James Sweeney on the Money View Framework and COVID-19’s Implications for the Macro Economy
James Sweeney is the chief economist at Credit Suisse and joins us today as a part of our ongoing special coverage to talk about the coronavirus or COVID-19 and its implications for the economy. Specifically, David and James discuss what this pandemic means for the plumbing of the financial system, interest rates, and the type of recession we might experience. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings James’s Credit Suisse profile: https://www.credit-suisse.com/microsites/conferences/aic/en/speakers/cs-experts/james-sweeney.html Related Links: *Global Money Notes #27: Covid-19 and Global Dollar Funding* by Zoltan Pozsar and James Sweeney https://plus.credit-suisse.com/rpc4/ravDocView?docid=V7k0P32AC-WEqAJ7 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
16 Mar 202050min
Megan Greene on How to Use Monetary and Fiscal Policy to Fight the Coronavirus Crisis
Megan Greene is a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School and a senior fellow in international economics at Chatham House. Formerly, Megan was a chief economist on Wall Street and she currently has a bi-weekly column in the Financial Times on global macroeconomics. She joins the show today to talk about the coronavirus and the appropriate policy response to it as well as the future countercyclical macro policy in the United States. David and Megan also discuss the Fed’s future framework, arguments against the recent 50 basis point rate cut, and why the Fed should consider following the ECB’s lead on TLTROs as well as negative interest rates. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Megan’s Twitter: @economistmeg Megan’s website: https://economistmeg.com/about/ Related Links: *Coronavirus May Be Worse Than Wall Street Is Wagering* by Megan Greene https://www.ft.com/content/44c9391c-5489-11ea-a1ef-da1721a0541e David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
11 Mar 202056min
Ben Moll on the Basics of HANK Models and How They Can Be Applied to Policymaking
Ben Moll is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, and is well known for his work on income and wealth distribution in macroeconomics and its implications for policy. Ben joins the show today to talk about this work and provide a look into the growing field of heterogeneous agent models. David and Ben also discuss the history of macro thought, the implications of different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, and what HANK models mean for forward guidance and other more general makeup policies. The transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Ben’s Twitter: @ben_moll Ben’s LSE website: https://benjaminmoll.com/ Related Links: *Monetary Policy According to HANK* by Greg Kaplan, Ben Moll, and Giovanni Violante https://www.princeton.edu/~moll/HANK.pdf *Household Balance Sheet Channels of Monetary Policy: A Back of the Envelope Calculation for the Euro Area* by Jiri Slacalek, Oreste Tristani, and Giovanni Violante https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14245 *Heterogeneous Agents Macroeconomics Has a Long History, and it Raises Many Questions* by Beatrice Cherrier https://beatricecherrier.wordpress.com/2018/11/28/heterogeneous-agent-macroeconomics-has-a-long-history-and-it-raises-many-questions/ David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
9 Mar 202058min
Scott Sumner on How Central Banks Should Respond to the Coronavirus Threat
Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, and a returning guest to Macro Musings. Scott joins the show today to talk about the recent market turmoil caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus and its implications for monetary policy. David and Scott also discuss how the Fed should respond to a possible pandemic, why monetary policy is preferable to fiscal policy during a crisis, and how to approach the central bank credibility problem. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Scott’s blog: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/ Scott’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/scott-sumner Related Links: *It’s Time for the Fed to Take On the Coronavirus Threat* by David Beckworth https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/02/its-time-for-the-fed-to-take-on-the-coronavirus-threat/ *The Era of Fed Power is Over. Prepare for a More Perilous Road Ahead.* by Greg Ip https://www.wsj.com/articles/shrinking-influence-of-central-banks-ends-decades-of-business-as-usual-11579103829?mod=rsswn David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
2 Mar 202054min
Paul Schmelzing on the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline of Global Real Interest Rates
Paul Schmelzing is an economic historian, a visiting scholar at the Bank of England and a postdoc at the Yale University School of Management. Paul has written an influential new paper on the long history of interest rates titled, "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018." Specifically, Paul and David discuss the implications of this paper’s findings for secular stagnation theory, Thomas Piketty’s inegalitarian wealth spiral, and for macroeconomic policy more generally. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Paul’s Twitter: @paul_schmelzing Paul’s Harvard profile: https://scholar.harvard.edu/pfschmelzing/bio Related Links: * Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311–2018* by Paul Schmelzing https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
