164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

Episoder(177)

Robinhood Stock Trading Research

Robinhood Stock Trading Research

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Options Research for Trading Weekly Options

Options Research for Trading Weekly Options

We're expanding last week's weekly options study by adding a moving average filter to our trades. The goal here is to determine if adding a would be bullish filter will improve the results of this alr...

8 Jun 202012min

Weekly Options Research Study

Weekly Options Research Study

I'm sharing a 3 year study in this episode around trading weekly options on SPY and SPX. There are 3 expirations per week. Monday, Wednesday, and Friday and I wanted to see if there was a difference i...

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SPX Weekly Options With Al Losada (Part 2)

SPX Weekly Options With Al Losada (Part 2)

Al Losada is the founder of Simple Option Strategies. Here are a few ways to find more about him online.Website: https://www.simpleoptionstrategies.com/Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/...

14 Mai 202034min

SPX Weekly Options With Al Losada (Part 1)

SPX Weekly Options With Al Losada (Part 1)

Special guest Al Losada is on the show today talking SPX options trading. The episode went over an hour so I decided to split into two separate episodes. In this first episode, Al and I discuss how we...

8 Mai 202044min

Case Study: Debit Spread vs. Leveraged ETF

Case Study: Debit Spread vs. Leveraged ETF

There are different ways to get long and different ways to trade with leverage. In this episode, we're going to look at both by comparing two leveraged ways of getting long the S&P500. We're going t...

21 Apr 202019min

Crisis Alpha Strategy for Black Swan Events

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A Crisis Alpha Strategy is meant to generate profits during market corrections, pullbacks, or even black swan type events and can be traded as a stand alone strategy.In this episode, we'll discuss a q...

8 Apr 202018min

Best Options Strategy For Beginners Explained

Best Options Strategy For Beginners Explained

Check out the SPX Income Masterclass:https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.net/spaces/4688450If you're new options trading, I think you're really going enjoy this episode on what I think is the best o...

25 Mar 202021min

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