America’s next top model: predicting the midterm results

America’s next top model: predicting the midterm results

Our model, built to predict the outcome of this year’s midterm elections, tips Republicans to take the House and Democrats to retain control of the Senate. The model’s architect discusses how and why he built it, and our polling guru explains why polls matter. Why there’s no nuclear-arms race in Asia—yet. And Egypt wants the Rosetta Stone back, but it’s not that simple.

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Episoder(1937)

Poll vaulter: Brazil’s surprise election result

Poll vaulter: Brazil’s surprise election result

Jair Bolsonaro, the incumbent president, did unexpectedly well—giving his campaign a boost and foreshadowing a tough run-up to the second round. Malawi’s incipient democracy stands as a shining region...

3 Okt 202223min

Form-annex trick: Russia’s Ukraine-seizure bid

Form-annex trick: Russia’s Ukraine-seizure bid

After a series of sham referendums, President Vladimir Putin is expected to annex four partly occupied regions of Ukraine. We ask what risks that move would pose. What has driven China’s president to ...

30 Sep 202223min

Lula loop: meeting Brazil’s presidential front-runner

Lula loop: meeting Brazil’s presidential front-runner

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president, looks well-placed to win a third term. But which Lula would Brazil get—the fiscal conservative or the populist spendthrift? Germany has an earned...

29 Sep 202227min

Off the top of their heads: Iran’s widespread protests

Off the top of their heads: Iran’s widespread protests

Women are burning their hijabs on bonfires and hacking off their hair—but the unrest has come to be about far more than the heavy hands of the morality police. The murder of Abe Shinzo, a former Japan...

28 Sep 202225min

In for a penny, in for a pounding: Britain’s economic gyrations

In for a penny, in for a pounding: Britain’s economic gyrations

The markets are so far entirely unconvinced that the new administration’s Reagan-esque economic plans will work to spur growth—just look at sterling's tumble. In Tibet, China’s mass collection of DNA ...

27 Sep 202223min

Giorgia on my mind: Italy’s far-right government

Giorgia on my mind: Italy’s far-right government

Italians have voted decisively for a coalition of right-wing parties, with Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy, the likely next prime minister. What this means for Italy, Europe and the wa...

26 Sep 202224min

Empire State v real-estate empire: Donald Trump’s legal woes

Empire State v real-estate empire: Donald Trump’s legal woes

Letitia James, New York’s attorney general, announced a sweeping lawsuit against Donald Trump, his businesses and three of his children. He’s also being investigated over allegations of election inter...

23 Sep 202225min

Inflation nation: The Fed raises rates, again

Inflation nation: The Fed raises rates, again

America’s Federal Reserve made its third straight 0.75% interest-rate hike, with Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chair, warning that more hikes would follow. But with inflation still high, and labour markets...

22 Sep 202223min

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