164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

Episoder(177)

Profits Taken, S&P500 Key Levels, Options Flow Analysis

Profits Taken, S&P500 Key Levels, Options Flow Analysis

Profits taken today from last week based off these key levels in the S&P500 right now. We'll also go over what I'm seeing in the options market that tells me that the upside may be limited over the ne...

6 Feb 202311min

Big Week for the S&P500

Big Week for the S&P500

It's a big week for the S&P500 with Consumer Confidence, FOMC rate hike decision and guidance, big tech earnings, and Friday's jobs report. Whew!Weekly Forecast provided by AlphaCrunching.com (use cod...

30 Jan 20237min

Explained: VIX Up, Market Up with Brent Kochuba

Explained: VIX Up, Market Up with Brent Kochuba

Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma.com is back on the show to explain a recent article they posted about getting used to both the VIX being up while the market is up. Most of us think of the VIX as the "fea...

27 Jan 202327min

SPX Trade Idea For This Week

SPX Trade Idea For This Week

Has the market already priced the weaker than expected inflation numbers that keep coming out? With January OpEx upon us and the Core PCE inflation report coming out next week, here's a trade idea I'm...

18 Jan 202317min

S&P 500 Analysis, CPI, and Earnings

S&P 500 Analysis, CPI, and Earnings

Quick discussion of key levels in the S&P500 as we head into the CPI report with earnings season kicking off the day after. Want to connect with your host and other listeners of this podcast?Go to htt...

11 Jan 20238min

3 Trading Truths You Must Accept

3 Trading Truths You Must Accept

There are several trading truths that veteran traders have accepted and incorporated into their trading in order to be successful over time. In this episode, we'll talk through 3 of them that beginnin...

5 Jan 202318min

Profit Taking Concepts For Credit Spreads

Profit Taking Concepts For Credit Spreads

In this episode, we'll discuss when to take profits when trading credit spreads. https://AlphaCrunching.com is the forecast tool mentioned in this episode. Here's the link to the chart with trade deta...

14 Des 202215min

Are You Guilty of Survivorship Bias?

Are You Guilty of Survivorship Bias?

Want the latest in trading research and support the podcast at the same time?Come join me at https://www.patreon.com/VerticalSpreadOptionsTrading to get started. Summary:Survivorship bias or survival ...

29 Nov 20228min

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