24 Feb 20201h
Ernie Tedeschi on Output Gaps, Labor Markets, and the State of the Economy
Ernie Tedeschi is a policy economist and the head of fiscal analysis at Evercore ISI, a macro advisory firm. He is also an occasional contributor to The Upshot section at The New York Times. Previously, Ernie was a senior advisor and an economist at the US Department of Treasury. His research interests include the federal budget, monetary policy, and labor markets. Ernie joins the show to talk about output gaps, full employment, labor markets, and the state of the economy. Specifically, Ernie and David discuss Ernie’s recent articles titled *Participation in the Hot Labor Market* and *Pay is Rising Fastest for Low Earners, One Reason? Minimum Wages.* Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/monetary-policy Ernie’s Twitter: @ernietedeschi Ernie’s blog: https://medium.com/bonothesauro Related Links: *Participation and the Hot Labor Market* by Ernie Tedeschi https://medium.com/@employamerica/participation-and-the-hot-labor-market-a84ef77a3bb1 *Pay is Rising Fastest for Low Earners. One Reason? Minimum Wages.* by Ernie Tedeschi https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/upshot/minimum-wage-boost-bottom-earners.html *Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects* by Stephanie Aaronson, Tomaz Cajner, Bruce Fallick, Felix Galbis-Reig, Christopher L. Smith, and William Wascher https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495029 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
17 Feb 20201h 5min
Brent Skorup on Autonomous Vehicles, Flying Cars, and Airspace as a Scarce Resource
Brent Skorup is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center where he specializes in transportation technology, telecommunications, aviation, and wireless policy. Brent also serves on the FCC’s broadband deployment advisory committee and the Texas Department of Transportation’s autonomous vehicle task force, and he has recent spoke on the topic of airspace design at the Global Air Traffic Management Conference in Dubai. He joins the show today to talk about the future of transportation, including flying cars and highways in the sky. Brent and David also discuss the concept of auctioning airspace, the macroeconomic implications of technological innovation, and how to build or improve infrastructure for autonomous vehicles in the future. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02102020/brent-skorup-autonomous-vehicles-flying-cars-and-airspace-scarce-resource Brent’s Twitter: @bskorup Brent’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/brent-skorup Related Links: *Your Flying Car Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think* by Brent Skorup https://www.wsj.com/articles/your-flying-car-will-be-here-sooner-than-you-think-1542327046 *Auctioning Airspace* by Brent Skorup https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/skorup-auctioning-airspace-mercatus-working-paper-v1.pdf *Smart Cities, Dumb Infrastructure* by Korok Ray & Brent Skorup https://www.mercatus.org/publications/technology-and-innovation/smart-cities-dumb-infrastructure *Auto Purchase Trends, Mobility as a Service, and Autonomous Vehicle Adoption* by Brent Skorup https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/auto-purchase-trends-mobility-service-and-autonomous-vehicle-adoption David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
10 Feb 202055min
Marc Lavoie on Canadian Central Bank Policy, Real-time Payments, and the Post-Keynesian Tradition
Marc Lavoie is a professor of economics at the University of Ottawa and an author a recent article on the Bank of Canada’s operating system. Marc is also the coauthor of a popular textbook titled, *Monetary Economics: An integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production, and Wealth.* He joins the show today to talk about these works and more. David and Marc also discuss differences between post-Keynesian and mainstream macroeconomics, the history and defining characteristics of Canada’s corridor operating system, and what ideal central bank policy might look like for Canada in the future. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02032020/marc-lavoie-canadian-central-bank-policy-real-time-payments-and-post Marc’s University of Ottawa profile: https://uniweb.uottawa.ca/members/942/profile Marc’s Institute for New Economic Thinking archive: https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/experts/mlavoie Related Links: *A System with Zero Reserves and with Clearing Outside of the Central Bank: The Canadian Case* by Marc Lavoie https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09538259.2019.1616922 *Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth* by Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-137-08599-3 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
3 Feb 20201h 1min
