164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

164: Expectancy vs. Win Rate: What Really Matters

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.

We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.

You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.

👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

Episoder(177)

113: The Life Cycle of an Options Trade

113: The Life Cycle of an Options Trade

In this episode, I got to speak to Mat Cashman, Principal of Investor Education at OCC. Mat takes us through the life cycle of an options trade by explaining the inner workings of the market and some ...

28 Mar 202447min

112: Edge Alert: SPX Weekly Options with Alpha Crunching Insights

112: Edge Alert: SPX Weekly Options with Alpha Crunching Insights

In this new segment, we'll discuss current micro trends and patterns in the stock market using insights from Alpha Crunching. Alpha Crunching provides time series analysis and forecasts for the S&P500...

20 Mar 202410min

111: To Hold or Not to Hold to Expiration

111: To Hold or Not to Hold to Expiration

In this episode, we'll try to answer the question of whether or not holding to expiration is better than taking profits early when being a net options seller. We'll explore this question by comparing ...

5 Mar 202413min

110: Rolling an Iron Condor for Beginners

110: Rolling an Iron Condor for Beginners

In this episode, I detail a recent Iron Condor trade I ended up rolling up and out due to bullish stock market conditions.I'll explain how I was able to recenter the Iron Condor around the current pri...

23 Feb 202413min

109: Stock Market Startup: GexBot.com

109: Stock Market Startup: GexBot.com

In this episode, I got to speak with John from GexBot.com to talk about how the stock market startup came to be as well as the information it provides short term traders using GEX (gamma exposure) and...

16 Feb 202437min

108: Building a Position in Tesla (TSLA)

108: Building a Position in Tesla (TSLA)

In this episode, I discuss how I'm building a position with Tesla stock and two things that spooked me after entering. Depending on when you are listening to this episode, my position may have changed...

31 Jan 202412min

107: The Trick To Buy Sell Indicators

107: The Trick To Buy Sell Indicators

In this episode, we'll cover some tips an tricks when putting Buy Sell Indicators on your charts so that you don't get chopped up and frustrated. Finding the usefulness of the indicator should be the ...

21 Jan 202413min

106: First Trading Mistake of 2024

106: First Trading Mistake of 2024

I made my first trading mistake of 2024 on the very first trading day of the year. So in this episode, I walk you through that day and the mistake I made with my trade. Alpha Traders Club is where I h...

7 Jan 202413min

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