has slowed as the mining boom winds down. A growing number of voices are wondering whether we’ve entered a “new normal” of slower economic growth, which would have big implications for Australians’ future living standards, our public policy choices and the state of our politics. In part 1 of this two-episode podcast, with the help of Australian Perspectives Fellow Brendan Coates and Productivity Growth Director Jim Minifie, we take a deep dive into the evidence that economic growth may be slower in the future and what might explain it. Stay tuned for part 2 where we will discuss what policymakers could do in response. Further readings To help listeners navigate the debate, below are a few references cited in the podcast discussion. Cardiff Garcia, Productivity and innovation stagnation, past and future, FT Alphachat, 2016 [warning: paywall]. A great overview of all the various explanations of why productivity growth has slowed (with hyperlinks). https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/03/11/2155269/productivity-and-innovation-stagnation-past-and-future-an-epic-compendium-of-recent-views Jim Minifie, Stagnation nation, Grattan Institute, 2017. Is Australia at risk of economic stagnation as the mining investment boom fades? While the decline in business investment is no cause for panic, policymakers must do more to ensure we remain a dynamic, growing economy. https://grattan.edu.au/report/stagnation-nation Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith (Bank of England), Secular drivers of the global real interest rate, Bank of England, 2015. Real interest rates, both globally and in Australia, have declined sharply over the past 30 years. Population ageing, rising inequality, slower future global growth and a global glut of savings by emerging market governments (among other factors), have pushed down real interest rates. The authors conclude most of these forces will persist, which could leave real interest rates as low as one per cent for the foreseeable future. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp571.pdf Robert Gordon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US Standard of Living since the Civil War, 2016 Robert Gordon’s weighty tome is the most prominent of the wave of economists warning that economic growth will be slower in future. But rather than reading the 750 pages of Gordon’s book, check out this review by The Economist instead. https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21685437-why-economic-growth-soared-america-early-20th-century-and-why-it-wont-be

Episoder(316)

Grading the 2025 NAPLAN results

Grading the 2025 NAPLAN results

Over 1.3 million students sat the NAPLAN tests in March, which provides a health check on Australia's education system. Now, the results are in. But what do they reveal about the state of education in Australia? In this podcast, host Kat Clay is joined by education experts Amy Haywood and Molly Chapman to unpack the latest NAPLAN data. They discuss how students are tracking, and what can be done to improve the results across Australia. Donate to Grattan https://grattan.edu.au/donate

1 Aug 16min

Gas: Love it or hate it? It's complicated...

Gas: Love it or hate it? It's complicated...

Some people love it, some people hate it. But whatever you feel about gas, Australia urgently needs a gas strategy. Listen to our energy experts Alison Reeve and Tony Wood discuss the highly contested role of gas as Australia strives for net zero.

7 Jul 24min

How to save the NDIS

How to save the NDIS

The NDIS is a vital part of Australia’s social fabric, but the scheme has grown too big, too fast.  Grattan’s new report, Saving the NDIS: How to rebalance disability services to get better results, presents a four-step plan to make the NDIS sustainable. In this podcast, report authors Sam Bennett, Mia Jessurun, and Hannah Orban are joined by Senior Fellow Alastair McEwin to discuss how to rein in costs while ensuring disabled Australians get the support they need. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/saving-the-ndis/ Full podcast transcription: https://grattan.edu.au/news/how-to-save-the-ndis/

30 Jun 25min

Why superannuation tax breaks need to be cut

Why superannuation tax breaks need to be cut

Over decades of compulsory contributions, Australians have amassed $4 trillion in retirement savings. But behind this headline success lies a range of unresolved policy problems. The promise was a more comfortable retirement. The reality is a taxpayer-subsidised inheritance scheme. Listen to our CEO Aruna Sathanapally in conversation with Grattan’s superannuation policy experts, Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney, as they critique a system that needs reform. For more information, visit: https://grattan.edu.au/

23 Jun 23min

How to improve Australians' access to specialist care

How to improve Australians' access to specialist care

No one looks forward to seeing a specialist—whether it’s a cardiologist, paediatrician, or psychiatrist. A referral often signals your GP is concerned about a serious health problem: a suspicious lump, a complex condition, or a health issue that needs specialised attention. For many Australians, it can be a worrying time. And those worries only get worse when faced with high specialist fees and long wait times. In this episode, Senior Associate Elizabeth Baldwin is joined by co-authors Peter Breadon and Dominic Jones to unpack the findings of Grattan Institute’s latest report, Special treatment: Improving Australians' access to specialist care. Together, they explore why specialist care is so hard to access—and what can be done to fix it. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/special-treatment-improving-australians-access-to-specialist-care/

15 Jun 19min

The Maths Guarantee: How to Boost Students' Learning in Primary Schools

The Maths Guarantee: How to Boost Students' Learning in Primary Schools

Australia has a maths problem: one in three Australian school students fail to achieve proficiency in maths. When maths is taught well, children and the nation benefit. But taught poorly, students are robbed of a core life skill. Adults with weaker maths skills have worse job prospects and are more likely to struggle with routine tasks such as managing budgets and understanding health guidance. Join Amy Hayward, Education Deputy Program Director, in conversation with co-authors Nick Parkinson and Dan Petrie, about how to boost students' maths proficiency in primary schools. Read the report: https://grattan.edu.au/report/maths-guarantee/

13 Apr 21min

Election 2025: Evaluating the housing policies

Election 2025: Evaluating the housing policies

Whether it’s increasing rent or mortgage repayments, the surging cost of buying a house or simply finding a secure place to live, Australians are struggling more than ever with housing costs. And with a federal election around the corner, cost-of-living is one of the biggest issues facing voters. Labor is spruiking the housing policies that it legislated over its first term, including the newly expanded Help to Buy scheme. The Coalition is promising to allow first home buyers to use their super to help purchase their home. Both parties are proposing a two-year ban on foreign residents purchasing existing homes. But do the policies on offer from the major parties go far enough to help make housing more affordable for more Australians? In this podcast, two Grattan experts, Brendan Coates and Matthew Bowes, evaluate the housing policies on offer – and suggest that whoever wins the election should pursue more comprehensive reforms. Read the 2025 Orange Book: https://grattan.edu.au/report/orange-book-2025/

7 Apr 27min

Analysing the 2025 federal Budget

Analysing the 2025 federal Budget

Is the 2025 federal Budget right for these economic times? In this special pre-election Grattan podcast, our experts give their verdict. Host Kate Griffiths is joined by Grattan CEO Aruna Sathanapally and health policy expert Peter Breadon to analyse what was good in the Budget, what was missing, and what the next government – whether Labor or Coalition, majority or minority – should do to build a better Australia.

28 Mar 16min

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